We must prepare now for the threat of bird flu

The quiet but steady expansion of H5N1, the avian flu, has raised concerns with public health professionals, health care providers, and emergency managers across the country.

When H5N1 first came to the attention of infectious disease professionals 20 years ago, there was concern it could mutate and be picked up by a human host, creating a pandemic comparable with the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed some 50 million people worldwide.

At that time, government resources were totally inadequate and officials were unprepared. Realizing the urgent need to develop appropriate response protocols, the federal government created a massive think tank of hundreds of public health and emergency management experts at all levels. The federal government designated 21 metropolitan areas across the country and brought together state and local health and emergency managers, charging each group to devise a plan sufficient to meet local needs.

In a relatively short period of time, we collectively developed the concept of a point of distribution — a design where school gymnasiums and other large areas are set up to process and medicate thousands of people daily.

Most recently, we saw this practice used during the COVID-19 pandemic in armories, gyms and huge tents at places such as Stony Brook University and Jones Beach. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Federal Emergency Management Agency developed training that reached down to local first responders to ensure the nation was on the same page when responding to declared states of emergency as we saw in California with wildfires, the lower East Coast with hurricanes, and in New York and New Jersey after Superstorm Sandy.

Tabletop exercises tested newly established response protocols. A comprehensive plan was developed to medicate the entire population within 48 hours. Funding was provided to institute a program to collect data on emergency room admissions, the sale and use of prescriptions, and over-the-counter sales of cold and flu medications. This allowed the CDC to warn local health departments, with a great degree of accuracy, of pending local outbreaks of flu or other contagious respiratory infections.

Yet President Donald Trump recently ordered a freeze on the CDC’s weekly “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,” canceled scientific meetings, and restricted travel by federal scientists. The exchange and discussion of scientific information, disease trends and the emergence of novel diseases is critical to prevent the next pandemic.

Of course, one hoped that the protocols developed would never be needed or used. Unfortunately, when COVID hit in 2020, Trump had downsized much of the government charged with responding and years of research and development of time-tested protocols were lost. Once again, we were unprepared.

Today, millions of poultry nationwide have been put down because of avian flu. Most recently, 100,000 ducks were euthanized at a Long Island farm infected with H5N1. The virus has now been found in cows, cats and raw milk. Years of fears are coming to fruition.

The possibility that a mutation could make H5N1 compatible with a human host is a serious concern. A further complication is the likely confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services — a dedicated anti-vaccine advocate at a time when vaccines could be essential to survival.

We must prepare now. We cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of 2020 and lose another 1.2 million friends and family.

This guest essay reflects the views of James P. Kelly, former bioterrorism coordinator in Nassau County’s Office of Emergency Management and an adjunct professor of political science at St. Joseph’s University in Patchogue.