Emmy Awards: 'Shōgun'? 'The Bear'? Our critic picks the winners

The Emmys have been hit these last few years by lower expectations, lower stakes and especially lower viewership (4.2 million this past January for a strike-delayed ceremony.)

So here we are again just eight months later. Forced to fake excitement already?

And yet ... there may just be a little something different for this 76th Primetime Emmy awards ceremony on Sunday (ABC/7, 8 p.m.)

Could that be genuine excitement? Comedy nominee "Hacks" is coming off its best season (ask fans — they'll corroborate). Drama series favorite "Shōgun" was a luminous tour-de-force that got post-strike Hollywood off to a bang. Every actor and actress in every major category has a chance to win, and a case could be made why each should.

Simply put, there was some great TV in 2023-24. Cause enough for excitement? Stepping out on a limb here, the answer is an unqualified "yes."

And now, stepping out on a few more limbs, here are my picks for Sunday's winners:

DRAMA

"The Crown" (Netflix)

"Fallout" (Prime Video)

"The Gilded Age" (HBO)

"The Morning Show" (Apple TV+)

"Mr. & Mrs. Smith" (Prime Video)

"Shōgun" (Hulu)

"Slow Horses" (Apple TV+)

"3 Body Problem" (Netflix)

WILL WIN "Shōgun"

 There are a handful of long-shots here — "Fallout" (too fringe), "3 Body" (too sci-fi), "Smith" (too meh) — but "The Crown" has wrapped a celebrated run, while "Morning Show" and especially "Gilded Age" are coming off improved seasons. Meanwhile, "Slow Horses" is an emerging ATV+ hit. Nevertheless, "Shōgun" stands alone, and for all the right reasons — magnificent production, great cast, sweeping epic. This is what winning dramas should be.

SHOULD WIN "Shōgun" 

From my review I wrote there's "a reverent authenticity to what's on screen" while it's "world-building on a grand scale." Any drawbacks? As I also noted, this "Shōgun" was chilly and dark, but how could an epic-scale series about the clash of cultures with a doomed love story at its core be otherwise? This is the easiest call I've made in years.

COMEDY

"Abbott Elementary" (ABC)

"The Bear" (FX on Hulu)

"Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO)

"Hacks" (Max)

"Only Murders in the Building" (Hulu)

"Palm Royale" (Apple TV+)

"Reservation Dogs" (FX on Hulu)

"What We Do in the Shadows" (FX)

 WILL WIN "The Bear"

The Emmys love repeats here, but not always. "Ted Lasso," for example, didn't make it a three-peat last year, while the preceding three ceremonies crowned first-time (and last-time) winners. But overthinking this is a waste of time (yours.) "The Bear" wins again Sunday because there's no obvious reason for it not to.

SHOULD WIN "Reservation Dogs"

"Dogs" was a coming-of-age series that (per my rave) was mostly about "coming to grips with the loss of culture and heritage, of language and history, and perhaps most grievously, the loss of ancestors, or at least their ghosts." This was a deeply felt gem about native people by native people which still managed to build a bridge to the rest of us. Its humanity — quirky, off-kilter and actually even funny — is what set "Reservation Dogs" apart. Isn't that what Emmy winners are supposed to do too?

DRAMA/ACTOR

Idris Elba, "Hijack" (Apple TV+)

Donald Glover, "Mr. & Mrs. Smith" (Prime Video)

Walton Goggins, "Fallout" (Prime Video)

Gary Oldman, "Slow Horses" (Apple TV+)

Hiroyuki Sanada, "Shōgun" (Hulu)

Dominic West, "The Crown" (Prime Video)

WILL WIN Sanada

Sanada was terrific as Lord Toranaga — one of the five regents struggling for control of 17th century Japan — but he'd also become the first Japanese actor to win a major acting award at the Emmys. Like baseball, television is an international game now, so not only is the timing right but overdue.

SHOULD WIN Oldman

Oldman gets my nod here as Jackson Lamb, the dyspeptic boss of Slough House with his savage put-downs and smoker's hack. Brilliant as always, Oldman has created a truly memorable character and a genuinely fun one too. (Fun — an all too rare trait in this somber category.)

