Trouble is ahead for Ukraine, Europe and the U.S.

At least for now, the worst fears of Ukraine supporters are coming true. After a tense exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, Donald Trump has halted all aid to Ukraine, claiming Zelenskyy isn’t on board with peace negotiations. Even after a conciliatory letter from Zelenskyy affirming his commitment to seeking peace, U.S. aid remains on pause, apparently until a date is set for Russia-Ukraine talks to start. What comes next is unclear, but nearly every scenario points to troubled times ahead — for Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S.

It would be pointless to relitigate the Oval Office spat between Trump, Zelenskyy and Vice President JD Vance. But there are many signs that it was only a pretext (some say, a deliberately staged one) for an interruption in assistance, which includes a freeze in deliveries of equipment already approved. The U.S. also apparently terminated many forms of intelligence-sharing, including signals that allow the Ukrainians to make precision strikes with long-range missiles, before the disastrous White House meeting — in some cases, in late January.

Also disconcerting: The cost of Ukrainian aid to American taxpayers is not the issue Trump and his supporters claim. While Trump has repeatedly cited a figure of $350 billion, the real amount disbursed so far in both military and humanitarian aid appears to be $120 billion over three years (or about $120 a year per American). Intelligence-sharing costs America nothing.

As for Ukraine’s supposed lack of commitment to ending the war, it’s worth noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Trump has depicted as practically a peacenik, has repeatedly signaled — through his own words and those of high-level officials — that he is not interested in a ceasefire, doesn’t want a peace agreement under which Ukraine keeps lands Russia has formally annexed but doesn’t currently control, and doesn’t want European peacekeepers in Ukraine as a guarantee against future Russian incursions. Whether or not Zelenskyy’s tone toward Trump was "disrespectful,” his basic point — that a peace agreement without security guarantees is meaningless because Putin has a long history of breaking agreements — is valid.

So far, there is no evidence the Trump administration is pressuring Putin. The approach to Russia seems to be all carrot and no stick, including talk of sanctions relief. For whatever reason — ideological affinity, a foolhardy strategy to weaken the Russia-China alliance, or simply the view that Ukraine is easier to bully — Trump’s Washington has pivoted toward Moscow.

Other possible ominous developments include an apparent push by the Trump administration to replace Zelenskyy. Holding elections while Russian bombings continue and while large portions of Ukraine remain occupied by the Russians would be extremely difficult; what’s more, there’s a high risk the Kremlin would use such an election to install its own puppet.

What next for Zelenskyy and Kyiv? Many analysts say that if Europe steps up assistance, Ukraine can fight on without U.S. aid. Ukraine’s own military production is much stronger than it was three years ago at the start of the war, and its impressive fleet of drones can replace some U.S.-supplied missiles and intelligence resources. If the peace agreement backed by the U.S. amounts to capitulation, Ukraine will likely reject it.

Meanwhile, Europe, alarmed by evidence that the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally, is talking about arming itself and preparing for a possible war with Russia.

Trump supporters often assail Zelenskyy for supposedly trying to drag us into World War III. For now, it’s Trump’s actions that may be making a world war more likely.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.