Golden Globes predictions: 'Anora,' 'The Brutalist,' 'Wicked' could be big winners

You never know what the Golden Globes are thinking — especially after a puzzling year like 2024.
Nothing seemed to go as expected for Hollywood. "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga," the sequel to a critically acclaimed, six-time Oscar-winning hit ("Mad Max: Fury Road"), sank with barely a ripple. Then again, Disney-Pixar’s "Inside Out 2” surpassed all expectations to become the year’s highest earner with $1.6 billion worldwide, according to BoxOfficeMojo.

Now, "Emilia Pérez," an ultra-arty Netflix release about a transgender Mexican cartel leader — not exactly mainstream fare — leads the Globes with 10 nominations.
All of which makes predicting the 82nd annual Golden Globes winners — to be announced tonight at the Beverly Hilton Hotel and aired at 8 p.m. on CBS and Paramount+ — a little trickier than usual.

But here goes.
The Globes will probably spread the gold around evenly, as usual. "Emilia Pérez" likely won’t win more than a couple of awards, for supporting actress (an impressive Zoe Saldaña) and best song (it’s nominated twice in that category). "The Brutalist," Brady Corbet’s three-and-a-half-hour drama about a fictional architect, might also win two, including best dramatic actor (Adrien Brody) and director. The tightest race is for best comedy/musical: Will it be "Wicked" or "Anora?" I’m guessing the latter, based mostly on the buzz around its star, Mikey Madison, a shoo-in for best comedic actress.
Elsewhere in the ceremony, Viola Davis will accept the Cecil B. DeMille Award and Ted Danson the Carol Burnett Award, both essentially lifetime achievement Globes (in film and television, respectively). And the host will be Nikki Glaser, who can’t possibly do any worse than Jo Koy, last year’s universally panned MC. That, at least, is a safe bet.

BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

"The Brutalist"
"A Complete Unknown"
"Conclave"
"Dune: Part Two"
"Nickel Boys"
"September 5”
SHOULD WIN "A Complete Unknown," James Mangold’s penetrating look at the early years of Bob Dylan. Alas, the film doesn't seem to be shaping up as a major awards contender.
WILL WIN "The Brutalist." Corbet’s 215-minute epic about a European architect is deeply flawed but nothing short of visionary, filled with emotionally wrenching scenes, rich detail and heady dialogue.

BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

"Anora"
"Challengers"
"Emilia Pérez"
"A Real Pain"
"The Substance"
"Wicked"
 SHOULD WIN "Anora." This sex-work Cinderella story (think "Pretty Woman" with a little more grit) might go all the way to the Oscars, too, where it’s a strong contender for Best Picture. It’s edgy and R-rated, but also fresh and fun.
 WILL WIN "Anora."

CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT

"Alien: Romulus"
"Beetlejuice Beetlejuice"
"Deadpool & Wolverine"
"Gladiator II"
"Inside Out 2”
"Twisters"
"Wicked"
"The Wild Robot"
SHOULD WIN "Gladiator II." It’s the perfect winner for this squishy category — an entertaining swords-and-sandals flick, yet crafted with great skill by gold-plated director Ridley Scott.
WILL WIN "Wicked." It’s too good for this award, but it also checks all the right boxes.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

Pamela Anderson, "The Last Showgirl"
Angelina Jolie, "Maria"
Nicole Kidman, "Babygirl"
Tilda Swinton, "The Room Next Door"
Fernanda Torres, "I’m Still Here"
Kate Winslet, "Lee"
SHOULD WIN Kidman, who bares her soul (and more) as a sexually frustrated CEO. It’s a terrific portrayal of a complicated character: perverse, powerful and helpless all at once.
 WILL WIN Jolie. The Globes love her — she has three wins so far — and they also love a biopic (see previous winners "Oppenheimer," "Bohemian Rhapsody," "The Revenant" and many others).

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

Adrien Brody, "The Brutalist"
Timothée Chalamet, "A Complete Unknown"
Daniel Craig, "Queer"
Colman Domingo, "Sing Sing"
Ralph Fiennes, "Conclave"
Sebastian Stan, "The Apprentice"
SHOULD WIN Brody, who uses every second of the film’s epic-length running time to explore another facet of his role — haunted, driven, furious, consumed.
 WILL WIN Brody.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Amy Adams, "Nightbitch"
Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked"
Karla Sofía Gascón, "Emilia Pérez"
Mikey Madison, "Anora"
Demi Moore, "The Substance"
Zendaya, "Challengers"
SHOULD WIN Madison. She’s absolutely marvelous as an exotic dancer who’s unashamed, unafraid and unwilling to settle. Place your bets now on Madison’s Oscar win for Best Actress.
 WILL WIN Madison.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Jesse Eisenberg, "A Real Pain"
Hugh Grant, "Heretic"
Gabriel Labelle, "Saturday Night"
Jesse Plemons, "Kinds of Kindness"
Glen Powell, "Hit Man"
Sebastian Stan, "A Different Man"
SHOULD WIN Powell. In this low-key comedy, the charismatic hunk manages a neat trick: Convincing us that he’s a socially awkward drip — who becomes a charismatic hunk. Well played!
 WILL WIN Powell, but don’t be surprised if the ever-charming Eisenberg (who is also a Best Screenplay nominee) steals this one.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Selena Gomez, "Emilia Pérez"
Ariana Grande, "Wicked"
Felicity Jones, "The Brutalist"
Margaret Qualley, "The Substance"
Isabella Rossellini, "Conclave"
Zoe Saldaña, "Emilia Pérez"
SHOULD WIN Grande. As the future good witch Glinda of Oz, she’s nothing short of a revelation — funny, heartwarming and despicable all at once. And of course, she’s got those pipes.
WILL WIN Saldaña. Another revelation! Already known as a fine actress, it turns out she can sing, dance and rap with ease.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Yura Borisov, "Anora"
Kieran Culkin, "A Real Pain"
Edward Norton, "A Complete Unknown"
Guy Pearce, "The Brutalist"
Jeremy Strong, "The Apprentice"
Denzel Washington, "Gladiator II"
 SHOULD WIN Culkin. As a troubled young drifter in Eisenberg’s comedy-drama, he’s instantly lovable — and a little frightening. This is one of the year’s best performances, period.
 WILL WIN Culkin.

BEST DIRECTOR — MOTION PICTURE

Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"
Sean Baker, "Anora"
Edward Berger, "Conclave"
Brady Corbet, "The Brutalist"
Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"
Payal Kapadia, "All We Imagine as Light"
 SHOULD WIN Corbet. "The Brutalist" is as monumental and overpowering as one of its protagonist’s architectural marvels.
 WILL WIN Corbet.

By Rafer Guzmán

rafer.guzman@newsday.com@raferguzman