MLB free agency: Predicting where Juan Soto, other top stars will land

As the baseball world eagerly awaits Juan Soto’s decision, which reportedly is down to the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Dodgers, it’s not as if he’s the only difference-maker in this winter’s free-agent class. Problem is, Soto’s signing is basically the key to unlocking the rest of the market, and until that monster deal is resolved — possibly at some point this weekend — everyone else is pretty much in a holding pattern to see where those dollars are going.

With the expectation that Soto is getting a deal somewhere north of $600 million — and shooting for a record (current value) AAV that could topple Shohei Ohtani’s heavily deferred, no-interest, 10-year, $700 million package from last winter — the teams that don’t land Soto will feel as if they suddenly have boatloads of cash to spend. That should open the floodgates for a free-agent frenzy at MLB’s winter meetings, which kick off Sunday night in Dallas.

To date, only one of this offseason’s elite names is off the board, as two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell signed a five-year, $182 million deal with (who else?) the Dodgers. At Tuesday’s jersey-donning intro, Snell’s agent, Scott Boras — who also represents Soto — said the free-agent slugger had begun eliminating teams from his list but that a decision wasn’t “imminent in the near future.”

“Juan is a very methodical thinker,” Boras told reporters.

Maybe so, but Boras probably wouldn’t mind getting the party started sooner rather than later, as he has four more free agents besides Soto in our top 12 list below. We’ve also predicted their next destinations, many hinging on Soto’s choice, of course.

1. Juan Soto

Heading into this offseason, the simple math had Soto going to the Mets. Player who wants the most money signs with the owner who has the most money. But with the remaining handful of teams all reportedly now offering $600 million or more, the momentum swings back to Hal Steinbrenner.

Prediction: Yankees.

2. Corbin Burnes

As badly as the Mets need to rebuild their rotation, president of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t seem eager for a reunion with the former Brewers ace, and the recent signing of Frankie Montas could suggest another mid-tier retooling in Flushing. Skip to the next big-market team desperate for a starter:

Prediction: Red Sox.

3. Alex Bregman

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said he has no problem signing any of the trash can-banging Astros this winter despite his long-simmering hatred for those 2017 champs, but it’s not as if he’s rushing to bring any to the Bronx, either. For Bregman, there’s comfort in returning to Houston, and it’s the easiest call for both sides.

Prediction: Astros.

4. Willy Adames

The free-agent market plays out like a game of dominoes, and if we have Soto going back to the Bronx, that likely means the Yankees — with most of their winter budget spent — will have to pass on Adames, who would’ve been the perfect fit at third. A few other dominoes tumbling down below means no space in Flushing either, so figure on Adames maybe taking a shortstop gig out west.

Prediction: Giants.

5. Max Fried

When this offseason began, who didn’t love the scenario of Fried going to the Mets and tormenting his former team as the central antagonist in this white-hot NL East rivalry? If Stearns loses out on Soto, he could always pivot to Fried with the extra cash in his pocket, but it’s more likely the Atlanta ace will flip leagues as Baltimore will have to replace Corbin Burnes.

Prediction: Orioles.

6. Pete Alonso

After a subpar walk year by his lofty power standards, Alonso seemingly was fading out of Flushing before restoring his hero status with a memorable October. That probably was enough to convince owner Steve Cohen to keep the homegrown Polar Bear at Citi Field for a while longer, if not the rest of his career.

Prediction: Mets.

7. Anthony Santander 

He's the perfect slugging Plan B for teams that lose out on Soto, and if the Blue Jays were willing to drop $600 million in that bidding war, then why not get some instant offense at a more bargain rate with the switch-hitting Santander? He’s already plenty familiar with the AL East, too.

Prediction: Blue Jays.

8. Roki Sasaki

The next great Japanese pitching phenom, coming to the majors only a year after Yoshinobu Yamamoto, won’t pick a team until after Jan. 15 in order to take advantage of the new international signing period. Because he’s subject to those rules, Sasaki will be available at a hugely discounted price, but small-market teams shouldn’t get their hopes up. The rich get richer.

Prediction: Dodgers.

9. Teoscar Hernandez

He’ll certainly do better than the one-year, $23 million deal that landed him with the Dodgers last season, and Hernandez was too valuable for the world champs to let him go elsewhere this winter. Plus, who would  want to leave Chavez Ravine these days?

Prediction: Dodgers.

10. Christian Walker

Older than Alonso, with less raw power, Walker doesn’t bring the boom of that other big-ticket first baseman available this winter. But Walker still ranked fourth in OPS (.803) at the position last season, and he’s also a two-time Gold Glove winner, something a certain fundamentally challenged team in the Bronx could use.

Prediction: Yankees.

11. Jack Flaherty

The Dodgers’ trade deadline ace ran out of steam in the postseason, imploding against the Mets and Yankees in big spots, but Flaherty should be fine in this pitching-hungry market. Why not run it back where he performed best a year ago?

Prediction: Tigers.

12. Sean Manaea

A year ago, no one would’ve placed the Mets’ de facto ace this high on any free-agent list. But Manaea pitched his way into a big payday this offseason, partly due to mimicking the sidearm delivery of Chris Sale, the eventual NL  Cy Young Award winner. A great fit in Flushing, but worth another try at a much higher price? Cohen can afford it.

Prediction: Mets.

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.