India's Adani Group shares show some recovery despite uncertainty over US bribery and fraud charges

NEW DELHI — Indian tycoon and one of Asia's richest men, Gautam Adani, may be facing his biggest challenge yet with an indictment by U.S. prosecutors for alleged fraud and bribery. But it was unclear just how far the implications will affect his businesses and own future — as well as the Indian economy and government.

On Friday, shares in the Adani Group's companies began ticking back up after they plunged a day earlier following the announcement of the charges in New York. The stock prices of most of his 10 listed companies were up between 1% to 4% by midday.

Adani, a major power player in India perceived as close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was charged with securities fraud and conspiracy to commit securities and wire fraud at a court in Brooklyn, New York.

The test for Adani, whose multibillion dollar empire spawning everything from energy and ports to media and agriculture, comes just after the 62-year-old founder and his sprawling business empire had bounced back after losing more than $60 billion in market value in early 2023 following allegations of stock price manipulation and fraud by the short-selling firm Hindenburg Research.

Prosecutors on Wednesday alleged that Adani duped investors in a massive solar project in India by concealing that it was being facilitated by bribes. Seven other executives connected to Adani’s sprawling business empire also face charges. The indictment alleges a scheme to pay about $265 million in bribes to government officials in India.

The Adani group denied the allegations against directors of Adani Green Energy, its renewable energy arm, as “baseless” and said they will be seeking legal recourse. None of the people charged in the U.S. have been arrested.

“For Adani, this hits hard, no matter how you slice it. His public relations machine was in overdrive for nearly two years rehabilitating his image following the Hindenburg allegations. This indictment came like a bolt from the blue and instantly reversed all recent progress in salvaging his reputation and business empire,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center.

Adani's imprint across the Indian economy runs deep. He is the country's largest operator of coal mines and infrastructure developer, operating several ports and airports, and employs tens of thousands of people. Despite his fossil fuel roots, Adani has ambitions to become the world's largest player in renewable energy by 2030.

Analysts say a key factor in his meteoric rise over the years has been his knack for aligning his group’s priorities with those of the Modi government, investing in key industries like renewable energy, defense and agriculture. Before Modi, Adani was friendly with other parties in power.

The latest controversy is likely to put Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party-led government, seen as close to Adani, in an awkward spot. Amit Malviya, the BJP's IT head, said in a post on X that the U.S. charges are “allegations and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty,” which critics interpreted as a show of support for the Adani group.

The main opposition party seized on the controversy, demanding Adani's arrest and accusing Modi, who has at times campaigned using an Adani jet, of protecting him. Opposition lawmakers are likely to escalate pressure on Modi when the winter session of parliament begins next week.

Since the U.S. indictment on Wednesday, the controversy has already affected Adani’s interests overseas. Kenya’s president canceled multimillion dollar deals with the Adani group for airport modernization and energy projects. Adani is likely to also face scrutiny in Bangladesh, where a court on Tuesday ordered an inquiry into an energy project.

Adani's troubles also might prove a challenge for Indian government ties with other countries, such as Sri Lanka, where New Delhi is competing with rival Beijing for a strategically important markets.

There's no doubt this is “bad timing for New Delhi," said Kugelman, as it comes at a moment “when it’s trying to capitalize on the business world’s desire to move production out of China and find alternate investment destinations.”

The news also highlights business risks in India that could spook investor, though experts believe the impact will be localized and mostly restricted to the Adani group and its reputation.

“There are no fears of a financial contagion -- at this point, the effect is centered on the group rather than the market. It could slow down the group’s expansion and growth as it will become more difficult for Adani to raise funds,” said Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market analyst.

Still, for many in India, the news isn’t that startling. Business people and the public here know that “there is a rate card for everything,” he said. Investors already know “just how ingrained this (bribes and corruption) is in the fabric of the Indian economy -- you can’t miss it.”

“Initially, investors may stay away for a while - but at the end of the day, they will come back (to Adani). This isn’t some small or medium sized group they can ignore,” Baliga said.