NCAA Tournament: Breaking down the bracket, from top seeds to sleepers to upset alerts and more

Selection Sunday has come and gone, which means the 2024 NCAA Tournament field is set. Here’s a breakdown to help you fill out your bracket.

The 1 Seeds

Connecticut

The Huskies (31-3) enter the tournament poised to become the first program to win consecutive national championships since Florida in 2007. Despite losing three starters to the pros, UConn hit the ground running in 2023-24 and, for the most part, throttled their competition all season.

The Huskies have everything you want when picking a champion: experienced and complementary guards in Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer; a lights-out wing in Alex Karaban; and projected first-round NBA draft picks in big man Donovan Clingan and wing Stephon Castle. That all adds up to a team that ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings and 11th in defense — every champion since UConn’s 2011 winner has ranked in the top 10 in at least one of offense and defense.

Purdue

For the second straight season, the Boilermakers (29-4) earned a No. 1 seed to the Big Dance. Things didn't go so well last year — Purdue became just the second No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed, falling to Fairleigh Dickinson. . But Matt Painter’s squad has plenty of reasons to enter this tournament feeling optimistic. 

This team is better than last year’s version. This group ranks third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings with 125.1 points per 100 possessions, up from 117.7 points per 100 last year, and second in three-point percentage whereas last year’s team ranked 276th.

Zach Edey, who will likely collect his second straight Naismith College Player of the Year award, is still the star, but the supporting cast is more reliable thanks to Braden Smith’s emergence as one of the nation’s most dependable point guards and Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones’ contributions on both sides of the ball.

The Boilermakers will try to follow 2019 Virginia’s blueprint, going from losing to a No. 16 seed to cutting down the nets.

Houston

As if Houston (30-4) still needed to prove its legitimacy as an elite college basketball program, the Cougars joined the nation’s top-rated conference — the Big 12 — and proceeded to win the regular-season title by two full games and earn their second straight No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

As usual, Kelvin Sampson’s group plays at one of the country’s slowest paces and grinds down its opponents with a suffocating defense and patient offense that collects its misses better than all but 12 teams, per KenPom. They rank in the top 5 in just about every defensive category: adjusted efficiency (No. 2), effective field-goal percentage (No. 2), block percentage (No. 2), steal percentage (No. 2) and turnover percentage (No. 3).

North Carolina 

The last three seasons have been quite the roller-coaster for the Tar Heels (27-7), who reached the 2022 championship but missed the 2023 tournament after starting the season ranked No. 1. Now, they’re back in the Big Dance as a No. 1 seed.

Even with a top-10 defense and All-American shoo-in RJ Davis, the Tar Heels appear to be the most vulnerable No. 1 seed. They have floundered all year on neutral floors, losing to UConn, Kentucky and — worst of all — Villanova in non-conference play before struggling to vanquish Pittsburgh in the ACC semifinals and ultimately losing to N.C. State in the championship. Pittsburgh missed the NCAA Tournament, and N.C. State would have if not for beating the Tar Heels.

The Sleepers

Creighton

Coming off last year’s Elite Eight run, the No. 3 seed Blue Jays (23-9) boast one of the nation’s best offenses and a more than capable defense, anchored by 7-1 Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner. He, long-range marksman Baylor Scheierman and all-around guard Trey Alexander lead this experienced group, whose resume includes wins over No. 1 seed UConn and No. 2 seed Marquette.

Auburn

From an analytics perspective, Auburn (27-7) provides tremendous value if you’re looking for a No. 4 seed to reach the Final Four. The Tigers did it in 2019 as a No. 5 seed, and this group rates higher at No. 4 in KenPom’s efficiency margin. For what it’s worth, UConn ranked No. 4 in KenPom’s ratings entering the 2023 tournament, which they won as a No. 4 seed.

