Goalie Igor Shesterkin is the reason Rangers are up 3-0 vs. Hurricanes in second-round series
Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers guards his net during the third period against the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 3 on Thursday. Credit: Getty Images/Bruce Bennett
RALEIGH, N.C.
All the analytics people and all the oddsmakers’ computers ran the numbers and came to the conclusion that the Carolina Hurricanes, with their take-as-many-shots-as-you-can approach, were a better bet to win the Stanley Cup than the Rangers.
But the computers and the analytics folks didn’t properly account for Igor Shesterkin.
Shesterkin has proved in this second-round playoff series, which the Rangers lead 3-0, that a team can take all the shots in the world, but if the other team’s goalie is good enough, shot totals don’t matter.
And Shesterkin definitely has been good enough.
The Hurricanes took 57 shots in Game 2 and 47 in Game 3. They lost both, in double overtime and overtime, as Shesterkin saved 99 of 104 shots (a .952 save percentage).
The Hurricanes have outshot the Rangers in every game of the series, by an aggregate of 129-87, but Shesterkin has allowed only eight goals in 209 minutes and seven seconds (a 2.30 goals-against average).
Just because a team launches a lot of shots toward the goal doesn’t mean they’re all difficult. Many of the shots Carolina took in its 3-2 Game 3 loss were from wide angles or from far out, with no traffic in front of Shesterkin to obscure his vision. A lot of his 45 saves were routine, shots he simply swallowed up into his stomach, leaving no rebound.
But Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour didn’t want to hear that on Friday.
“I think he’s made a lot of quality saves too,’’ Brind’Amour said after the Hurricanes’ practice at PNC Arena. “I mean, I looked at [the video] today and there’s a couple that are world-class. There’s a couple that [if they] go the other way, that’s the difference, and you’re not talking about ‘oh, you’ve got to get better shots.’ He’s been the difference, and there’s no way around it. And you’ve got to give him credit.’’
Brind’Amour has to have an appreciation for what Shesterkin has done for the Rangers, and perhaps envy toward his old coach, Peter Laviolette, who isn’t wrestling with the goalie problem Brind’Amour is.
Brind’Amour tried to spark his team for Game 3 by changing goaltenders, turning to Pyotr Kochetkov after riding Frederik Andersen for the Hurricanes’ first seven playoff games.
While Kochetkov played well, the move ultimately didn’t pay dividends for Carolina, and now Brind’Amour has to decide whether, facing elimination in Game 4 on Saturday, he should stick with Kochetkov, who made 22 saves Thursday, or go back to Andersen.
One of the things that makes the NHL playoffs so unpredictable is the fact that a hot goalie can be the reason an underdog team upsets a favored team in a best-of-seven series. Plenty of nondescript keepers have gotten hot for two weeks and led their teams to shocking playoff upsets over the years.
Usually, midnight strikes for those Cinderella teams in the next round, when those hot keepers come back to earth and the more talented team wins.
But Shesterkin is no hot goalie who’ll be coming back to earth in the next round. He’s a great goalie capable of playing like this for a long time.
And that’s something that the analytics people and oddsmakers’ computers didn’t give enough weight to when they ran the numbers and made their predictions.
Shesterkin finished the season with a 36-17-2 record, a 2.58 goals-against average, a .913 save percentage and four shutouts. Decent numbers, but hardly spectacular.
But after the All-Star break, he was 17-5-2 in his final 24 starts, with a 2.20 GAA and .929 save percentage. He is 7-0 with a 2.01 GAA and a .935 save percentage in the playoffs.
Those numbers actually might be sustainable, especially if the Rangers keep playing short series and Shesterkin can get all the rest he needs.
“It’s been my experience that to go a long way . . . your goaltender really, truly might have to be your best player,’’ Laviolette said as the Rangers held an extras-only practice at the arena. “And you know, [Shesterkin] started that way.
“You know that we’ll face different teams and they’ll all present different challenges along the way. But at the end of the day, it comes down to certain things, and that’s one of them.
“Again, he just seems like he’s really got his focus right now, really has his game on point.’’
Colin Stephenson covers the Rangers for Newsday. He has spent more than two decades covering the NHL and just about every sports team in the New York metropolitan area.