Long Islanders face serious financial threat from flooding, report finds
Long Beach, Freeport and Oceanside ranked in the top 20 of communities threatened by floods, according to a report released Wednesday. Shown is Carman Street in Freeport in January. Credit: Newsday/J. Conrad Williams Jr.
More than 530,000 Long Islanders live in properties at serious risk of flooding, according to new estimates published Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
That represents more than 1 in 6 Long Islanders.
The threat posed by flooding is no longer relevant only to coastal communities in or around New York City, the report found. Inland areas around the tristate area face potential flooding from heavy rainfall, flash floods and overflowing rivers, according to the report.
"Yes, there’s a lot of coastal flood risk, perhaps even more than we anticipated, but really it was that inland risk," that stood out, said Jacob Scott, who co-authored the report for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Long Island experienced that type of event in August when 6-to-10 inches of rain fell rapidly on communities in Suffolk County, including Miller Place and Stony Brook, flooding homes and causing tens of millions in estimated damages.
Long Islanders need to start thinking differently about flood risk, which no longer applies only to waterfront South Shore areas, said Richard Murdocco, an adjunct professor at Stony Brook University who teaches courses in environmental policy and planning.
Murdocco said he recently bought flood insurance for his Smithtown home for $670 a year even though he’s not required to be insured and doesn’t live near a river or bay.
"I did it because the topography poses risk and we just can’t handle 14 inches of rain," Murdocco said. "It’s inland risk now and it’s not from storm surge, which is still a risk and concern, or erosion. Add to that now inundation from extreme rainfall events."
Some parts of Long Island ranked among the areas with the most households facing serious flood risk in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Long Beach ranked No. 7, Freeport ranked No. 16 and Oceanside ranked No. 18. Brooklyn, the state's most populous county, had the greatest number of at-risk households.
The report evaluated properties using climate risk data from CoreLogic, a real estate data and analytics company. That data included properties’ average annual loss, or the damage a property can expect to sustain in a given year due to flooding as a share of the property’s insurable value, according to the report.
Properties with annual average losses above the national 75th percentile — in other word the 25% of riskiest properties in the U.S. — were deemed to have serious flood risk. There were more than 1 million such properties, housing around 4 million people, that met that criteria in the tristate area.
The financial threat of flooding can be particularly harmful to people with low-to-moderate incomes. The analysis found an estimated 1.5 million low-to-moderate income people living in high-risk properties, including about 174,000 on Long Island. Long Beach had the seventh-most low-to-moderate income households living in at-risk properties, while Freeport ranked No. 20 in the tristate area.
"Long Island is a place of extreme wealth but also pockets of concentrated poverty," said Claire Kramer Mills, a co-author of the report. "That’s something to flag — the magnitude of the risk to low-and-moderate income residents."
The cost of flood insurance is also rising. Changes to the National Flood Insurance Program that took effect in 2022, called Risk Rating 2.0, have led to escalating premiums for properties in higher-risk areas, Newsday reported earlier this year. The average flood insurance premium on Long Island will nearly double to about $2,500 a year in the coming years compared to prices under the old system.
Part of the reason flood insurance costs will keep escalating is because only people located in federally designated flood zones are required to buy insurance, said Aaron Stein, owner of the insurance brokerage Norton and Siegel in Babylon. That has created the misconception that only those people need insurance to protect themselves from the costs of flood damage, he said.
The looming threat of floods also causes greater affordability issues on Long Island because first-time homebuyers must factor in the cost of flood insurance if they want to buy a home where such coverage is required, Stein said.
Ultimately, he suspects some homebuyers will steer clear of homes with costly flood insurance bills in the same way they might consider the cost of property taxes.
"At some point, it will start to affect property values just like taxes," Stein said.
More than 530,000 Long Islanders live in properties at serious risk of flooding, according to new estimates published Wednesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
That represents more than 1 in 6 Long Islanders.
The threat posed by flooding is no longer relevant only to coastal communities in or around New York City, the report found. Inland areas around the tristate area face potential flooding from heavy rainfall, flash floods and overflowing rivers, according to the report.
"Yes, there’s a lot of coastal flood risk, perhaps even more than we anticipated, but really it was that inland risk," that stood out, said Jacob Scott, who co-authored the report for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
WHAT TO KNOW
- More than 530,000 Long Islanders live in properties at serious risk of flooding, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Flood risk poses a growing threat to inland properties, in addition to the coastal areas at risk in the tristate area.
- The financial risk is magnified for low-to-moderate income households less apt to handle the costs of insurance and property damage.
Long Island experienced that type of event in August when 6-to-10 inches of rain fell rapidly on communities in Suffolk County, including Miller Place and Stony Brook, flooding homes and causing tens of millions in estimated damages.
Long Islanders need to start thinking differently about flood risk, which no longer applies only to waterfront South Shore areas, said Richard Murdocco, an adjunct professor at Stony Brook University who teaches courses in environmental policy and planning.
Murdocco said he recently bought flood insurance for his Smithtown home for $670 a year even though he’s not required to be insured and doesn’t live near a river or bay.
"I did it because the topography poses risk and we just can’t handle 14 inches of rain," Murdocco said. "It’s inland risk now and it’s not from storm surge, which is still a risk and concern, or erosion. Add to that now inundation from extreme rainfall events."
Some parts of Long Island ranked among the areas with the most households facing serious flood risk in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Long Beach ranked No. 7, Freeport ranked No. 16 and Oceanside ranked No. 18. Brooklyn, the state's most populous county, had the greatest number of at-risk households.
The report evaluated properties using climate risk data from CoreLogic, a real estate data and analytics company. That data included properties’ average annual loss, or the damage a property can expect to sustain in a given year due to flooding as a share of the property’s insurable value, according to the report.
Properties with annual average losses above the national 75th percentile — in other word the 25% of riskiest properties in the U.S. — were deemed to have serious flood risk. There were more than 1 million such properties, housing around 4 million people, that met that criteria in the tristate area.
The financial threat of flooding can be particularly harmful to people with low-to-moderate incomes. The analysis found an estimated 1.5 million low-to-moderate income people living in high-risk properties, including about 174,000 on Long Island. Long Beach had the seventh-most low-to-moderate income households living in at-risk properties, while Freeport ranked No. 20 in the tristate area.
"Long Island is a place of extreme wealth but also pockets of concentrated poverty," said Claire Kramer Mills, a co-author of the report. "That’s something to flag — the magnitude of the risk to low-and-moderate income residents."
The cost of flood insurance is also rising. Changes to the National Flood Insurance Program that took effect in 2022, called Risk Rating 2.0, have led to escalating premiums for properties in higher-risk areas, Newsday reported earlier this year. The average flood insurance premium on Long Island will nearly double to about $2,500 a year in the coming years compared to prices under the old system.
Part of the reason flood insurance costs will keep escalating is because only people located in federally designated flood zones are required to buy insurance, said Aaron Stein, owner of the insurance brokerage Norton and Siegel in Babylon. That has created the misconception that only those people need insurance to protect themselves from the costs of flood damage, he said.
The looming threat of floods also causes greater affordability issues on Long Island because first-time homebuyers must factor in the cost of flood insurance if they want to buy a home where such coverage is required, Stein said.
Ultimately, he suspects some homebuyers will steer clear of homes with costly flood insurance bills in the same way they might consider the cost of property taxes.
"At some point, it will start to affect property values just like taxes," Stein said.
Jonathan LaMantia covers residential real estate and other business news on Long Island. He previously covered the business of health care for Crain's New York Business.
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