COVID up on Long Island, but much less than in previous years
Dr. Susan Donelan, medical director of health care epidemiology at Stony Brook Medicine. Credit: Stony Brook Medicine
COVID-19 numbers are rising on Long Island and statewide, as they have after every Thanksgiving since 2020 — but COVID-related hospitalizations and case positivity rates are much lower than this time last year, state data shows.
Experts say the lack of major changes in the makeup of the variants of the constantly mutating virus have allowed our immune systems to better recognize and fight COVID-19, and an unexpected surge in cases this summer and vaccine booster shots are providing added immunity for some.
"I think it's good news for the holidays," said Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of public health and epidemiology for Northwell Health.
The number of hospitalizations has been between about two to four times lower every day this autumn compared with last fall, state statistics show.
But experts warn that older adults and those with certain health conditions still are at risk for severe COVID-19, and that despite comparatively low numbers now, there’s little doubt that rates will continue to rise as people gather during the holidays in indoor spaces, giving the virus an easier opportunity to spread.
"You could bet a lot of money that rates are going to be much higher in January than they were in early November," Farber said. "However, if the variants don't change, those increased rates will be very modest compared to what they otherwise would have been, had we had new variants coming in at the same time, in which case I think the rates would be dramatically higher."
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention no longer has complete nationwide hospitalization numbers, but samples from hospitals in 13 states also show significantly lower rates this fall compared with last autumn.
The rate of positive COVID-19 test results on Long Island has been gradually rising since Thanksgiving, from a seven-day average of 3.4 cases per 100,000 people as of Black Friday, Nov. 29, to a seven-day average of 5.8 per 100,000 as of Saturday, state Health Department data updated Wednesday shows. Experts say changes in positivity rates help identify trends, but the number of positive test results is a vast undercount.
The official test data only reflect PCR results reported to health authorities — reporting is not mandatory — and do not include results of rapid tests, which is how the overwhelming majority of people test, said Stephanie Silvera, a professor of public health at Montclair State University in New Jersey. And fewer people than in the past test themselves at all, even if they have symptoms, she said.
"We don’t really have a good sense as to how many people have COVID unless people end up in the hospital," she said.
On Tuesday, there were 103 people with COVID-19 in Long Island hospitals, compared with 312 on Dec. 11, 2023, the closest date last year for which the state has numbers. The first three Decembers of COVID-19 had even higher numbers, with 745 hospitalizations on Dec. 9, 2022.
The limited evolution of the virus "has kept levels of immunity pretty high in the community," Farber said. "How long that will last and whether new variants will pop up that are significantly more different than these, time will tell."
Analyses of sewage that includes human waste show that variants today are "remarkably similar" to what were circulating during the summer, he said.
Many people in recent months either have gotten infected with COVID-19 or received an updated vaccine targeted at variants of the virus currently circulating, "so we're better protected, and if we get infected, then our illness is going to be milder," said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville who specializes in infectious diseases.
The large number of people who had COVID-19 during the summer spike probably helps keep hospitalization rates down now, because even if they contract the virus, their illness is more likely to be less severe, said Dr. Susan Donelan, medical director for infection prevention and control for Stony Brook Medicine.
Hospitalization numbers are lower also because hospitals in the past tested every newly admitted patient, so someone admitted for a reason unrelated to COVID-19 was counted in hospitalization numbers, said Dr. Grace Ting, chief medical officer of Nassau University Medical Center in East Meadow. In March, NUMC began testing new patients only if they have COVID-19 symptoms, she said.
The less severe nature of COVID-19 has led to a steep drop in the death rate, Ting said.
For the week ending Nov. 30, there were two COVID-19-related deaths on Long Island and 16 statewide, compared with seven regionally and 69 statewide the week ending Dec. 2, 2023, state data shows. Those numbers only include deaths in hospitals, nursing homes and adult care facilities. The peak day for COVID-19 deaths was April 11, 2020, when 1,077 people died on Long Island and 5,487 died statewide.
Uptake of the updated COVID-19 vaccine released in August remains low, with only 18.4% of New York adults having reported receiving the vaccine, according to a CDC survey taken the week ending Nov. 30.
"Now would be a great time to take advantage of that," Donelan said of the vaccine, which typically takes about two weeks to reach its peak effect — which would be around Christmas and the first night of Hanukkah. "If you’ve not had COVID for a while and you’ve not had any vaccine for quite some time, the chances are if you get COVID, you might be hit a little harder."
Although a vaccination or natural infection from several months ago still provides some protection against a more serious illness, vaccines from three or four years ago "are not going to do you much good," Schaffner said.
Donelan said there’s no way to know whether lower hospitalizations will be the new normal.
"Because this is something that is constantly changing, I long ago stopped trying to predict what comes next," she said.
COVID-19 numbers are rising on Long Island and statewide, as they have after every Thanksgiving since 2020 — but COVID-related hospitalizations and case positivity rates are much lower than this time last year, state data shows.
