Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper this year but still 19% higher than pre-pandemic costs, survey finds

The cost of groceries to make Thanksgiving dinner at home will be a little cheaper than it was last year, but still 19% higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report.

The nationwide average cost of groceries for a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people is $58.08, a 5% decrease from the price last year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 39th annual Thanksgiving survey of grocery prices.

It’s the second consecutive year of declines, after soaring inflation pushed Thanksgiving dinner costs to a record high of $64.06 in 2022, according to the Washington, D.C.-based group's report, which was released Wednesday.

“We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation,” federation President Zippy Duvall said in a statement.

Most of the menu items on the federation’s list have declined in price since last year, mostly due to price volatility in crops, but the star of Thanksgiving dinner — the turkey — made the biggest difference to the overall cost of the meal, the federation reported.

The average price of a 16-pound turkey is $25.67, or $1.68 a pound, a 6% decline from the cost last year, according to the report.

“The turkey is traditionally the main attraction on the Thanksgiving table and is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” federation economist Bernt Nelson said in a statement. “The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal.”

Among the grocery items included in the federation’s classic-dinner menu are a 16-pound turkey, 12 ounces of cubed stuffing mix, two frozen pie crusts, a 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix, 1 pound of frozen peas and 3 pounds of sweet potatoes.

'Just doing what we need'

Overall grocery inflation has slowed since hitting a 43-year high in August 2022, but consumers are still feeling the pinch.

In October, grocery inflation slowed to 1.1% compared to the same month a year earlier but prices are still 27% higher than they were in October 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

West Islip resident Lori Franco and her husband will host about 10 people for Thanksgiving, she said while in a Best Farms supermarket in West Islip on Tuesday morning.

To save money, the Francos are looking for sales and they’ll cut back on how much food they buy this year, said Lori Franco, 43.

When too much food is prepared, “you’re sending everything home with everybody. So, [we’re] just doing what we need and not going crazy like we usually do,” she said.

Joe Peralta and his wife will host about 15 people for Thanksgiving at their Bay Shore home, he said while in Best Farms.

The Peraltas will shop at multiple stores to get items on sale, he said.

“I used to go to one store. Now I can’t. … Thank goodness for the flyers,” said Peralta, 74.

Grocery costs soared in 2022 mostly as a result of supply chain issues that led to steep price increases on a variety of goods during the pandemic, said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody’s Analytics, headquartered in Manhattan.

“It was strong demand with all the stimulus [checks] and [store] reopenings. Basically demand recovered way faster than supply,” he said.

Store brands play catchup

As prices soared during the pandemic, more consumers turned to cheaper store-brand products.

But that led to store-brand prices rising more quickly than name brands, narrowing the gap between the prices, according to a Thanksgiving food report released last week by the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, which provides economic analysis on the grocery market.

Like the federation's survey, the institute found price declines this year in the cost of a Thanksgiving meal — but only if name-brand products are used.

The average price to feed 10 people a Thanksgiving dinner made with name-brand products, including a 16-pound turkey, 2 quarts of stuffing mix and 3 pounds of frozen mixed vegetables, is $90, a decrease of 0.5% from the cost last year, the institute found.

The name-brand items are $17 more than the store-brand versions, but the price of the store-brand items increased 2.7% from last year to $73, the report found.

“When people sell you something, they’re trying to ask, ‘What can I charge?' … The store brand said, ‘Hey, we’re giving away too much value. We can raise our prices a little bit and still get the sales we want,’ ” said Michael Swanson, the chief economist at the institute.

Contending with increased competition for shoppers, retailers are rolling out lower prices on Thanksgiving food to get customers in the doors.

Walmart for the third time is offering its inflation-free Thanksgiving meal, in which the total cost of 29 products is less than it was last year.

The meal will feed seven people for less than $56, Walmart said.

Discount grocer Lidl is advertising items that will feed 10 people Thanksgiving dinner for less than $45.

With growing competition among grocery retailers, particularly as discounters like Lidl and Aldi expand, traditional grocers are forced to offer more Thanksgiving deals, and most take losses on turkey sales, said David Mandell, whose seven grocery stores include a Locust Valley Market and three Holiday Farms supermarkets on Long Island.

“We try to make it up on volume and by getting you to buy as much stuff as we can put out. I think people are definitely watching prices and looking for discounts. For the consumers that have a little bit more expendable income, they can afford to be a little pickier and pay a little bit more for higher-quality products,” Mandell said.

At the two Best Farms supermarkets in Hicksville and West Islip, sales of Thanksgiving foods are down because of cost concerns, said Beatriz Fraschilla, vice president of Frasch Foods Inc., the company that she and her family formed to operate the stores.

"I think it's definitely affecting the consumer. It’s affecting us … I think people are very conscious of their shopping and prices, especially,” she said.

But the wholesale prices of turkeys have come down enough this year to allow Best Farms to resume offering promotions on the birds, which the stores had stopped doing a few years ago, she said.

The stores now are offering a free turkey to each customer who spends a total of at least $200, and a turkey for 99 cents a pound for total spending of at least $100.

By Tory N. Parrish

tory.parrish@newsday.comToryParrish1

Tory N. Parrish covers retail and small business for Newsday. She has worked at the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and Observer-Dispatch in Utica, N.Y.