Mets offseason preview: Five questions that will dominate their decisions
Pete Alonso of the Mets reacts after his first-inning three-run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS at Citi Field on Friday. Credit: Jim McIsaac
Later than most expected but earlier than they wanted, the Mets officially entered the offseason this week.
It figures to be another winter of significant change for an organization that views itself as on the upswing, with a trip to the National League Championship Series just the start of a longer run of success.
The good part: The Mets are starting with a head of baseball operations, David Stearns, and a manager, Carlos Mendoza, in place. This is just the second time in eight years that they are not embarking on a hiring search to fill one (or both) of those key jobs.
Ahead of Stearns’ season-wrap news conference — 1 p.m. Wednesday at Citi Field — here are five questions that will guide the Mets’ offseason.
1. What will be Pete Alonso’s fate in free agency?
This is the Mets storyline that will hang above all the others. Yes, they may pursue players who will end up with bigger contracts than Alonso. Yes, they have more positions to figure out than just first base. But Alonso, who will reach the open market weeks shy of his 30th birthday, is a face of the franchise and one of the most prolific sluggers in baseball. He is the Mets’ most expensive and most emotional free-agent decision.
About that: Stearns’ whole thing is making roster decisions not based on emotion. Team owner Steve Cohen, though, is free to do so. Cohen hired Stearns to run the team, but it’s normal for owners to be very involved in (nine-figure) calls such as this.
2. Which big fish will the Mets catch (or try to)?
Alternatively: How hard will they go for Juan Soto?
Because the Mets are owned by a multibillionaire hedge-fund boss, their options are practically limitless. Cohen can spend as much money as he wants on whichever players he wants — including Alonso or any of a bunch of other top-tier free agents.
The Yankees’ Soto probably will get the second-largest contract in baseball history (behind Shohei Ohtani's $700 million over 10 years); pursuing him would require Cohen to go head-to-head with Hal Steinbrenner, which they have mostly avoided in recent offseasons. The Orioles’ Corbin Burnes and the Giants’ Blake Snell probably are the top pitchers available. The Astros’ Alex Bregman, the Phillies’ Jeff Hoffman and the Orioles’ Anthony Santander are free agents, too.
An interesting dynamic: In seven seasons in charge of the Brewers and one with the Mets, Stearns has never jumped into the deep end of the free-agent pool. Cohen brought him on in part to reel in the Mets’ spending (so they can offer the big bucks strategically and when merited instead of building the whole roster that way and trying to buy a championship). Their largest outlay last offseason was a two-year, $28 million contract with Sean Manaea.
So the next large-to-gigantic contract will be a new experience for Stearns. After a better-than-imagined 2024, will Cohen be motivated to spend again to go for it? Or will he stick to the more fiscally conservative plan?
3. How will the Mets rebuild the rotation?
Three of their primary starters are headed to free agency: Manaea (who has an opt-out clause), Luis Severino and Jose Quintana. That group combined to start well over half of the Mets’ games in the regular season (and three-quarters of their playoff contests). So they have lots of innings that need filling.
The Mets certainly have bodies: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn and Jose Butto, plus a few interesting prospects on the brink of the majors. But they can stand to add quality to supplement that quantity.
It would behoove the Mets to acquire a bona fide No. 1 starter, which of course is easier said than done. The idea of Senga is great, but after his injury-ravaged season — which at times left team decision-makers befuddled about what was going on with him and when he would pitch again — it’s hard to count on him as an actual ace. If the Mets are counting on Senga to start, say, Game 2 or 3 of a playoff series next year, they’ll be much better positioned.
4. What does an infield glut mean for openings at centerfield and DH?
With Francisco Lindor a cornerstone at shortstop (and first base TBD), the Mets have Mark Vientos, Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, a returning-from-injury Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuna for third base and second base — and that is without factoring in top prospect Jett Williams, who finished the season in Triple-A.
Vientos will be an everyday player after his breakout year and could be an Alonso replacement if he departs, but that’s still a crowded depth chart. McNeil is valuable, and his defensive versatility makes it easy to find room for him. Baty is a classic change-of-scenery trade candidate. Mauricio is super-intriguing and unproven. Acuna and Williams, both of whom play the outfield as well, can open the year in the minors.
Centerfield and designated hitter are the Mets’ largest openings, with Harrison Bader and J.D. Martinez headed for free agency. It will be on Stearns to put this puzzle together.
5. What behind-the-scenes changes will Stearns make?
Upon joining the Mets about a year ago, Stearns said it would take him about a year — a full cycle through the baseball calendar — for him to figure out what he likes and doesn’t like about the organization and what changes need to be made.
And here we are. Stearns got a jump-start on reshaping the baseball department in his vision by laying off dozens of people — including a few longtime and high-ranking executives — late in the season, an unfortunate but routine occurrence early in a new regime.
Now it is time to hire (a process that also is well underway in several departments). The biggest call: Does Stearns want a general manager?
The Mets’ original plan was for Stearns to have a GM under him as the No. 2 baseball exec. That changed when Billy Eppler got suspended by MLB for falsifying injuries, but Stearns has said he will revisit that opening this offseason. If nothing else, hiring a GM is a great excuse to bring in a highly regarded front-office mind from another club.
Tim Healey is the Mets beat writer for Newsday. Born on Long Island and raised in Connecticut, Tim has previously worked for the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Boston Globe and MLB.com. He is also the author of “Hometown Hardball,” a book about minor league baseball in the northeast.
