A sandwich of races squeezes Anker-Palumbo contest

Daily Point

A nexus of nervous contests out east

Suffolk County politics features red as its dominant color these days. But this Election Day, the biggest concern — and likely suspense — for the Republican organization has to do with the 1st Senate District where Anthony Palumbo, the GOP incumbent, is facing a challenge from Democrat Sarah Anker, a former county legislator.

Palumbo won the seat in 2020 after seven years in the Assembly, succeeding longtime Sen. Kenneth LaValle. Not only is Palumbo targeted with funding from the chamber’s majority, the district’s locale sandwiched between two other partisan battlegrounds on the ballot, is causing some suspense.

Anker is getting support and funding from the upper chamber’s Democratic leadership, directed by Deputy Majority Leader Michael Gianaris, whose side clashed sharply in court with Palumbo over changing the rules for Court of Appeals selections. Palumbo’s lawsuit forced Democrats to take a floor vote on the controversially doomed nomination of Hector LaSalle as chief judge.

For one thing, the district includes part of the Town of Brookhaven, as well as the towns of Riverhead, Southold, East Hampton, Southampton and Shelter Island. That puts Palumbo in the midst of a district where challenger John Avlon is working to unseat Republican first-term Rep. Nick LaLota, possibly pulling in an extra helping of Suffolk County Democratic voters.

Another potential Democratic magnet is the battle to succeed retiring Assemb. Fred Thiele, who has caucused with Democrats and became an early endorser of Avlon. In that race, for the 1st AD, Republican Stephen Kiely is facing off against Democrat Tommy John Schiavoni.

Thiele told The Point of the Senate race: "I think it's close. I thought it was close going in. I've heard from both sides on this, each has their polls which are at odds with each other."

"It's much more of a purple district than Ken LaValle ran in for most of his career. Senate Democrats put lots of resources in it and it's a presidential year. Is there going to be a higher turnout of women? Add all those things together and you might get an upset. If it's a normal breakdown of Democrats and Republicans, and a normal gender breakdown, I think Palumbo wins by a couple points."

In SD1, as of 3 p.m., 40,559 Democrats had reportedly voted, as did 43,658 Republicans and 35,900 "blanks and others," according to election officials, once again posing the question about how the unaffiliated vote will break.

In AD1, it was 18,079 Democrats, 14,310 Republicans and 13,817 "blanks and others."

How these three "first districts" for House, Assembly and State Senate are feeding off each other along ballot lines Tuesday can only be calculated once the vote totals come in. That should keep some partisans on the edge of their seats past the 9 p.m. closing time at the polls.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com, Michael Dobie michael.dobie@newsday.com

Data Point

Women voters continue to outpace men on Election Day

The gender gap that emerged nationally as well in Long Island’s early voting data continued on Election Day, traditionally a time when more men turn out. According to the University of Florida vote tracker, women nationally were turning out in greater numbers than men and often at a higher percentage of their voter registration. Currently, in states that report votes by gender, 54% of voters were women and 43.8% men.

That trend line may well be the story of the 2024 vote.

As of midday in Nassau, 53.6% of all voters in the county were women, while in Suffolk it was 53.3% at 6 p.m. Among Democrat voters, 61% of votes were cast by women in Nassau, and 61.2% in Suffolk. Among Republicans, 48.3% of votes were cast by women in Nassau and 48.2% in Suffolk.

Voting by gender for blanks was split in half in Nassau, and was 51.8% female in Suffolk.

— Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com, Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

Talking Point

When D.C. power brokers whisk through town

Long Island congressional candidates have had their hope-to-be House caucus leaders pass through in the campaign’s waning days to declare and galvanize their support.

GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson, whose current majority rests on a margin of only a few votes in the 435-member House, makes clear he’s been paying attention to reelecting first-term Reps. Anthony D’Esposito in Nassau County and Nick LaLota in Suffolk.

Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn, seeking to claw back seats his party lost in the regional red wave of 2022, also swept through. But one may ask what the candidates and their parties hope to gain by welcoming partisan power brokers, in an election where competitors want to show bipartisanship and independence.

Is the demonstration of support for the partisans, or the voters? "It’s a little of each," said a longtime consultant versed in the ways of the Nassau County Republican machine. "The speaker controls purse springs" — in both the federal budget and campaign coffers, the consultant said.

And, the leader can push the troops to get out the vote. "Everybody in America, and thus everybody in the world, is watching what happens on Long Island," Johnson told a room full of the Republican faithful last week in Franklin Square. Johnson is No. 2 in the line of presidential succession.

Jeffries, trying to become speaker, told supporters of D’Esposito’s challenger, Laura Gillen, on Oct. 17 in Hempstead Village: "It's incredibly important in terms of the direction of this country that Democrats take back control of the House of Representatives."

This past Saturday, Jeffries did the same for LaLota’s Democratic challenger, John Avlon, who told The Point: "The fact that Hakeem Jeffries could have been anywhere in the U.S.A. on the Saturday night before the election, but chose to be in New York 1, is a huge shot in the arm ..." After the votes come in, the millions of dollars spent by both sides on various contested races at the command of the party House committees and PACs will be tallied. Both Johnson and Jeffries "are getting scorecards kept on them," said a longtime New York State Democratic operative.

That is, the leaders’ individual careers depend on the whole team’s performance. The head coaches in both chambers of Congress are from Brooklyn — Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, whose conference is threatened with falling back into the minority. For Long Island and the rest of New York State, the results will have a big impact — both globally and locally. This is as high-stakes as a national race gets.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

Pencil Point

America kicks in

For more cartoons, visit www.newsday.com/0913nationalcartoons

Final Point

'Blanks' could weigh heavily in Cardinale-O'Pharrow race in AD11

Among the key races worth watching Tuesday is an open seat in the Island’s 11th Assembly District, which is mostly located in Suffolk County, but has a sliver in Nassau. It’s a window to how the top of the ticket is driving down ballot outcomes.

After 10 years in office, Assemb. Kimberly Jean-Pierre decided earlier this year not to run again. Into the race jumped two former New York Police Department officers: Republican Joseph Cardinale and Democrat Kwani O’Pharrow.

It’s a district where Democrats have an edge when it comes to registration, but where those who are registered as "blanks" could play a significant role. It’s a district where the demographics have changed considerably since Jean-Pierre won her first race, as now more than half the residents are either Black or Hispanic. And it’s a district where Republicans had hoped to pick up a seat.

As of Tuesday afternoon, turnout was high – as it was during early voting. All told, as of 3 p.m. Tuesday, 37,676 residents had voted in the Suffolk County portion of the district: 16,081 Democrats, 11,062 Republicans and 9,734 blanks. In Nassau, there were an additional 2,753 voters: 1,315 Democrats, 804 Republicans and 488 blanks.

But while both candidates tried to push local issues, it’s the national landscape on which voters focused. Many said they just voted down the party line; others said they didn’t know anything about the two propositions on their ballots – one for Suffolk County water quality, one a statewide Equal Rights Amendment – before they walked into the voting booth.

All politics may be local – but this year, even the most local races had a national filter. 

Read my column on the 11th Assembly District race.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

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