Bruce who? Most NYers don't know enough about Blakeman

Daily Point

Blakeman's search for a little momentum

Presuming anything from poll results six months before an election can make for some perishable messaging. On April 14, President Donald Trump crowed on social media: "Bruce Blakeman, the highly respected and very popular Nassau County Executive, who is running for Governor, is surging in the New York State Polls. He is one of the best politicians in the U.S. Watch him work his magic!!!"

But Tuesday, the Siena Research Institute released new polling data that showed Blakeman's earlier modest rise against Gov. Kathy Hochul in the state had slipped. Hochul's lead over Blakeman showed a 3-point growth since the institute's previous tabulations on the race last month, with the incumbent now leading her GOP challenger 49%-33%. This occurred even as Hochul's favorability and approval ratings dropped 8 points, according to Siena.

These are partisan-shaped results. Blakeman, for now, is showing support from three-quarters of the Republicans polled, with Hochul getting three-quarters of Democrats responding in her favor. But what may be the biggest hill for Blakeman's campaign to climb shows up in results for the suburbs, including his home turf on Long Island, where Blakeman must succeed to win in November. In the New York City suburbs, Hochul led 43%-39%.

Overall, 17% of those polled had a favorable view of Blakeman, 19% an unfavorable view — and a whopping 64% still said they didn't know enough or couldn't say.

The poll of 806 registered voters in New York State was conducted April 27-30, with a margin of error of 4.2%.

To become a familiar face statewide, Blakeman will need money. He is reportedly nearly $20 million behind Hochul in fundraising.

And so, political observers expected fundraising to be a topic in his meeting in Washington Tuesday with his presidential patron. Blakeman could use financial help — especially after the state's public campaign finance board rejected his application for matching funds over a technical error in his filing. He and GOP lawyers are fighting that ruling in court in Albany, where an outcome is expected soon.

Surely the president can provide campaign funds for Blakeman if he so chooses. But the new Siena Poll suggests that in New York, in the months ahead, the county executive's adherence to Trump could prove more of an anchor than a pair of wings.

In the suburbs, Trump received 41% favorable among those polled and unfavorable among 57%. Upstate, Trump now shows as 35% favorable and 62% unfavorable, also potentially bad news for Blakeman. Trump's favorability notably fell among New York Republicans.

In April 2022, the year Hochul won her first full term despite a red wave on Long Island, her eventual general election opponent, Suffolk's Lee Zeldin, rated 22% favorable and 19% unfavorable, with 59% "don't know" or "no opinion."

But that campaign had a whole different dynamic. It brought midterm blowback against President Joe Biden. The House flipped back to Republican. With the political winds reversed, Blakeman is expected to face a rockier path to the Executive Mansion than Zeldin, the congressman who came unexpectedly close to beating Hochul. Yet the tickets are still filling out. Primaries in other races don't come until next month, world events are volatile, and it's still too early to take any polling numbers to the bank, or even to the prediction markets if you're prudent.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

Pencil Point

The finish line

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Final Point

Taxpayer-funded ad campaign targets Hochul, 'hi-density' housing

At first, the television spot sounds and looks like a campaign ad, even featuring Hempstead Town Supervisor John Ferretti's name in the corner.

But by the end, it becomes clear that the ad, which attacks the proposed REVIVE Act, a bill in Albany that would encourage housing development on underutilized or vacant parcels, is paid for by the Town of Hempstead itself.

The taxpayer-funded ad against a bill that is stalled in the legislative process is running on streaming services and cable TV. It features Ferretti's name and title in the lower right-hand corner, with a large headline: "Stop Hi-Density Housing."

Without mentioning the bill by name, the ad warns that "Albany legislators and Governor [Kathy] Hochul" are attempting to "override local zoning and grant high density urban housing projects on Long Island."

"Their legislation would allow huge housing projects without any local approvals to stop them," a voice-over says, against a backdrop of photos of large city skyscrapers.

At the end, the ad features a list of Hempstead Town officials, including Ferretti, members of the town board, Town Clerk Kate Murray and Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll, who is now running for Congress in CD4. All are Republicans, except town board member Dorothy Goosby, who often votes with the Republican majority.

The ad asks viewers to "tell extreme Albany politicians' hands off local zoning," and features a QR code that brings viewers to a change.org petition that indicates it was begun by the town and currently has almost 1,500 signatures. That petition is directed at Hochul, along with fellow Democrats Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, who have nothing to do with the state legislative process.

Hempstead Town spokesman Brian Devine did not respond to The Point's queries regarding how much the town spent on the campaign. But he did issue a statement regarding the ad.

"Local control of zoning is a fundamental government issue because it's about protecting and preserving the character of our communities, which have been under constant assault from Albany extremists," Devine said in the statement. "The Town has and will continue to stand firm against Albany's heavy-handed power grab to ensure that the future of our neighborhoods is decided by the people who actually live here, not by distant bureaucrats trying to force high-density mandates on our suburban communities." 

The REVIVE Act is sponsored by Democratic Assemb. Michaelle Solages, who lives in the Town of Hempstead. Hochul has not yet taken a public position on the bill.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

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