Long Island's unemployment rate ticks up to 3.3% in June, 4th month in a row of increases

Long Island’s unemployment rose in June, marking the fourth month in a row the region has seen higher jobless rates over the previous year, according to state data released Tuesday.

The local economy reported a jobless rate of 3.3% last month, up 0.2 percentage points from June 2023, according to state Department of Labor data released Tuesday. Since March, the Island’s monthly unemployment rate has been higher than during the same month in 2023.

In June, Long Island’s labor force — the total of employed and unemployed residents actively job hunting — fell by 31,600 from the same month last year. Simultaneously, the number of Islanders with jobs decreased by 28,800, showing that the overwhelming majority of those who lost jobs did not continue looking for work.

The region’s share of unemployed residents grew by 2,900 year over year in June.

"This increase was driven by a relatively large decrease in the number of employed Long Islanders, most of which exited the labor force," said Shital Patel, labor market analyst with the Department of Labor’s Hicksville office.

The recent uptick in the jobless rate, like in months before, also indicates an ongoing disconnect between other economic data used to evaluate the region’s labor market.

The number of jobs on Long Island last month grew by 14,400, compared with June 2023, according to state figures released late last week. In total, the Island’s economy had nearly 1.4 million jobs, a record high going back to 1990, when the state first began tracking such data.

Patel said while growing unemployment rates are something to watch, there’s been no significant layoff activity on the Island, nor have claims for unemployment insurance shown major upticks.

"This is the one piece of data that sort of has us scratching our heads," Patel said. "The way the numbers are moving clearly aren’t good, but every other piece of data is not pointing to any kind of slowdown at the moment."

From May into June, the unemployment rate fell slightly from 3.4%, though month-to-month changes are not an accurate measure of changes in the economy as they are subject to seasonal changes, such as the start of the summer hiring season.

Following a presentation to local businesses in Riverhead on Tuesday morning, state Labor Commissioner Roberta Reardon said the increase in the unemployment rate in recent months was concerning but not cause for worry.

"Governor [Kathy] Hochul is always concerned," Reardon said. "We have long conversations about this because that is a No. 1 issue for her."

"But the thing about unemployment, it is volatile, and it is highly seasonal," Reardon added. "I would urge people not to be too alarmed. The labor market is very robust. There are definitely jobs out there for the taking."

John A. Rizzo, an economist and a Stony Brook University professor, said while declines in the labor force were "discouraging," broadly, the rise in the region’s unemployment rate was a signal that efforts to tamp down inflation were working.

"It’s consistent with what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve," Rizzo said. "It’s a necessary byproduct of getting inflation under control."

Additionally, he said the Island’s monthly unemployment rate had remained below 4%, a standard benchmark many economists refer to as full employment.

"Even though the unemployment rate has ticked up, the labor market still remains very strong and job opportunities should remain relatively abundant," Rizzo said. "Long Island is still fortunate to have such a small unemployment rate with the Fed trying to cool the economy off."