Tom Suozzi buoyed by higher Democratic turnout, decline in GOP voting

Nassau Democrats improved their turnout operation, Republican voter participation declined and Queens voters turned out overwhelmingly for Democrat Tom Suozzi — all factors that helped Suozzi defeat GOP nominee Mazi Melesa Pilip in the 3rd Congressional District special election, experts said.

Suozzi defeated Pilip, a second-term Nassau County legislator, 54% to 46% to fill the balance of expelled former GOP Rep. George Santos’ term.

In Nassau, where 80% of 3rd District voters live, 39% of all voters were registered Democrats, compared with 35% in the 2022 general election when Santos won. Thirty-five percent of the vote came from Republicans in the special election, compared with 37% in 2022.

Unaffiliated voters in Nassau comprised 23% of the vote, down from 21% in 2022.

Suozzi beat Pilip in the Queens portion of the district by 23%, or 5,710 votes. Party turnout data for Queens was not immediately available.

Nassau Democrats credited their success to a strong absentee balloting operation and a major push during early voting that together gave them more than 10,000 votes before Election Day on Tuesday.

Republicans pointed to several issues that may have hampered them, from an early morning snowstorm Tuesday to the Democrats’ national fundraising advantage. Suozzi's campaign outraised Pilip's by a margin of 2-to-1, and outside Democratic groups outspent Republican groups by a similar margin.

“There was no indication of this coming,” said former Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford), a vice chairman of the Nassau Republican Committee who helped select Pilip as the party's nominee.

“Every issue in the race was geared to us, to Republicans,” King said, referring to issues such as the surge in migrants across the U.S. southern border. “Suozzi basically ran as a Republican.”

Former Rep. Steve Israel, an Oyster Bay Democrat who represented the 3rd District from 2001 until 2017, said he believed Republicans had taken recent wins for granted, after capturing major countywide offices and local town supervisor seats over the past few years.

“The Suozzi campaign had dominance in the air, television, radio, mail and vastly outspent the Republicans. The Republicans decided to cede the air because they were convinced they would win it on the ground with their legendary voter pull operation,” said Israel, a former chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who owns Theodore’s Books in Oyster Bay.

“What they didn’t anticipate was 8 inches of snow on the ground, which impeded their turnout,” Israel said.

The 3rd District covers Nassau County's North Shore, dips south into Levittown and Massapequa, and includes a portion of northeastern Queens.

Early voting advantage

Democrats cast 11,000 more votes than Republicans before Election Day during the nine-day period of early voting or through mail-in absentee ballots, elections board data in Nassau and Queens shows.

In Nassau, 24,196 Democrats voted early, compared with 19,876 Republicans. In Queens, 5,389 Democrats voted early, compared with 2,029 Republicans.

Democrats also had the advantage with mail-in ballots. Of absentee ballots returned in Nassau as of Election Day, 6,510 were from registered Democrats, 3,426 were from Republicans and 2,147 were from voters with no party affiliation.

Jay Jacobs, chairman of the state and Nassau Democratic Party, said he and party leaders had an aggressive “chase” operation to call voters who requested absentee ballots but hadn’t returned them.

Jacobs said the party knew early on that, “we’ve got to bank a lot of votes, and that’s what we set out to do.”

No red wave

On Monday, Republican leaders rallied their troops at party headquarters in Franklin Square before their traditional election-eve barbecue.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), chairwoman of the Republicans’ House Conference, spoke, as did former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley), who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2022.

Pilip spoke last, and vowed to end Suozzi’s political career.

“I promise you, tomorrow, Feb. 13, you are going to remember this day, because Mazi Pilip will knock you down,” she said as she finished her speech.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) also projected confidence.

“Long Island is the brightest shade of red it’s been in years,” D'Esposito said at the rally. On Tuesday, “There’s going to be a bright, bright red light shining from the 3rd Congressional District,” he said.

Nassau GOP Chairman Joseph Cairo said he thought the snow hurt the party’s turnout operation.

The party’s base of seniors often vote early in the day, when snow was falling hardest. The GOP offered rides to the polls to 100 voters who requested them, Cairo said.

“The snow falls on Republicans and Democrats,” he said. He continued: “We didn’t make it up, the weather hurt us. I understand the snow affects both of us, but I think we were more adversely affected than the Democrats.”

Cairo said he planned to review the returns, including the Democrats' absentee balloting advantage. “That's one of the things we have to look at and adjust our game plan accordingly,” he said.

David Hopkins, a Boston College political science professor, said well-educated suburban voters have moved in greater numbers to the Democratic Party and may be more likely to vote in low turnout special elections.

Also, Suozzi’s name recognition and frenetic schedule on the campaign trail may have played better than it would have in an election where other state and federal races were on the ballot, Hopkins said.

Democratic Rep. Grace Meng, of Queens, campaigned for Suozzi, who also spent a significant amount of time in Queens.

At a rally for Pilip in Whitestone last month, GOP New York City Councilwoman Vickie Paladino said of Suozzi: “Tom is walking around like he owns this place. I can’t turn around without seeing his face.”

After the rally, Paladino said she took it as a sign that Suozzi was worried about his standing in the larger Long Island portion of the district.

On that night, as Pilip was being feted by a friendly crowd, Suozzi was down the street, at a civic organization forum that Pilip had declined to attend.

Fifty-three percent of registered voters in the Queens portion of the district are Democrats, compared with 35% in the Nassau portion.

Correction: In the 3rd District special election, 39% of all voters were registered Democrats, compared with 35% in the 2022 general election. Thirty-five percent of voters were Republicans, compared with 37% in 2022. Unaffiliated voters comprised 23% of the vote, compared with 21% in 2022. An earlier version of this story incorrectly described what the percentages represented.