Has the U.S. become a hostile environment for tourists?

Are foreign tourists still welcome in President Donald Trump’s America? I’m starting to wonder after several cases of international visitors being detained for long periods in questionable circumstances. If this rough treatment continues, it won’t just be travelers who suffer.

While the U.S. has a duty to protect its borders and enforce the law, overseas tourists may become even more inclined to head elsewhere, threatening billions of dollars in domestic spending.

The Trump administration’s tariff threats and hostility toward supposed allies have already made Canadians and Europeans wary about trips to the U.S. (together, these two groups account for almost half overseas visitors).

Worries about U.S. air traffic safety and gun violence were bad enough, but now guests must also factor in the possibility of being locked up by their hosts.

It’s hard to know if the recent unpleasantness involving Western visitors is just an unhappy coincidence — or an extension of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration, heightened border security and enhanced vetting of visa applicants.

While I don’t know the specifics of each case, the public relations fallout has been considerable.

Following the two-week detention of a 25-year-old German, Lucas Sielaff, amid a linguistic mix-up about where he lived and how long he planned to visit his American fiancee in Las Vegas, Germany’s foreign office cautioned travelers last week that a visa or Electronic System For Travel Authorization (ESTA) waiver doesn’t guarantee U.S. entry. Providing false information about the purpose of the visit or even slightly overstaying a visa can lead to detention, it added.

While there have been several incidents involving German citizens — including a green card holder — officials in Berlin emphasized their update didn’t amount to an official U.S. travel warning; but I can forgive travelers who might interpret it that way.

The UK has also revised its advice to make clear that U.S. authorities are "strictly" enforcing entry rules and visitors "may be liable to arrest or detention" if they break them; this followed the 19-day confinement of a 28-year old Welsh backpacker, Becky Burke, in February. The specifics of her case haven’t been disclosed; however, helping host families with household chores in return for accommodation may have prompted the action. Burke’s parents later complained to the BBC that she was transferred in "leg chains, waist chains and handcuffs" like "Hannibal Lecter."

Meanwhile, France and the U.S. have provided starkly differing accounts for why a French scientist was refused entry earlier this month, preventing the unnamed individual from attending a conference near Houston.

The U.S. has denied that opinions about the Trump administration’s research policies expressed by the individual in phone messages were behind the decision, claiming the real reason was related to confidential information stored on an electronic device in violation of a nondisclosure agreement. Nevertheless, the scientific community has been shaken.

Several European countries have also warned transgender individuals may face difficulties entering the U.S. if their passports state their gender as "X" rather than male or female, because the Trump administration doesn’t recognize this designation.

To be sure, the vast majority of the 72 million annual visitors to the U.S. aren’t facing problems at the border; and in 2024 less than 0.01% of arriving international visitors had their electronic devices searched by U.S. customs.

Nor do I think tourists deserve more sympathy than undocumented immigrants facing deportation or the foreign students and academics who’ve been detained for having foreign policy views the Trump administration finds offensive.

But MAGA-types wondering why they should care should consider the potential economic impact if holidaymakers become afraid to fly to the U.S.

In 2023, the most recent year for which there are comprehensive estimates, overseas visitors spent $100 billion on leisure activities in the U.S., plus around $50 billion on education and $23 billion on business trips, according to government Bureau of Economic Analysis data analyzed by the National Travel and Tourism Office.

Lucrative north-Atlantic flights depend more on U.S. travelers heading to Europe rather than the other way around, and this U.S. outbound travel demand remains strong. Nevertheless, airlines, hotel groups and tourist attractions may be in for a shock.

A forecast published last month by research firm Tourism Economics warning of a potential 5% decline in international visits to the U.S. in 2025 could turn out to be quite conservative.

Anti-American sentiment is on the rise, fueled by tariffs, Trump’s cozying up to Russia and his apparent wish to annex Canada and Greenland (from Denmark), not to mention Vice President JD Vance’s disdain for European allies.

Canadians have been canceling U.S. trips in droves — the number of its residents returning home from the U.S. by road fell 23% in February, while 13% fewer returned by air. Europeans are now reportedly having similar misgivings about U.S. travel.

Overall, international tourist arrivals declined 2.4% year-on-year in February, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office whose preliminary data excludes Mexico and Canada.

Don’t forget the U.S. was struggling to attract foreign tourists even before Trump won a second term due in part to the strong dollar. In 2024, U.S. inbound travel was still around 9% below pre-pandemic levels with arrivals from China and Japan particularly slow to recover.

The spotlight on how the U.S. treats foreign visitors will increase next year when it holds the soccer World Cup, together with Mexico and Canada. (Never mind the players; getting the hosts to play nice with each other could be quite the challenge.)

The US’s authoritarian lurch probably won’t prevent die-hard sports fans from enjoying the tournament, but other visitors are likely to be more principled.

Trump’s unpredictability and assault on the rule of law could yet have a silver lining for international visitors: A weaker dollar would make U.S. trips more affordable. But by then the U.S. will have destroyed so much international goodwill that few will want to come.

My advice to anyone who must travel to the U.S. is to familiarize yourself with your rights, be doubly sure your paperwork is in order, consider what information you have stored on mobile devices and be very precise about your travel intentions when quizzed by border officials. And don’t even think about overstaying your welcome.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Chris Bryant is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies in Europe. Previously, he was a reporter for the Financial Times.