TPS policy change: NYS economy and Venezuelan immigrants could both lose

The bicycle Frank rides to his restaurant job on Northern Boulevard in the Jackson Heights section of Queens doubles as a food delivery vehicle for his side hustles at DoorDash and Uber.

Since coming to New York in 2023, the 34-year-old Venezuelan national said he has been constantly on the go. When he’s not working, he’s taking English classes and in between, there are WhatsApp calls to his wife and three young children back home.

But he said a change in U.S. policy under President Donald Trump has sparked fear in him about potential deportation from the United States, where he says his life "has drastically improved."

The Queens resident, who asked Newsday not to publish his full name to avoid being targeted by immigration authorities, is one of about 600,000 Venezuelans in the United States who are set to lose their temporary protected status designation in upcoming months.

The designation, under a program Congress established in 1990, doesn't create a path to citizenship. But it allows noncitizens to live and work in the country legally and is granted to people from countries the Department of Homeland Security designates as unsafe to return to because of reasons including ongoing armed conflict and environmental disasters.

With Venezuelans filling jobs in industries including construction, agriculture, health care, hospitality and food service in New York State, advocates for immigrants and some experts who have studied immigration's effect on the economy said the end to their temporary protected status could have detrimental consequences on not just them, but on businesses and consumers.

However, the economic effect can be hard to gauge without knowing precisely how many Venezuelans with TPS status in New York are working, said Elizabeth Jacobs, director of regulation and policy at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Immigration Studies. The research and advocacy group generally favors lower levels of immigration.

Extension revoked

On Jan. 28, President Donald Trump's new Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem rescinded a Jan. 10 decision from her predecessor, Alejandro Mayorkas, that extended the TPS designation for all Venezuelans for another 18 months.

On Feb. 1, she also terminated the 2023 TPS designation for Venezuela, leaving nearly 350,000 Venezuelans without protections come April 7. The other 250,000 people who applied under the 2021 designation are expected to lose their protected status on Sept. 10, unless an extension is issued.

Homeland Security has determined extending TPS for Venezuela would run counter to national interests, according to a notice in the Federal Register. It said TPS has allowed members of the Venezuelan gang known as Tren de Aragua to settle into the country.

TPS designations were granted because Venezuela was considered unsafe to return to, with the January order from the administration of former President Joe Biden referencing a "severe humanitarian emergency the country continues to face due to political and economic crises" under Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

But under Noem, the agency determined that amid "notable improvements" in the crime level, the economy and public health, it's no longer unsafe.

In September, the State Department had reissued a travel advisory to warn American citizens of dangers of either living in or traveling to the country, following the 2019 suspension of U.S. embassy operations in Caracas, Venezuela.

The advisory said "violent crimes, such as homicide, armed robbery, kidnapping, and carjacking are common in Venezuela," that political rallies take place "often with little notice," and that police and security forces "have instituted a brutal crackdown on anti-Maduro demonstrations."

New York influx

New York City, which since 2022 has seen an influx of more than 230,000 new migrants — a large share from Venezuela — has helped 11,500 Venezuelans apply for TPS, according to a spokesperson for New York City Mayor Eric Adams. Currently more than 16,000 migrants from Venezuela remain in shelters, the spokesperson added. 

Figures for Venezuelan migrants living on Long Island weren't available. The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey showed 35,000 Venezuelans living in the state, with 1,194 in Nassau and 1,472 in Suffolk. But those figures include people of Venezuelan ancestry who were born in and outside of the United States.

Mario Russell, executive director of the Manhattan-based Center for Migration Studies, said the revocation of temporary protected status for Venezuelans "hurts people, it hurts businesses, and it hurts development."

Russell pointed to an October report from the center showing that out of 9.9 million workers over the age of 16 who lack legal status to be in the country, 7.7 million are in the labor force and contributing to the broader economy.

Amid a state labor crunch, Russell said businesses could have difficulty replacing Venezuelan workers, who he said are taking jobs the current native workforce isn't filling. Ending TPS could hurt certain sectors "that are high growth and depend on this labor," Russell added.

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, New York State has 87 workers available for every 100 open jobs. Separately, a 2024 report from the New York State Department of Labor noted "many businesses are finding it difficult to fill open positions."

A 'less vibrant place'

David Dyssegaard Kallick, director of the Immigration Research Initiative at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., said it’s not just landscapers, construction and child care workers who might suddenly be gone but also employees in less visible public positions who support businesses by, for example, stocking goods. 

"Economically, it’s just shooting us in the foot. There are so many immigrants playing so many kinds of important economic roles that the idea of creating fear and taking away their status and potentially deporting them is just self-destructive for all of us," Dyssegaard Kallick said.

"The idea of what Long Island would look like without immigrants is a smaller economy and population decline, and I think overall, an overall less vibrant place," he added.

According to the American Immigration Council, a nonprofit that advocates for immigrants, across the country in 2021 TPS holders "contributed more than $2.2 billion in taxes, including almost $1 billion to state and local governments." They also held $8 billion in spending power, according to the group.

Minerva Perez, executive director of OLA of Eastern Long Island, a nonprofit that advocates for Latinos, said in an email that ending temporary protected status destabilizes a "healthy community" and that "the provisions to work and pay taxes bring in tremendous gains to U.S."

Andrew Spieler, a professor of finance and business at Hofstra University, said if industries such as construction, landscaping and food service were unable to replace those workers, consumers could pay more for some of those services. Those sectors, he said, may have to pass on the additional costs of new labor.

"If you have less qualified labor, you have to raise your wages," Spieler said.

But he added that an end to TPS protections for Venezuelans could create some savings by having fewer immigrants enrolled in the public school system.

In contrast with some other experts, Jacobs, from the Center for Immigration Studies, said ending TPS protection for Venezuelans could have a positive effect economically, including on New York City's budget.

Last year, New York City spent $3.8 billion to care for newly arrived migrants, according to a January report from the New York City Independent Budget Office.

"It would reduce the fiscal burden," Jacobs said.

Asylum application

Frank, the Queens food deliveryman and cook, said he has a March hearing on an asylum application. 

Asylum allows people to remain in the United States if they show they were persecuted or fear they will be upon return to their country due to their race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion.

Despite missing his family terribly, the Queens man said temporary protection status has allowed him to live in New York without fear for his safety while sending money back home.

He said he fled his homeland in 2022 following threats after he voiced concerns about potential ethical breaches while working for a company involved in Venezuela's political process.

After going into hiding, he journeyed to Mexico and legally entered the United States through Texas in 2023 before flying to New York, where a friend lived. He soon obtained TPS protection.

For now, the Queens resident said he remains cautiously optimistic that things will turn out in his favor.

"I know that I haven’t done anything wrong. I’m not a criminal and I came here with the proper permissions so I hope I can stay," Frank said. "This country has given me so much." 

With Robert Brodsky