NFL needs a draft lottery system that does not penalize winning
Giants quarterback Drew Lock reacts after a touchdown pass during a game against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at MetLife Stadium. Credit: AP/Adam Hunger
There’s only one thing worse than losing in the NFL.
It’s losing so much that even winning takes on the tenor of defeat.
That’s what happened to the Giants on Sunday. They played one of their best games in years, highlighted by key performances by several of their up-and-coming stars, scored more points than they have in about a decade . . . and still created consternation in a fan base that found itself in the perplexing position of rooting against the team for which they usually root.
While the players and coaches were giddy about snapping a 10-game losing streak, all everyone else focused on was how it negatively impacted the team’s draft position in April.
And while neither of those perspectives is wrong, they shouldn’t be put in such glaring conflict toward the end of each season while the also-rans finish up their schedules.
It’s not cool. It goes against the things the NFL relies on to maintain that all-important “integrity” it always mentions. And most of all, it’s easily fixable.
The league needs to stop rewarding incompetence by having its draft order determined solely by who had the worst record and implement a lottery system that does not penalize teams for doing what they are supposed to be trying to do all the time: Winning.
It’s the tactic other sports have employed to guard against outright tanking. Football, especially now that it has found itself in the warm embrace of gambling, needs a similar protection.
Right now, the NFL relies solely on the pride and character of the teams jostling for those bottom spots in the standings, and so far that has worked.
Not only did the Giants win on Sunday to “fall” from the first overall pick to fourth with a week to play, but the Raiders, once with a firm grip on that top pick themselves, have won two in a row and currently are slotted to pick eighth.
At some point, though, the temptation to lose will be too much for a franchise to avoid. We may be getting close to that. The Patriots will have the top pick in the 2025 draft unless they win on Sunday, and already there is talk of sitting rookie quarterback Drake Maye. They say it’s for his protection. What else might it be protecting?
There is a misconception that the NFL is too rigid to consider such a plan, too tied to its past and the way things have always been done. But that hasn’t stopped them from changing the game in other essential ways in recent years, from the roughing penalties we now laugh at to which calls are reviewable to how many games are played or how many playoff teams there are.
The league instituted a dynamic kickoff this season, completely overhauling a traditional element of the sport.
What it really needs is a dynamic draft order.
So how would this work? There are a number of ways.
Right now 14 teams make the playoffs, which leaves 18 on the outside with their offseasons beginning the day the regular season ends. Giving them all an even chance at the top pick seems a bit too extreme; there could be a 10-win team that lost a berth on a tiebreaker, and giving that organization the top pick would not be fair.
So take the bottom eight teams in terms of record along with anyone tied for that eighth-worst spot — no strength-of-schedule or head-to-head tiebreakers, just pure win-loss record — and have them in contention for the first overall pick.
It can be weighted, too. Say, one pingpong ball for each loss. Then start plucking at random. Or pick the first one and have the rest of the early draft go in record order from there.
In that case, if the season were to end today, the Giants, with their victory on Sunday, would have only a slightly worse shot at the top pick than they did before they beat the Colts and the exact same odds as the Browns, Titans and Patriots.
The format also creates two things the NFL absolutely loves: A platform for more trading of draft picks and a made-for-TV broadcast opportunity.
It’s bad for any sports business when a team and its fans have conflicted interests.
That’s where the Giants find themselves today, trying to enjoy a rare, hard-earned, overdue victory while the people who would welcome such a result in September or October defile it in late December.
It doesn’t have to be that way.
Tom Rock began covering sports for Newsday in 1996 and became its NFL columnist in 2022. He previously was Newsday's Giants beat writer beginning in 2008.