China's exports grew 12.7% in October, fastest pace in more than 2 years

HONG KONG — China's exports rose 12.7% in October from a year earlier, the fastest monthly growth in more than two years, according to customs data released Thursday.

The report came a day after former President Donald Trump won Tuesday’s election, gaining a second term as president. Trump has pledged to increase tariffs on imports from China to 60%, adding to uncertainty over the outlook for exports to the U.S.

It showed imports fell 2.3% in October from a year earlier, while China’s trade surplus rose to $95.7 billion in October, up from $81.7 billion in September.

Exports far surpassed analyst’s estimates of about 5.5% growth and outpaced September’s growth of just 2.4%. It was the fastest expansion since July 2022.

The growth in October’s exports signaled sustained demand for Chinese goods abroad, while demand in the domestic market remains subdued.

China’s exports to Russia rose almost 27% from the same time last year, customs data showed, the fastest pace in 11 months. Exports to the U.S. increased by 8% year-on-year, while shipment to the European Union climbed nearly 13%.

China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) — China's largest trading partner by region — jumped 16%.

Economists say that the effect of higher tariffs under Trump would not take effect until next year.

“Although Trump’s proposed tariffs would hurt the export sector, their impact would be less significant than many fear –- we think they could lower export volumes by around 3% – and may not be felt until the second half of 2025,” Zichun Huang of Capital Economics said in a report.

“Meanwhile, Trump’s return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as U.S. importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs,” Huang said.

Beijing is expected to unveil a long-awaited stimulus package on Friday during a top legislative body meeting aimed at revitalizing the economy amid deflationary pressures and lackluster consumer spending.

China’s leaders have been struggling to rev up the economy since the COVID-19 pandemic ended.

The U.S. and Europe recently raised tariffs on China’s exports of electric vehicles and other products, darkening the outlook for China’s trade as an engine of growth. A prolonged slump in the property industry also remains a major drag on the Chinese economy.

Chinese policymakers have already announced a slew of measures to boost the economy, including frontloading 200 billion yuan ($28.2 billion) from next year’s budget for spending and construction projects.

In October, China's manufacturing activity expanded for the first time after months of decline.