Gerrit Cole elbow news should put the Yankees into full-blown panic
Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole is taken out in the fourth inning of a spring training game against the Toronto Blue Jays at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Fla., on. Feb. 28. Credit: Newsday/Thomas A. Ferrara
WEST PALM BEACH
Perhaps the most worrisome thing about Gerrit Cole’s newest elbow scare, and he did use the word “concerned” repeatedly over the course of Saturday’s five-minute interview, was the nature of the injury this time around.
It was a year ago, almost to the day, that Cole’s complaints of elbow discomfort required an MRI followed by a huddling of medical experts who determined the reigning Cy Young Award winner did not need a surgical solution. Back then, the symptoms sounded less ominous: excessive fatigue, trouble getting loose, sluggish recovery.
What Cole described Saturday, however, was far more ominous. After the Twins knocked him around for 2 2/3 innings during Thursday’s start, only his second of spring training, Cole’s elbow hurt so badly after he got home that it was “tough to sleep.”
By the next morning, Cole said, “It was alarming . . . something wasn’t right.”
Cole didn’t disclose what Friday’s MRI revealed, and neither did the Yankees before Saturday night’s game against the Astros at Cacti Park. But the ace’s demeanor was unable to disguise his fears, primarily because this issue popped up so unexpectedly, like a lightning bolt from a cloudless sky.
And when it comes to a pitcher’s elbow, all roads eventually lead to one sobering destination. Some sooner, some later. Cole, at age 34, has never needed Tommy John surgery despite a 12-year career as one of the game’s hardest throwers. Before his shutdown last March, Cole had made no fewer than 30 starts over his previous six full seasons and pitched more than 200 innings five times, including an American League-best 209 innings in 2023.
In other words, this isn’t Cole’s first rodeo. He knows his body, knows his mechanics, and when something is out of whack, chances are he can gauge the severity when a dashboard light is flashing.
Armed with the initial test results and diagnosis, Cole didn’t dismiss questions about potential surgery. Just swallowed hard.
“I’m concerned” was his reply.
Which means the Yankees’ should be in a full-blown panic. Just three days earlier, general manager Brian Cashman announced that Luis Gil was expected to be out for three months -- minimum -- with a high-grade lat muscle strain. But losing the Rookie of the Year didn’t feel like such a huge deal after Cashman had doubled-down on their rotation during the winter by giving an eight-year, $218 million contract to Max Fried.
On paper, the Yankees figured to overcome Gil’s absence, just as they did with Cole on the shelf for roughly 11 weeks last season, when they had the best rotation in the majors during that early stretch. But once you subtract both Gil and Cole -- especially with the $324 million ace potentially gone for the rest of this season and most of the next -- they’re slipping toward insurmountable territory.
Fun fact: Gil took over as ace when Cole went down a year ago, with a 9-1 record and 2.03 ERA through his first 14 starts. Now the Yankees likely won’t have either one for a sizable chunk of the season, and their margin of error -- from a rotation standpoint -- has been reduced to zero.
Remember when the Yankees’ biggest camp controversy was Marcus Stroman being the odd man out of the rotation? At this rate, with pitchers dropping at a dizzying pace, Stroman could wind up being the Opening Day starter. Currently, he looks secure in the No. 4 spot, presumably followed by prospect Will Warren and maybe 15-year veteran Carlos Carrasco. But with nearly three weeks left in spring training, we don’t feel safe penciling in anybody at this point.
Forget the Yankees’ AL title defense. They’re in survival mode, just trying to keep together some semblance of their $306 million roster for the start of the regular season. In addition to Cole and Gil, the Yankees won’t have Giancarlo Stanton (double-elbow tendinitis) for a long while and third base remains a revolving door for now with the perpetually injured DJ LeMahieu (calf) hurting again.
“You know that sometimes it’s a war of attrition, especially with pitching,” manager Aaron Boone said before Saturday night’s game. “You know you’re going to get nicked here and there. Obviously talking about Luis and Gerrit, that’s two big, big, big parts of our team. There’s no sugarcoating it.”
If Cole’s elbow does in fact require Tommy John surgery, that could set up a bitter ending for his $324 million Yankees tenure. After a November stare-down that failed to result in the 10th-year option everyone anticipated, Cole has only four seasons left to help win at least one World Series title (after Hal Steinbrenner predicted multiple rings on the day of his Bronx introduction). A UCL repair could knock him down to three.
The Yankees aren’t thinking longer-term here in mid-March. They didn’t waste any time plotting a post-Juan Soto course for 2025 with Cashman’s quick-strike acquisitions of Fried, Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams and Paul Goldschmidt. But for a team that again reinvested most of their money in pitching, the thought of a post-Cole rotation is even harder to comprehend.
Cole had a difficult time coming to grips with his own situation Saturday morning. Since last March’s elbow inflammation, which was solved by meds and extended rehab, Cole was encouraged that the regimen could keep him safe from future problems -- but never immune.
“You take the risks every year,” he said.
And sometimes, as the Yankees are discovering far too often, the luck runs out.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