First Round Upset Watch

No. 11 New Mexico over No. 6 Clemson

By the time this game tips, Richard Pitino’s Lobos (26-9) could be the betting favorite. The Mountain West tournament champions play fast, defend and take care of the ball. Senior guards Jaelen House (Eddie House) and Jamal Mashburn Jr. have NBA heritage, and 6-10 senior Nelly Junior Joseph has the size to battle All-ACC first teamer PJ Hall.

No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin

Wisconsin (22-13) seemed to hit its stride in the Big Ten tourney. However, the Badgers had lost eight of 11 to close the regular season. James Madison (31-3), on the other hand, holds the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 games. The Dukes, who are sound on both sides of the ball, began their season by winning at then-No. 4 Michigan State, Wisconsin’s Big Ten rival.

No. 13 Samford over No. 4 Kansas

The Jayhawks’ depth was an issue all season, and now they’re dealing with injuries to Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., who both missed the Big 12 tourney with hopes of being ready for the Big Dance. Samford (29-5) plays at the nation’s 14th fastest pace, per KenPom, and ranks seventh in effective field-goal percentage (56.9). Seven Bulldogs shoot better than 38% from long range. An offense like that could cause problems for a banged-up team like the Jayhawks, who have lost four of their last five.

No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Gonzaga

For the first time since 2016, Gonzaga (25-7) received a seed worse than No. 4. It drew a challenging first-round matchup as a consequence: a 30-3 team, led by former VCU and LSU coach Will Wade. The Cowboys are smaller than the Bulldogs, but they protect the ball while forcing turnovers at a rate better than all but five schools, per KenPom. They can also shoot the three (39.4%) while not relying too heavily on that area, and are led by upperclassmen.

Top Storylines

Small Bubble

This year’s conference tournaments produced more bid stealers than usual, which explains why both First Four at-large matchups are between 10 seeds rather than the more common 11 vs. 11 games we tend to see annually. Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Indiana State and Pittsburgh were announced as the first four to miss the cut.

Big Least

Partially because of the bid stealers, the Big East received three bids — its fewest since notching the same total in 1993. No. 1 UConn, No. 2 Marquette and No. 3 Creighton are all capable of reaching the Final Four, but Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence and Villanova all missed the cut.

Mountain Best?

A year after San Diego State represented the conference in the national championship, the Mountain West produced six tournament teams — its most ever. However, No. 5 seed San Diego State was the only one to earn a seed better than eight, and Boise State and Colorado State each will appear in the First Four. Will the league overachieve and send multiple teams to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2011?

There Can Only Be One

With Miami (Fla.) missing the tournament and No. 1 seed UConn, No. 5 seed San Diego State and No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic all placed in the East Regional, this year’s Final Four can include no more than one repeat entrant.

Players to Watch

Zach Edey, Purdue

A near-lock to win back-to-back Naismith College Player of the Year awards, Edey carried Purdue to a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season. The 7-foot-4 forward is averaging 24.3 points and 11.8 rebounds per game while shooting 61.9 percent from the field.

RJ Davis, UNC

If not for Edey and Purdue’s stellar season, RJ Davis would have a chance to collect the Naismith College Player of the Year award. Davis has been one of the sport’s best scorers and closers, delivering UNC several victories with his clutch shooting. One of two holdovers from UNC’s 2022 Final Four team, the 6-foot senior from White Plains is averaging 21.1 points and 3.5 assists per game. He is shooting 41.1 percent from long-range.

Dalton Knecht, Tennessee

As has been the case each of the last four seasons, Tennessee’s defense remains its strength. However, it’s been a long time since the Volunteers had a bona fide offensive weapon like Knecht, who makes this team a legitimate threat to reach the Final Four. The 6-6 wing, in his first year with Tennessee after transferring from Northern Colorado, is averaging 21.4 points per game while shooting 40.5% from long range.

Mark Sears, Alabama

Sears is the engine behind the nation’s most prolific offense, which averages 90.8 points per game. The 6-1 senior accounts for a team-high 21.1 of those points while shooting 50.4% from the field and 43.1% from deep.

Final Four Picks

UConn over Arizona

Houston over Creighton

National championship game:

UConn over Houston