LI's food and beverage industry to see 48% job growth by 2030, state report projects
Finding enough workers to fill openings in Long Island's hospitality industry could limit its growth, experts said. A "Help Wanted" sign hangs in the window of Gino's Pizza on Main Street in Patchogue in 2021. Credit: Newsday/Steve Pfost
Employment at restaurants, bars and other eateries is projected to grow by nearly 50% by 2030, according to a new report and analysis outlining Long Island’s most significant industries.
Jobs in food services and drinking places, a category that includes restaurants, bars, coffee shops, tea and smoothie shops, and fast causal eateries is projected to grow by as much as 48% between 2023 and 2030, according to a newly published state report looking at the Island’s fastest growing and largest industries.
The report, which used data from 2018 to 2023, includes the pandemic's impact on jobs and the region’s subsequent recovery. As of last year, Long Island’s eateries and bars employed 100,200 workers and were projected to increase to 148,570 jobs.
"We’re projecting significantly higher growth for restaurants on Long Island," said Shital Patel, labor market analyst with the state Labor Department’s Hicksville office, and author of the report, released last month.
The report, which made projections from 2020 to 2030, shows that employment in food and beverage businesses — a subcategory of leisure and hospitality — would have one of the fastest job growth rates of any of the 13 top significant industries listed in the report.
The average growth rate for all industries across that 10-year span is 26.3%.
Among food and beverage businesses, snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars — a category that includes cafes, tea shops, and pastry businesses — have seen faster growth than full-service restaurants, which remain 312 jobs below 2019 levels.
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage businesses grew employment by 13.8% between 2018 and 2023, according to state figures.
The drivers behind overall projected growth in food and drink services include the ongoing development of transit-oriented development projects, like Tritec’s Ronkonkoma Hub, that place housing, transit and retail in concentrated areas.
"All the development of transit-oriented projects, they all have room for retail space and a lot of that space will be filled with restaurants, snack places, and bars," Patel said.
Additionally, she said, the move toward hybrid and remote work post-COVID means Long Islanders who might have spent their weekdays in New York City are staying on the Island, and perhaps eating out locally.
A limiting factor to any growth, however, could be finding enough workers to fill openings.
"Labor supply of course is a big issue in our region," Patel said.
Andrew S. Hazen, chief executive of Bagel Boss, a locally based franchise with 13 locations on Long Island and 18 total, said hiring remained a challenge.
"It’s easier but not easy," said Hazen, whose franchise employs between 270 to 325 workers and recently opened a new location in Yaphank. "Labor is one of our biggest difficulties."
Hazen said it’s possible to imagine a nearly 50% increase in employment in food and beverage businesses, assuming the continuation of retail development projects and new competition coming to the Island.
Dorothy Roberts, president of the Long Island Hospitality Association, said restaurant hiring after the pandemic was a major challenge for many businesses.
"It was difficult," she said. "COVID decimated the hospitality industry, and restaurants. They closed up. They had to let go of all their staff. Even going into 2021, hiring was still affected by COVID."
Since 2023, though, Roberts said restaurants and bars seemingly had found it easier to find the workers they needed to meet customer demand.
Employment at restaurants, bars and other eateries is projected to grow by nearly 50% by 2030, according to a new report and analysis outlining Long Island’s most significant industries.
Jobs in food services and drinking places, a category that includes restaurants, bars, coffee shops, tea and smoothie shops, and fast causal eateries is projected to grow by as much as 48% between 2023 and 2030, according to a newly published state report looking at the Island’s fastest growing and largest industries.
The report, which used data from 2018 to 2023, includes the pandemic's impact on jobs and the region’s subsequent recovery. As of last year, Long Island’s eateries and bars employed 100,200 workers and were projected to increase to 148,570 jobs.
"We’re projecting significantly higher growth for restaurants on Long Island," said Shital Patel, labor market analyst with the state Labor Department’s Hicksville office, and author of the report, released last month.
The report, which made projections from 2020 to 2030, shows that employment in food and beverage businesses — a subcategory of leisure and hospitality — would have one of the fastest job growth rates of any of the 13 top significant industries listed in the report.
The average growth rate for all industries across that 10-year span is 26.3%.
Among food and beverage businesses, snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars — a category that includes cafes, tea shops, and pastry businesses — have seen faster growth than full-service restaurants, which remain 312 jobs below 2019 levels.
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage businesses grew employment by 13.8% between 2018 and 2023, according to state figures.
The drivers behind overall projected growth in food and drink services include the ongoing development of transit-oriented development projects, like Tritec’s Ronkonkoma Hub, that place housing, transit and retail in concentrated areas.
"All the development of transit-oriented projects, they all have room for retail space and a lot of that space will be filled with restaurants, snack places, and bars," Patel said.
Additionally, she said, the move toward hybrid and remote work post-COVID means Long Islanders who might have spent their weekdays in New York City are staying on the Island, and perhaps eating out locally.
A limiting factor to any growth, however, could be finding enough workers to fill openings.
"Labor supply of course is a big issue in our region," Patel said.
Andrew S. Hazen, chief executive of Bagel Boss, a locally based franchise with 13 locations on Long Island and 18 total, said hiring remained a challenge.
"It’s easier but not easy," said Hazen, whose franchise employs between 270 to 325 workers and recently opened a new location in Yaphank. "Labor is one of our biggest difficulties."
Hazen said it’s possible to imagine a nearly 50% increase in employment in food and beverage businesses, assuming the continuation of retail development projects and new competition coming to the Island.
Dorothy Roberts, president of the Long Island Hospitality Association, said restaurant hiring after the pandemic was a major challenge for many businesses.
"It was difficult," she said. "COVID decimated the hospitality industry, and restaurants. They closed up. They had to let go of all their staff. Even going into 2021, hiring was still affected by COVID."
Since 2023, though, Roberts said restaurants and bars seemingly had found it easier to find the workers they needed to meet customer demand.
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