Voter snow-pression?

Daily Point

An Election Day snow job in CD3?

Democrat Tom Suozzi was offering free rides to the polls. Text messages encouraging a vote for Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip mixed politics and governing, as they were accompanied by a “special election weather update” from GOP Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman who also offered rides so people could cast their votes.

The big question in CD3 Tuesday was which candidate would benefit from what appears to be low Election Day turnout due to an early morning snowstorm that covered the district in several inches of snow.

Even as the Blakeman texts were circulating, one GOP observer said Republicans were late to the storm-prep, ride-providing effort.

“The first I heard of help getting to the polls was at Franklin Square headquarters last night. Suozzi’s been preparing for days,” the observer said. By midday, the Democrats said they received 25 responses to their offer of rides, with several booked for later in the day.

In the afternoon, the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund's PAC tweeted that it had paid for multiple private snow plowings Tuesday in GOP strongholds. Might that extra help have been needed because municipal workers in Republican towns were busy getting out the vote, a perk of being the party in power? Several observers told The Point that streets in Plainview and surrounding neighborhoods were not plowed by early afternoon.

“I got a few calls about it,” said Nassau Legis. Arnold Drucker, a Democrat. “It’s rather disconcerting considering it’s well recognized that the Plainview, Syosset, Old Bethpage area is one of the few strongholds for Democrats — and the Town of Oyster Bay knows that very well.”

Drucker said his office has been in touch with town officials, who said “plows are out there as we speak.”

“I’m hearing otherwise,” Drucker said just before 2 p.m.

After a drive around his legislative district, Drucker told The Point that the main roads seemed fine, either thanks to earlier plowing or some melting. The side roads, however, had not been plowed from what he could tell, though in some spots, the snow had been flattened a bit as other cars drove on it.

The lack of clear side streets, Drucker said, makes it “ostensibly challenging for residents to make the effort to overcome that obstacle before reaching the main roads.”

The storm, sources said, was helpful in at least one way: Poll workers and inspectors showed up early to get ahead of the weather — and the polls have been running smoothly all day.

By the numbers

As of 6 p.m., Nassau’s total Election Day turnout stood at 56,602. Republican voters were outpacing Democratic voters but not by much; 20,033 Democrats — or 35.4% — had turned out to vote, compared with 21,675 Republicans, or 38.3%. That was a pretty significant pickup from earlier in the day, when the snow was still falling. As of 12:45 p.m., turnout stood at just 17,250.

Blanks — those voters who aren’t registered with a specific party — continue to be one of the keys to this race, and 12,309 of them had come out as of 6 p.m.

Earlier projections were that Nassau’s Election Day final vote would top out at around 70,000, which would be low compared with early-voting numbers, though the late increase in turnout might push that total higher.

The unexpectedly low turnout, especially in Queens, prompted Suozzi to hold a news conference Tuesday afternoon, urging people to vote.

Tuesday afternoon's totals are on top of the 57,730 Nassau County residents who voted during the nine days of early voting, when 42% of the vote came from Democrats, 34% came from Republicans, and 20% came from blanks. Meanwhile, the 11,846 absentee ballots Nassau had received as of midday Monday broke down with 52% coming from Democrats and 27.4% from Republicans.

Meanwhile, in Queens, which represents about 25% of the district, a total of 20,396 voters — combining both Election Day and the early vote — had turned out as of 6 p.m.

What to watch for

The returns will be covered live — both locally and by national media outlets. Polls close at 9 p.m. but Nassau County’s posting of returns is notoriously slow. Once the first numbers are posted, the first clues about the outcome will be seen in how successful Republicans and Democrats were cutting into the other side’s base.

Here is a crib sheet for Point insiders who might want to follow along:

• Were Democrats able to keep their politically moderate Jewish voters? The precincts being scrutinized are Syosset, Woodbury, Jericho, Roslyn, Plainview, Old Bethpage, South Great Neck and the Bay Terrace neighborhood in Queens.
• Did Orthodox and Conservative Jews in Great Neck come out in the same strong numbers for Pilip as in November’s legislative race? Pilip’s crushing of the vote there is one of the reasons she got the Republican nomination.
• Did the bright red GOP strongholds of Massapequa and Levittown enthusiastically support the party, despite Pilip being an unfamiliar face and not embracing Donald Trump until the final days of the campaign?
• Democrats tasked organized labor, especially the building trades, with converting members who were registered Republicans, especially in Oyster Bay’s South Shore communities. Were they able to make any inroads?

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com, Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com, Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday

Pencil Point

No love lost

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History Point

Behind the CD3 election, a special history, and a mystery

Tuesday’s special election to determine a successor to the fabulist George Santos in the 3rd Congressional District is hardly a New York unicorn. The Empire State has had 69 previous special elections for Congress alone, according to congressional records. Like the current campaign, some were very high profile — the 1978 contest to replace Ed Koch, who was elected New York City mayor; the 2009 race to fill the vacancy when Kirsten Gillibrand was chosen to succeed Hillary Clinton in the U.S. Senate; the 2011 campaign to replace the disgraced Anthony Weiner; and the 2015 contest to elect a successor for Michael Grimm after his conviction on tax fraud and perjury charges.

Nor is the current contest a Long Island unicorn. A handful of special elections involving seats representing Long Island were held as far back as the earliest days of the republic.

The Island’s first special election featured James Townsend of Jericho, who had won his seat in April 1790 when he defeated incumbent William Floyd — yes, the founding father, signer of the Declaration of Independence, and namesake of a parkway, estate and school district.

But after pulling the upset, Townsend, a Federalist, died on May 24, 1790, less than a month after his election and before his term even began. To fill the vacancy, a special election was held in April 1791 and Anti-Federalist Thomas Tredwell, a Smithtown native, was elected to serve the remainder of Townsend’s term.

One of Long Island’s most accomplished representatives, Samuel L. Mitchill, was involved in two special elections. A Hempstead native and later resident of Plandome, Mitchill completed both medical school (in Scotland) and law school and taught at Columbia University. He created the need for one special election by resigning his House seat in 1804 after winning election to the U.S. Senate. After serving one term in the Senate and stepping down, Mitchill then returned to the House by winning another special election whose circumstances might have a ring of modern familiarity.

The opening was created by the resignation of William Denning, who served from March 4, 1809 until his resignation in 1810 — despite never having been sworn in. A mysterious reference to Denning, a merchant, in the archives of the U.S. House of Representatives gives the reason for his resignation as “never having qualified.” And his bio in those same archives notes that he was “born probably” in St. John’s in Newfoundland, Canada, before moving to New York City.

Shades of Santos?

— Michael Dobie michael.dobie@newsday.com, Amanda Fiscina-Wells amanda.fiscina-wells@newsday.com

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