A new dawn in Egypt

The historic, grassroots rebellion in Egypt that in 18 exhilarating days forced President Hosni Mubarak to relinquish his 30-year grip on power is an inspiring demonstration of the will to be free.

In the largest, most influential nation in a region famously resistant to change, that irrepressible will relieved 80 million people of the burden of corrupt, autocratic rule. It's a thrilling moment that could mark the flowering of a new era in the history of the Middle East. But what comes next in Egypt is uncertain, and uncertainty is always a cause for worry.

A slide into anarchy or radicalism or a power grab by the military could choke off this extraordinary opportunity for democracy. So there is the risk that what comes next could destabilize a region that is economically and strategically important to the United States.

Our hope is that won't happen, seeing the nature of the protest and the character of the protesters who won the day in Egypt. But democracy is messy - especially new democracy. Progress is likely to come in fits and starts, and that could be unnerving for the United States, given our concerns about oil, trade through the Suez Canal, the breeding of terrorists, and a peaceful resolution of tensions between Israel and the Palestinians.

The struggle for the future of Egypt is in its infancy. In the coming weeks, it's likely that some groups will try to exploit the notion that it was the United States' and Israel's pursuit of their own interests in the region that were to blame for the decades of oppression. The United States does have a dubious history of enabling autocratic rulers. Tear gas canisters labeled "Made in USA" that were used against protesters were visible evidence of our close alliance with Mubarak.

But from their first days in Tahrir Square, protesters were clear about who they blamed for stealing their futures. It was Mubarak's repressive kleptocracy, not outside forces such as Israel or international anti-Muslim sentiment. The Egyptian revolution vividly demonstrated that a determined, broad-based nonviolent movement is a far more powerful force for freedom and prosperity than suicide bombers.

And after toppling Mubarak through sheer force of will, the Egyptian people are unlikely to tolerate any change that is merely cosmetic.

Mubarak tried that as the clock wound down on his regime, first offering a new government, with him still at the helm; then promising not to run for re-election, and finally handing power to his confidant and hand-picked vice president, Omar Suleiman.

The Egyptian people weren't mollified. The crowds in the streets grew larger, and their call for Mubarak to leave grew louder. But one of the rebellion's greatest strengths - that it grew organically from the bottom up, knit together partly by social media and greatly influenced by Al-Jazeera coverage with little in the way of visible leadership - could be one of its greatest weaknesses in the days and months ahead.

Mubarak left the military in charge. With no organized political parties or other institutions ready to fill the void, the army - which is trusted and respected in Egypt - may be the only one capable of seeing the nation through to what will be its most important presidential election.

But there is a risk that interim control could turn into permanent rule if military officers look to retain their wealth and privilege as the nation's 80 million people - half younger than 25 and many educated but living in poverty - demand a fairer shake. So one key to Egypt's future is whether the army will peacefully hand over power to an elected government when that pivotal moment arrives.

President Barack Obama promised Friday that the United States would continue to be "a friend and partner to Egypt" in the difficult days ahead. He said he will take the lead of the Egyptians, an important departure from the past. This is not about us but about them.

The Egyptian people have made it quite clear that they will determine their own destiny.

For more information..

Center for Strategic and International Studies: Anthony Cordesman's commentary, "If Mubarak Leaves: The Role of the Egyptian military."

Audio: A Conversation on the Unrest in Egypt from January 28 2011