NYS voters send a more nuanced message to Republicans and Democrats, analysts say

ALBANY — Republicans say voters in this month’s national and state election showed a "realignment" of New York politics, while Democrats say they need to heed some hard lessons to unify the party.

But independent political experts say both parties are oversimplifying the nuanced signals voters are sending.

This time, Republicans nationally and in the state successfully focused on the need for greater affordability, less crime and stricter immigration enforcement. They painted the Democratic progressive wing as radicals who are out of touch with reality.

The result was that Republicans returned Donald Trump to the White House, took control of Congress and narrowed the presidential vote margin in Democratic-dominated New York to the slimmest margin in three decades. Analysts, however, question whether they can do it again without Trump at the head of the ticket the next time.

For all the GOP gains, Democrats won back three congressional seats in New York State and easily won a U.S. Senate seat. Voters also overwhelmingly passed a progressive constitutional amendment. Though Republicans picked up a State Senate seat, Democrats still control both houses of the State Legislature.

Still, the national setbacks for Democrats have prompted calls for more moderation in messaging and more of a focus on bread-and-butter issues on which the party was based, but which now share space with more progressive social issues. Analysts question whether Democrats can quell their progressive wing and unify the party to regain the middle-class suburban vote.

Both state parties say they have emerged from the election stronger.

Republican chairman Ed Cox, in an opinion piece in Newsday, said, "Republicans have broadened our coalition and brought a once-in-a-lifetime shift in our voter base, drawing in working-class Americans, voters of color, and younger citizens disillusioned with the status quo."

Republicans used gut-level messaging to contend with the Democrats’ advantages of an extensive "ground game" traditionally used to attract voters, independent analysts said.

State Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs said Cox’s bravado doesn’t match the results in New York.

"He takes credit for an awful lot," Jacobs told Newsday. "In New York State, Republicans didn’t do well. They lost ... congressional seats that they won the last time. They picked up one state Senate seat, but they didn’t do well across the state … there was no shift."

But the chairmen left out some uncomfortable facts, analysts said.

"Both state party chairs are right. And wrong," said Hank Sheinkopf, a 40-year veteran political strategist.

Republicans successfully wielded "gut messaging. It has to hit you in the gut and be personal," Sheinkopf said. "Trump has given Republicans a boost by emotionalizing these trends."

"Democrats are seeking the intellectual answer," Sheinkopf said. "Democrats will talk this to death while their pollsters take over campaigns filling ads with intellectual blather."

Republicans "can’t spike the football just yet," said Lee Miringoff, political scientist and pollster at Marist College.

"Many Democrats stayed home, which … speaks to their lack of successful messaging, and not necessarily a triumph for the GOP approach," Miringoff said. Yet Republicans "still face major headwinds in New York state, especially in the suburbs, where their congressional tally was weaker."

Republicans face other obstacles, too. The U.S. Constitution prohibits Trump from running for a third term, so he won’t be at the top of the state ballot again as in November to draw voters.

And although Cox said voters rejected Democrats because they pushed "radical policies and government overreach," voters in November overwhelmingly passed a progressive constitutional amendment. The Equal Rights Amendment further protects abortion rights and protects people from discrimination based on sexual orientation, identity and expression.

Yet Democrats also acknowledge voters sent a message to the party about such progressive priorities.

"If Democrats are going to win in competitive seats and competitive areas of our state, we are all going to have be far more moderate," Jacobs said. "The left-wing folks have to see the writing on the wall after this election."

Jacobs has called for moderation for more than eight years, prompting calls from progressive leaders to replace him.

The Working Families Party, the minor party that has served as the progressive voice of Democrats, said Jacobs is misreading the progressive message in the election.

Ana Maria Archila, co-director of the New York WFP, said the easy approval of the Equal Rights Amendment referendum; the added votes Democratic candidates received from the minor party’s line, and the 263,471 Working Families Party votes cast in New York for Harris shows voters want progressive action.

She cited the tight Hudson Valley race for the 19th Congressional District seat in which the Working Family Party vote of 21,948 gave Democrat Josh Riley the winning margin over Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro.

Democrats have struggled for years with the internal tension with progressives, who want to push the party further left.

"Democrats need to find a way to unify their more moderate suburban vote with their progressive wing," Miringoff said. "This has never been easy for the Democrats and they will be tested."

"The Democrats are going to need to focus more on issues that matter to more voters," Miringoff said, "namely, bread-and-butter economic concerns. They need to find an agenda that encapsulates change. Or, they may find their advantage shrinking."

The numbers from November signal some reasons for concern:

The Democratic presidential ticket headed by Kamala Harris attracted fewer votes in New York state than the 2020 ticket headed by Joe Biden, while Trump increased his New York vote from 2020.

Harris won New York by 12 points — the closest presidential vote in the state since 1988. Democrats won six of the last seven presidential elections by at least 20 points, although Trump’s 2020 was among the closest before November’s election, said Steven Greenberg of the Siena College poll who spent decades in state politics.

"One election does not a trend make, but two consecutive elections as close as these were — in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by better than 2-to-1 — may be the start of a trend," Greenberg said. "A potential trend which, understandably, gives the Republicans hope and understandably makes Democrats nervous."

By Michael Gormley

michael.gormley@newsday.com@GormleyAlbany

Michael Gormley has worked for Newsday since 2013, covering state government, politics and issues. He has covered Albany since 2001.