Unemployment rate on Long Island falls to 2.9%, first annual decline since 2023
Al Morgan, center, from Suffolk Transportation Service, speaks with Brian McGarry, right, of East Islip, during a job fair at Bellport Hagerman East Patchogue Alliance, Inc. in Bellport on Oct. 10. Credit: Newsday/Steve Pfost
Long Island’s unemployment rate shrank in September compared to the same month in 2023, marking the first time in 18 months that the region’s jobless rate has seen a decrease.
The Island’s unemployment rate fell to 2.9% last month, down 0.4 percentage points from a rate of 3.3% in September 2023, according to recently released state Labor Department data. On a month-to-month basis, the jobless rate fell from 3.8% in August.
The unemployment rate in Nassau County fell to 2.8% last month from 3.3% the same month last year. In Suffolk, the rate was down to 2.9% from 3.4% a year earlier.
The drop marks the first month since April 2023 that the unemployment rate has declined on a year-over-year basis, according to state data.
While a declining unemployment rate often means more unemployed residents have successfully found employment, lowering the total number of jobless Islanders, numbers from September indicate that both the number of employed and unemployed residents fell.
Long Island’s labor force — the total number of all employed residents and all residents out of work but actively job hunting — declined last month to 1.53 million from 1.56 million in September 2023.
Shital Patel, a labor market analyst with the state labor department’s Hicksville office, said the decline in the rate was more a function of math than of increased levels of employment.
"If your denominator [the labor force] is getting smaller, then whatever that unemployment percentage would be declines," Patel said. "Mathematically, your unemployment rate will shrink."
The number of employed Islanders fell to 1.49 million last month from 1.5 million in September 2023. The number of unemployed residents declined from 51,800 to 44,000 during the same period.
Patel said one puzzling aspect about the September numbers — the latest figures available — is that from August into September, the region saw an increase in jobs when a decrease is the norm.
Between August and September, the number of employed residents grew by 14,200, when a decline of 17,500 is typical. Patel said from August to September, it’s normal for summer seasonal employers to let go of staff, leading to declines in the number of employed Islanders.
Patel said it’s hard to know exactly why the Island’s labor force had shown continued year-over-year declines without detailed demographic data — monthly jobless rate data comes from a smaller survey of households statewide — but that recent census data might offer a potential explanation.
"New data showed that in 2023, Long Island had a larger percentage of residents 65 and older working than the nation overall, and perhaps some of that population has decided to retire," she said.
John Rizzo, an economist and Stony Brook University professor, said the September data painted a picture of two competing views of the economy that were at odds.
"I think there are mixed signals here," Rizzo said.
"Continued hiring in seasonal jobs tells me that those businesses are anticipating a strong holiday season," Rizzo added. "But against that trend is an overall decline in the labor force, which makes the unemployment rate look artificially better than the labor market really is."
Considering the Federal Reserve’s recent cut to interest rates, Rizzo said it’s possible that some seasonal employers, like those in leisure and hospitality, saw the cut as putting more disposable income in the pockets of consumers.
At the same time, fears over a resurgence in inflation may be worrying some employers in different industries, leading to a tightening of the belt when it comes to bringing on new hires.
"Some people are looking at the rate cut as good news and are thinking, ‘we can hire,’ and apparently that was happening in the service sector," he said. "There are other sectors that clearly are not. There are competing factors at work here."
On the Island, the municipalities with the highest and lowest unemployment rates in September were the Village of Freeport, at 3.4%, and the Town of Southampton, at 2.5%.
Long Island’s unemployment rate shrank in September compared to the same month in 2023, marking the first time in 18 months that the region’s jobless rate has seen a decrease.
The Island’s unemployment rate fell to 2.9% last month, down 0.4 percentage points from a rate of 3.3% in September 2023, according to recently released state Labor Department data. On a month-to-month basis, the jobless rate fell from 3.8% in August.
The unemployment rate in Nassau County fell to 2.8% last month from 3.3% the same month last year. In Suffolk, the rate was down to 2.9% from 3.4% a year earlier.
The drop marks the first month since April 2023 that the unemployment rate has declined on a year-over-year basis, according to state data.
While a declining unemployment rate often means more unemployed residents have successfully found employment, lowering the total number of jobless Islanders, numbers from September indicate that both the number of employed and unemployed residents fell.
Long Island’s labor force — the total number of all employed residents and all residents out of work but actively job hunting — declined last month to 1.53 million from 1.56 million in September 2023.
Shital Patel, a labor market analyst with the state labor department’s Hicksville office, said the decline in the rate was more a function of math than of increased levels of employment.
"If your denominator [the labor force] is getting smaller, then whatever that unemployment percentage would be declines," Patel said. "Mathematically, your unemployment rate will shrink."
The number of employed Islanders fell to 1.49 million last month from 1.5 million in September 2023. The number of unemployed residents declined from 51,800 to 44,000 during the same period.
Patel said one puzzling aspect about the September numbers — the latest figures available — is that from August into September, the region saw an increase in jobs when a decrease is the norm.
Between August and September, the number of employed residents grew by 14,200, when a decline of 17,500 is typical. Patel said from August to September, it’s normal for summer seasonal employers to let go of staff, leading to declines in the number of employed Islanders.
Patel said it’s hard to know exactly why the Island’s labor force had shown continued year-over-year declines without detailed demographic data — monthly jobless rate data comes from a smaller survey of households statewide — but that recent census data might offer a potential explanation.
"New data showed that in 2023, Long Island had a larger percentage of residents 65 and older working than the nation overall, and perhaps some of that population has decided to retire," she said.
John Rizzo, an economist and Stony Brook University professor, said the September data painted a picture of two competing views of the economy that were at odds.
"I think there are mixed signals here," Rizzo said.
"Continued hiring in seasonal jobs tells me that those businesses are anticipating a strong holiday season," Rizzo added. "But against that trend is an overall decline in the labor force, which makes the unemployment rate look artificially better than the labor market really is."
Considering the Federal Reserve’s recent cut to interest rates, Rizzo said it’s possible that some seasonal employers, like those in leisure and hospitality, saw the cut as putting more disposable income in the pockets of consumers.
At the same time, fears over a resurgence in inflation may be worrying some employers in different industries, leading to a tightening of the belt when it comes to bringing on new hires.
"Some people are looking at the rate cut as good news and are thinking, ‘we can hire,’ and apparently that was happening in the service sector," he said. "There are other sectors that clearly are not. There are competing factors at work here."
On the Island, the municipalities with the highest and lowest unemployment rates in September were the Village of Freeport, at 3.4%, and the Town of Southampton, at 2.5%.
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