DRAMA/ACTRESS

Jennifer Aniston, "The Morning Show" (Apple TV+)

Carrie Coon, "The Gilded Age" (HBO/Max)

Maya Erskine, "Mr. & Mrs. Smith" (Prime Video)

Anna Sawai, "Shōgun" (Hulu)

Imelda Staunton, "The Crown" (Netflix)

Reese Witherspoon, "The Morning Show" (Apple TV+)

 WILL WIN Sawai

Her stunning performance as Toda Mariko — the translator with conflicting loyalties to different cultures — should be way more than enough this Sunday.

SHOULD WIN Sawai

Yoko Shimada — who died in 2022 — also played Toda Mariko and got an Emmys nod in the original 1980 NBC mini. She lost a chance at history too, but that shouldn't happen again. This "Shōgun" shifted the focus and emotional heart away from Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis) to Mariko — smart move because Mariko  bore the full weight of this tragic clash of cultures. Other than "Shōgun" itself, I can't think of a more worthy winner.

COMEDY/ACTOR

Matt Berry, "What We Do in the Shadows" (FX)

Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO)

Steve Martin, "Only Murders in the Building" (Hulu)

Martin Short, "Only Murders in the Building" (Hulu)

Jeremy Allen White, "The Bear" (FX on Hulu)

D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, "Reservation Dogs" (FX on Hulu)

 WILL WIN White

For the moment anyway, White has — as they say on sports talk radio — the "cheat code." He knows what voters want and gave that to them again in this second season.

SHOULD WIN David

After all these years, LD deserves to walk away with something — he did create and star in one of the most consistently funny series of the entire century.

COMEDY/ACTRESS

Quinta Brunson, "Abbott Elementary" (ABC)

Ayo Edebiri, "The Bear" (FX n Hulu)

Selena Gomez, "Only Murders in the Building" (Hulu)

Maya Rudolph, "Loot" (Apple TV+)

Jean Smart, "Hacks" (HBO/Max)

Kristen Wiig, "Palm Royale" (Apple TV+)

WILL WIN Smart

This is between Brunson (last year's winner), Smart (winner in '21 and '22) and Edebiri. But Edibiri's role felt slight compared to her first season (when she was nominated in the supporting category) while voters probably think they have to give something major to "Hacks."

SHOULD WIN Rudolph

A long shot, until you actually watch Rudolph's over-the-top performance as a clueless billionaire in this eat-the-rich satire-fantasy-farce.

LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY

"Baby Reindeer" (Netflix)

"Fargo" (FX)

"Lessons in Chemistry" (Apple TV+)

"Ripley" (Netflix)

"True Detective: Night Country" (HBO/Max)

 WILL WIN "Baby Reindeer" 

This year's most competitive category features a pair of revived (and improved) franchises, a crowd pleaser ("Lessons"), and another adaptation of the Patricia Highsmith novel. But that crazy sensation from England about a stalkee (Richard Gadd) and his stalker (Jessica Gunning) takes top honors.

SHOULD WIN "Ripley" 

This eight-episode thriller directed by Steven Zaillian and starring Andrew Scott (as Ripley) ranks just below "Shogun" as year's best.

LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY/ACTOR

Matt Bomer, "Fellow Travelers" (Showtime)

Richard Gadd, "Baby Reindeer" (Netflix)

Jon Hamm, "Fargo" (FX)

Tom Hollander, "Feud: Capote vs. the Swans" (FX on Hulu)

Andrew Scott, "Ripley" (Netflix)

WILL WIN Bomer

Bomer was remarkable in "Travelers," and everyone knows it — voters above all.

SHOULD WIN Hollander

As "Tru" Capote, Hollander gave a towering performance, and a pitiless one too. But by the end, you do feel something for this fallen idol. Hollander leaves you no choice.

LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY/ACTRESS

Jodie Foster, "True Detective: Night Country" (HBO/Max)

Brie Larson, "Lessons in Chemistry" (Apple TV+)

Juno Temple, "Fargo" (FX)

Sofía Vergara, "Griselda" (Netflix)

Naomi Watts, "Feud: Capote vs. the Swans" (FX on Hulu)

WILL WIN Foster

A franchise that was left for dead returns (with corpsicles!) and a legendary actress, then scores big-time. Either those corpsicles or that actress was the reason. I'm going with the actress, and suspect Emmy voters will too.

SHOULD WIN Temple

Temple made "Fargo" watchable again — and harrowing. Her Dot Lyon — on the run from a psychopath ex (Jon Hamm, also good) — was yet another one of those unforgettable Temple performances.