Inflation heats up nationwide and on Long Island, in New York metro area
Inflation increased 0.3% from October to November as prices for housing, energy and particularly food all rose. Credit: Linda Rosier
Inflation remained stubborn this fall, signaling a potentially bumpy road to vanquishing higher prices, which president-elect Donald Trump will have to contend with.
The consumer price index increased 2.7% in November from a year earlier, according to the Labor Department, hotter than a 2.6% rise in October although in line with what economists expected. It was also above a 2.4% annual rise in September.
On a monthly basis, inflation increased 0.3% from October to November, faster than the previous monthly rise, as prices for housing, energy and particularly food all rose.
Excluding volatile food and energy categories, “core” prices were up 0.3% for the fourth straight month. Core prices increased 3.3 percent for the year.
The fresh data underscores the economic concerns of Americans, who voted out incumbents in federal elections last month even as inflation eased for the year.
While Trump criticized President Biden’s administration for failing to curb inflation, the November report makes clear inflation challenges will extend through the next administration, threatening to complicate incoming Republicans’ plans to lower taxes and raise tariffs, policies that could affect inflation.
In the New York area, consumer prices climbed 4.3% last month compared with November 2023, in part because of rises in the cost of natural gas, electricity, housing and groceries, according to William J. Sibley, regional commissioner for the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the consumer price index. November's year-over-year increase was the largest since March 2023's 4.6%.
In October, the index for the 25-county region that includes Long Island was up 4%, year over year.
The cost of natural gas and electricity rose 13.9% and 7.1%, respectively, in November compared with a year earlier. Rent was up 5.5%.
Grocery prices climbed 1.4%, with the largest jumps for meat, poultry, fish and eggs, 4%, and nonalcoholic beverages, 2%.
These increases were partially offset by declines in the cost of cereal and baked goods, down -1.6%, gasoline, -13.4%, and used automobiles, -2.4%.
"Inflation is markedly high in New York relative to national figures," said John A. Rizzo, an economist and Stony Brook University professor on Wednesday. "This reflects in part a relatively strong labor market and consumer spending. But high housing costs also contribute to this pattern," he said.
"Given that the cost of living is already relatively high in New York, the notably higher inflation rate means that lower income and middle income families will find it increasingly difficult to make ends meet," Rizzo told Newsday.
In Islip, Jean Robertson, a retired teacher, wasn't surprised by the rise in the consumer price index.
"That's what I'm seeing every time I go to the grocery store," the Islip resident said as she exited the Dunkin on Montauk Highway in Islip. "I've started shopping at two and three stores to take advantage of the bargains."
Wednesday’s national report lacked major surprises and investors expect the Federal Reserve remains on track for another quarter-point interest rate cut at its final policy meeting next week.
“The CPI confirms the market consensus of another 25 [basis point] rate cut from the Federal Reserve," Vanguard senior U.S. economist Josh Hirt said in a note.
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell and other Fed officials have said they are closely monitoring upcoming economic data without tipping their hand about what they will do at their meeting.
Powell said last week that the central bank could move cautiously to continue cutting interest rates. The economy is in strong shape overall, he said, but inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target.
“Growth is definitely stronger than we thought, and inflation is coming a little higher,” Powell said at a Dec. 4 conference hosted by the New York Times. “The good news is that we can afford to be a little more cautious” lowering interest rates to the point that they neither restrict nor spur economic growth, he added.
The data has been somewhat mixed, with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge - personal consumption expenditures - rising to 2.3% annually in October, matching expectations but above a 2.1 percent annual rate in September. Other data show the labor market to be strong, with employers adding 227,000 job in November.
“The labor market remains solid, and inflation appears to be on a sustainable path to our 2 percent goal, even if there have been some bumps along the way,” Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler said last week, speaking in Detroit.
The recent run-up in prices has weighed on the hearts, minds and pocketbooks of Americans, and political leaders got a heavy dose of inflation-related anger just last month, as Republicans took the White House, the Senate and the House. Three in 10 voters - including 6 in 10 voters for Donald Trump - said they were “falling behind” financially, a 50 percent increase from 2020, according to AP VoteCast exit polls.
