Yankees' trade for Juan Soto led to an arms race in 2025
Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco delivers in the first inning of a spring training game against the Minnesota Twins in Fort Myers, Fla., on Tuesday. Credit: AP/Gerald Herbert
FORT MYERS, Fla. — The chain reaction that led to Carlos Carrasco starting Tuesday against the Twins at the Lee Health Sports Complex actually kicked off more than a year ago, when the Yankees traded for Juan Soto.
What does Soto, the newly minted $765 million slugger, have to do with Carrasco signing a minor-league deal (value upward of $2.5M with performance bonuses) as rotation insurance for Aaron Boone & Co.? You can trace the two back to the December 2023 swap that sent three of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects to the Padres, along with Michael King, a young starter who already had proved his front-line potential.
That put a serious dent in the Yankees’ organizational depth, but it was a sacrifice that paid off, at least in the short term, as Soto was a driving force behind their first trip to the World Series since 2009. Soto ultimately bolted the Bronx for that record contract with the Mets, but the pitching fallout left in his wake forced the Yankees to exercise some contingency plans.
Within hours of Soto’s departure, GM Brian Cashman gave Max Fried an eight-year, $218 million deal, the richest contact ever for a lefthanded starter. Cashman had been on Blake Snell, too, but couldn’t be a serious bidder until he got a verdict on Soto (Snell quickly signed a five-year, $182M contract with the Dodgers in the meantime).
The Yankees immediately had their Soto pivot ready, but outside of L.A., throwing more cash at a pricey rotation was an unusual strategy these days. In Gerrit Cole ($324M) and Carlos Rodon ($162M), they already had two starters among the top 10 highest-paid pitchers — based on annual salaries — with Fried becoming the third on that list. The Dodgers lead the majors with four — Shohei Ohtani ($70M), Snell ($36.4M), Tyler Glasnow ($27.3M) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($27.1M).
Given the fragile nature of pitching, devoting so much cash to so few arms can cripple a season with a bad break or two. That explains why most clubs prioritize depth and flexibility when it comes to the rotation. It creates a wider safety net, usually at a significantly lower cost. But if you’ve got the money, it’s a very tempting marketplace.
Of the top four payrolls in 2025, the Dodgers have spent the most on their rotation, at $128 million for their projected five starters. Next is the Yankees at $95 million, followed by the Phillies at $87 million. The Mets rank second in total payroll, but among this group invest the lowest percentage in the rotation at $71 million.
In the Yankees’ case, they had an extra $700 million in their pockets after being spurned by Soto, and Fried was the instant beneficiary. If they couldn’t run it back with Soto and Aaron Judge, the most dangerous offensive duo of their generation, then why not give Cole another co-ace for nearly a quarter of the price?
Just don’t call Fried a Plan B. I used that term to describe the Yankees’ post-Soto approach, and Cole wasn’t having it.
“What if we had two Plan As?” Cole said. “I just don’t want to say he’s a Plan B. That’s my guy.”
OK, then how about a pivot from Soto? Does that sound better?
“A decisive pivot, right?” Cole replied. “It was a concerted effort to get this player here as quick as possible. It’s got to feel good. The old adage, you can never have enough pitching. Still seems to work for me.”
Fair enough. The Yankees didn’t necessarily need Fried. The priority figured to be replacing Soto’s run-producing impact, but that wasn’t going to be possible anyway, not to the level achieved by his pairing with Judge, who wound up with another MVP after hitting behind him. Still, Fried was there for the taking, and the Yankees needed to move past the Soto hangover as rapidly as possible.
“Every offseason creates a different opportunity,” manager Aaron Boone said. “Sometimes you’re able to hammer a strength. Last year we identified going in on Juan knowing it was going to hurt with the trade package we were giving up, but felt like he could be that piece that could take us to another level. I think he certainly did that. And then we went all-in to bring him back this year. But once that went away, you kind of pivot to what’s out there, what’s in your parameters, in your budget.”
As it stands now, the Yankees currently have six starters for five spots, with Marcus Stroman (and his $18M salary) the odd man out. Further complicating matters is Stroman’s $18 million option for 2026, which automatically vests if he pitches 140 innings this season.
The Yankees used only eight starters last season after deploying a dozen the previous year, so it’s difficult to predict how many they’ll need for their AL title defense this time around. The pivot to Fried was supposed to be their best post-Soto chance to improve those odds.
“It’s good that we speak the same language in a lot of regards,” Cole said. “It brings good continuity to the group.”
A group the Yankees are banking on to get them back to the World Series.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.