Experts say the lack of major changes in the makeup of the variants of the constantly mutating virus have allowed our immune systems to better recognize and fight COVID-19, and an unexpected surge in cases this summer and vaccine booster shots are providing added immunity for some.
"I think it's good news for the holidays," said Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of public health and epidemiology for Northwell Health.
The number of hospitalizations has been between about two to four times lower every day this autumn compared with last fall, state statistics show.
WHAT NEWSDAY FOUND
- COVID-19 hospitalizations and case positivity rates are rising on Long Island and statewide. That happens every year after Thanksgiving and during the holidays, as people gather indoors, allowing the virus to more easily spread.
- But COVID-19 numbers are much lower than previous falls. Health experts say reasons include a lack of major changes in the makeup of the virus, which means our immune systems can better recognize and fight it.
- COVID-19 rates will continue to rise through January, as they have in previous years, experts predict. How much they increase will depend on whether there are major changes in the virus’ variants.
But experts warn that older adults and those with certain health conditions still are at risk for severe COVID-19, and that despite comparatively low numbers now, there’s little doubt that rates will continue to rise as people gather during the holidays in indoor spaces, giving the virus an easier opportunity to spread.
"You could bet a lot of money that rates are going to be much higher in January than they were in early November," Farber said. "However, if the variants don't change, those increased rates will be very modest compared to what they otherwise would have been, had we had new variants coming in at the same time, in which case I think the rates would be dramatically higher."
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention no longer has complete nationwide hospitalization numbers, but samples from hospitals in 13 states also show significantly lower rates this fall compared with last autumn.
The rate of positive COVID-19 test results on Long Island has been gradually rising since Thanksgiving, from a seven-day average of 3.4 cases per 100,000 people as of Black Friday, Nov. 29, to a seven-day average of 5.8 per 100,000 as of Saturday, state Health Department data updated Wednesday shows. Experts say changes in positivity rates help identify trends, but the number of positive test results is a vast undercount.
The official test data only reflect PCR results reported to health authorities — reporting is not mandatory — and do not include results of rapid tests, which is how the overwhelming majority of people test, said Stephanie Silvera, a professor of public health at Montclair State University in New Jersey. And fewer people than in the past test themselves at all, even if they have symptoms, she said.
"We don’t really have a good sense as to how many people have COVID unless people end up in the hospital," she said.
On Tuesday, there were 103 people with COVID-19 in Long Island hospitals, compared with 312 on Dec. 11, 2023, the closest date last year for which the state has numbers. The first three Decembers of COVID-19 had even higher numbers, with 745 hospitalizations on Dec. 9, 2022.
The limited evolution of the virus "has kept levels of immunity pretty high in the community," Farber said. "How long that will last and whether new variants will pop up that are significantly more different than these, time will tell."
Analyses of sewage that includes human waste show that variants today are "remarkably similar" to what were circulating during the summer, he said.
Many people in recent months either have gotten infected with COVID-19 or received an updated vaccine targeted at variants of the virus currently circulating, "so we're better protected, and if we get infected, then our illness is going to be milder," said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville who specializes in infectious diseases.
The large number of people who had COVID-19 during the summer spike probably helps keep hospitalization rates down now, because even if they contract the virus, their illness is more likely to be less severe, said Dr. Susan Donelan, medical director for infection prevention and control for Stony Brook Medicine.
Hospitalization numbers are lower also because hospitals in the past tested every newly admitted patient, so someone admitted for a reason unrelated to COVID-19 was counted in hospitalization numbers, said Dr. Grace Ting, chief medical officer of Nassau University Medical Center in East Meadow. In March, NUMC began testing new patients only if they have COVID-19 symptoms, she said.
The less severe nature of COVID-19 has led to a steep drop in the death rate, Ting said.
For the week ending Nov. 30, there were two COVID-19-related deaths on Long Island and 16 statewide, compared with seven regionally and 69 statewide the week ending Dec. 2, 2023, state data shows. Those numbers only include deaths in hospitals, nursing homes and adult care facilities. The peak day for COVID-19 deaths was April 11, 2020, when 1,077 people died on Long Island and 5,487 died statewide.
Uptake of the updated COVID-19 vaccine released in August remains low, with only 18.4% of New York adults having reported receiving the vaccine, according to a CDC survey taken the week ending Nov. 30.
"Now would be a great time to take advantage of that," Donelan said of the vaccine, which typically takes about two weeks to reach its peak effect — which would be around Christmas and the first night of Hanukkah. "If you’ve not had COVID for a while and you’ve not had any vaccine for quite some time, the chances are if you get COVID, you might be hit a little harder."
Although a vaccination or natural infection from several months ago still provides some protection against a more serious illness, vaccines from three or four years ago "are not going to do you much good," Schaffner said.
Donelan said there’s no way to know whether lower hospitalizations will be the new normal.
"Because this is something that is constantly changing, I long ago stopped trying to predict what comes next," she said.
David Olson covers health care. He has worked at Newsday since 2015 and previously covered immigration, multicultural issues and religion at The Press-Enterprise in Southern California.
