For Juan Soto, his free-agent scenario couldn't have gone any better
With MLB’s winter meetings officially scheduled to begin Monday in Dallas, it feels somewhat relevant to point out that it happens to fall on Dec. 9.
And why is that date meaningful?
Well, it’s exactly one year to the day that Shohei Ohtani announced his record signing with the Dodgers, on his Instagram account, of course, followed by an email blast from his elated agent, Nez Balelo, who was more than happy to share the contract terms: 10 years, $700 million.
“This is a unique, historic contract,” Balelo said that day in a statement, “for a unique, historic player.”
Precisely one year later, that distinction could be about to expire. Juan Soto — the “generational talent” — appears to be on the verge of getting a contract for the ages, with the long-anticipated, hyper-speculated decision set to be revealed at these meetings, if not in the hours leading up to everyone’s arrival in Dallas.
How did Soto put himself in position to potentially dethrone Ohtani so soon? There’s a few factors at play here.
While Ohtani’s $700 million deal was a jaw-dropping stunner at the time, you could see the Dodgers’ reasoning behind it, considering they acquired both a Cy Young Award-caliber pitcher and MVP-quality DH in one player. Figure on $35 million each; there’s your $70 million annual salary.
Something else that made it much easier for the Dodgers to get to that number: the massive deferrals, as Ohtani’s staggering off-the-field sponsorship income allowed him to take only a $2 million salary for the 10-year length of the contract, which also helped L.A. sidestep the mammoth luxury tax hit.
For Soto, however, it’s all about baseball’s big-market forces at work. Unlike Ohtani, who truly only had eyes for the Dodgers, Soto’s free agency has been the perfect storm. As of Saturday night, he reportedly was down to four teams — with the Dodgers a stalking fifth on the periphery — and agent Scott Boras could not have scripted the endgame any better himself.
Soto is coming off a stellar audition with the Yankees, who got to experience firsthand what he’s capable of doing, as he was a primary reason why they made it to the World Series for the first time since 2009. Hal Steinbrenner was so enamored of Soto that he tried to engage in midseason extension talks — a rarity for the Yankees — but was rebuffed in those efforts.
That fondness only grew through October, and Steinbrenner made sure to take a big role in the team’s November recruiting trip to the West Coast. And if that Bronx taste didn’t put enough pressure on Steinbrenner’s checkbook, Boras was lucky enough to have the perfect crosstown foil in Mets owner Steve Cohen, aka the sport’s richest owner, coming off his own memorable playoff run and hungry to change the balance of power in New York baseball.
It’s not very often that one signing has the ability to alter that landscape, but Soto is precisely that player for the Mets. They not only would land the marquee talent Cohen has been craving since buying the franchise but would have the added benefit of ripping him away from the Yankees. That’s a lot of bang for the buck. And if you’re Cohen, a collector of Picassos with a fortune worth $21 billion, would you ever let yourself be priced out of that chance?
“It’s a great business investment,” Boras said of Soto, 26, last month. “So apart from budgets and how they look at things, you can see that getting an opportunity to acquire a player at this age, with this skill, with this character, with this experience, with so much performance gradient established, they understand the surplus value of it.”
Boras, typically prone to hyperbole, actually undersold Soto in this particular case because he left out the Yankees-Mets dynamic, an agent’s dream for any client. But it actually got better for Soto’s camp as the Red Sox and Blue Jays also emerged as serious suitors, apparently sticking around as the offers reportedly soared past $600 million and settled into the $700 million neighborhood on what presumably is the final weekend of bidding.
Again, Boras couldn’t have imagined a more favorable scenario. The deep-pocketed Red Sox are desperate to re-establish themselves as a contender in their own backyard after a recent austerity period that drew the ire of Boston fandom. And aside from the Mets, who better to spook Steinbrenner & Co. than the Yankees' ancient rival? The Red Sox share the same division and play the Yankees 13 times each season.
The Mets are an existential threat to the Yankees’ New York supremacy. The Red Sox, should they acquire Soto, represent a real obstacle to the pursuit of the AL East title and another trip to the World Series.
As for the Blue Jays, they don’t spike the anxiety levels of those other three despite the financial might of Rogers Communications, the ownership group that was played by Ohtani a year ago. That’s not to say the Blue Jays couldn’t throw enough money at Soto to entice him north of the border. As of Saturday night, nobody knew for sure which way he was leaning, a stance he’s maintained since the final out of the World Series.
As one person with (limited) knowledge of the bidding war conceded this weekend, “It’s being kept very close to the vest.”
However this turns out, Soto seems determined to beat Ohtani’s $700 million mark and possibly even his deferral-adjusted AAV, which is estimated at $46 million, based on how his dollars will be paid out by the Dodgers through 2043.
Soto’s free agency has felt as if it’s lasted two decades but now appears close to a resolution.