With James T. Madore
Inflation remained stubborn this fall, signaling a potentially bumpy road to vanquishing higher prices, which president-elect Donald Trump will have to contend with.
The consumer price index increased 2.7% in November from a year earlier, according to the Labor Department, hotter than a 2.6% rise in October although in line with what economists expected. It was also above a 2.4% annual rise in September.
On a monthly basis, inflation increased 0.3% from October to November, faster than the previous monthly rise, as prices for housing, energy and particularly food all rose.
Excluding volatile food and energy categories, “core” prices were up 0.3% for the fourth straight month. Core prices increased 3.3 percent for the year.
The fresh data underscores the economic concerns of Americans, who voted out incumbents in federal elections last month even as inflation eased for the year.
While Trump criticized President Biden’s administration for failing to curb inflation, the November report makes clear inflation challenges will extend through the next administration, threatening to complicate incoming Republicans’ plans to lower taxes and raise tariffs, policies that could affect inflation.
In the New York area, consumer prices climbed 4.3% last month compared with November 2023, in part because of rises in the cost of natural gas, electricity, housing and groceries, according to William J. Sibley, regional commissioner for the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the consumer price index. November's year-over-year increase was the largest since March 2023's 4.6%.
In October, the index for the 25-county region that includes Long Island was up 4%, year over year.
The cost of natural gas and electricity rose 13.9% and 7.1%, respectively, in November compared with a year earlier. Rent was up 5.5%.
Grocery prices climbed 1.4%, with the largest jumps for meat, poultry, fish and eggs, 4%, and nonalcoholic beverages, 2%.
These increases were partially offset by declines in the cost of cereal and baked goods, down -1.6%, gasoline, -13.4%, and used automobiles, -2.4%.
"Inflation is markedly high in New York relative to national figures," said John A. Rizzo, an economist and Stony Brook University professor on Wednesday. "This reflects in part a relatively strong labor market and consumer spending. But high housing costs also contribute to this pattern," he said.
"Given that the cost of living is already relatively high in New York, the notably higher inflation rate means that lower income and middle income families will find it increasingly difficult to make ends meet," Rizzo told Newsday.
In Islip, Jean Robertson, a retired teacher, wasn't surprised by the rise in the consumer price index.
"That's what I'm seeing every time I go to the grocery store," the Islip resident said as she exited the Dunkin on Montauk Highway in Islip. "I've started shopping at two and three stores to take advantage of the bargains."
Wednesday’s national report lacked major surprises and investors expect the Federal Reserve remains on track for another quarter-point interest rate cut at its final policy meeting next week.
“The CPI confirms the market consensus of another 25 [basis point] rate cut from the Federal Reserve," Vanguard senior U.S. economist Josh Hirt said in a note.
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell and other Fed officials have said they are closely monitoring upcoming economic data without tipping their hand about what they will do at their meeting.
Powell said last week that the central bank could move cautiously to continue cutting interest rates. The economy is in strong shape overall, he said, but inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target.
“Growth is definitely stronger than we thought, and inflation is coming a little higher,” Powell said at a Dec. 4 conference hosted by the New York Times. “The good news is that we can afford to be a little more cautious” lowering interest rates to the point that they neither restrict nor spur economic growth, he added.
The data has been somewhat mixed, with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge - personal consumption expenditures - rising to 2.3% annually in October, matching expectations but above a 2.1 percent annual rate in September. Other data show the labor market to be strong, with employers adding 227,000 job in November.
“The labor market remains solid, and inflation appears to be on a sustainable path to our 2 percent goal, even if there have been some bumps along the way,” Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler said last week, speaking in Detroit.
The recent run-up in prices has weighed on the hearts, minds and pocketbooks of Americans, and political leaders got a heavy dose of inflation-related anger just last month, as Republicans took the White House, the Senate and the House. Three in 10 voters - including 6 in 10 voters for Donald Trump - said they were “falling behind” financially, a 50 percent increase from 2020, according to AP VoteCast exit polls.
With James T. Madore
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