'Succession?' 'The Bear?' Verne Gay picks this year's Emmy winners

The Emmys are at long last here.

Anyone out there care?

At least there are good reasons to, beyond the landmark 75th anniversary show arriving Monday (8 p.m. on Fox/5). Nominated series and stars are uniformly excellent, and the last wisp of a golden age of television that ended with “Better Call Saul” could add a touch of nostalgia.

There are exciting new shows to be honored too (“The Bear”) along with TV stars (Christina Applegate, Martin Short) who once helped define the so-called “linear TV” world, now fast receding.

But there's also a prevailing oddness to this 75th. Take for example the nominated series, or at least nominated seasons. Most haven't been seen by viewers in over a year, in some cases longer. That “Bear” nod? For the first season, which aired all the way back in the spring of 2022. “Saul” ended its six season run in August  2022, but is still up for a best drama award in 2024.

The twin strikes of 2023 (Writers Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild) obviously caused havoc by pushing this broadcast, originally scheduled for September,  into the new year, but promotion took a big hit too. Starting back in 2017, with the fast ascendance of “peak TV,” the studios ramped up the so-called “For Your Consideration” campaigns aggressively directed at the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences' 22,000 members. During the strikes, almost all of that ended. This meant voters actually had to watch their screeners and make up their minds for themselves. (Voting took place Aug. 17-28.)

What sort of impact will this have on Monday's winners? We'll all find out together.

So — strange (check), intriguing (check), messy (check), and quite possibly unpredictable (check). What's not to love?

Here are my predictions for the major categories:

COMEDY

"Abbott Elementary" (ABC) 

"Barry” (HBO)

"The Bear" (Hulu)

"Jury Duty" (Amazon Freevee)

"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" (Prime Video)

"Only Murders in the Building" (Hulu)

"Ted Lasso" (Apple TV+)

"Wednesday" (Netflix)

Is “The Bear” a comedy? (Or “Barry?” Or even “Wednesday,” in the darkest moments, and a lot of those?) Confusion breeds confusion in voters too. That's why “The Bear” probably won't walk away with a win here Monday night. “Maisel” is the dark horse, however, because its final season really was the best of the five — except voters almost never reward a show after so many years have passed. (It last won back in 2018). So that leaves you-know-who.

SHOULD WIN “Jury Duty”

What could have been a novelty (only one juror is real, the rest are actors!) instead was a seriously funny series with an excellent cast and sharp script that riffed (for the most part hilariously) on names or words like “Cody,” “Jorf” and “soaking.” And yes, in fact, this was a comedy.

WILL WIN “Ted Lasso”

Back before the 73rd awards, “Ted Lasso” got 20 nominations — the most ever for a freshman comedy — and for the sophomore season, another 20. For the third and final season, “Lasso” got 21 nods. Do we see a pattern here? We do. There's probably nothing that will unseat “Lasso” Monday night.

DRAMA

"Andor" (Disney+)

"Better Call Saul" (AMC)

"The Crown" (Netflix)

"House of the Dragon" (HBO)

"The Last of Us" (HBO) 

"Succession" (HBO)

"The White Lotus" (HBO)

"Yellowjackets" (Showtime)

While this is the most competitive of this year's Emmy categories, the outcome is not remotely in doubt. But let's break all this down anyway. “Andor” had maybe the best season of any Disney+ series to date; “The Crown” (Elizabeth Debicki debuted as Princess Diana) was stellar; after a slow start, “House of the Dragon” eventually reaffirmed fans (and HBO's) faith; “The Last of Us” was the most fan-celebrated TV series of the year; “Yellowjackets,” meanwhile, built its fan base and got even deeper performances from its cast (Melanie Lynskey got a second straight best actress nod); “The White Lotus” had a stunning finale; and “Better Call Saul” ended with its strongest season of six. Any of these could win. Maybe all of them should.

SHOULD WIN “Succession”

“Saul” has 53 Emmy nods over six seasons, but not a single win. Does anybody really believe its first win (ever) will be for this category? Instead, “Succession” ends with this final validation, as if any more was needed. The show won this in 2020, 2022, and now … 2024.

WILL WIN “Succession”

Sorry, “Saul.” I loved thee well too but this is deserved.

LIMITED SERIES

"Beef" (Netflix)

"Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story" (Netflix)

"Daisy Jones & the Six" (Prime Video)

"Fleishman Is in Trouble" (Hulu)

"Obi-Wan Kenobi" (Disney+)

Speaking of scrambled categories, the so-called “limited” one (with the exception of one show) reflected a particularly weak crop in 2022-23. “The White Lotus,” which won this last year was punted over to drama, most likely because it's no longer “limited” but ongoing. (But who knows why exactly.) There is however one overwhelming fave here.

SHOULD WIN “Beef”

“Beef” — the title relating not to a side of prime rib, but to a road rage incident that threaded all 10 episodes — is so dominant in this category that you almost wonder whether it will lose any of its 13 nods. (“Dahmer” got 13 nods, too, but there is the question of that subject matter.)

WILL WIN "Beef"

Along with “Lasso,” “Beef” is this year's surest of bets, while co-stars Ali Wong and Steven Yuen (both nominated for best actress and actor) are as well.

COMEDY/ACTOR

Bill Hader, “Barry” (HBO)

Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)

Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”(Hulu)

Jason Sudeikis “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (Hulu)

One of the notable oddities of the 75th is buried here. That would be Martin Short — yet no Steve Martin? (What? Or why?) Otherwise, this feels like a fairly obvious category with an obvious outcome, although it would admittedly be nice to see Segel upset the whole field by winning his first (and only) Emmy nomination.

SHOULD WIN White. But again, was this a comic performance (hardly) or a dramatic one? Sure, he's been excellent both seasons, but this still doesn't feel like a fair matchup. It feels more like a misguided one.

WILL WIN Sudeikis. Emmys tend to celebrate the stars of final seasons of beloved series, or at least those ones they've celebrated so relentlessly before.

COMEDY/ACTRESS

Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me” (Netflix) `

Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)

Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

Natasha Lyonne,"Poker Face” (Peacock)

Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday” (Netflix)

Again, one more strong category with no obvious winner, until you dig just a little deeper …

SHOULD WIN

Brunson. I would have said Ortega here, in part because of her performance and the fact that she is only the third Latina in TV history to be nominated for this award. (The last time was 2007 when America Ferrara won for “Ugly Betty.”) Nevertheless, Ortega made some blunt (or impolitic) observations on a podcast last March about her time on the “Wednesday'' set including how she changed writers' lines. Those writers have long memories, and a lot of them do vote.

WILL WIN

Brunson. How many seasons does it take for an actress like Brunson to prove that she's both talented and deserving of a best actress win? She's been passed over for this honor before; let's hope the hidebound Emmys don't get in the habit of passing her by one more time.

DRAMA/ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man” (FX)

Brian Cox, “Succession” (HBO)

Kieran Culkin,"Succession” (HBO) 

Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul” (AMC)

Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (HBO)

Jeremy Strong, “Succession” (HBO)

At last, the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards category with the mostest — the most big names, most celebrated performances, most actors from the same show.

SHOULD WIN 

Brian Cox. The best way to explain this logic is with a thought experiment: What would “Succession” have been without Cox's Logan Roy? (Or, “The Sopranos'' without James Gandolfini?) Everything revolved around him, including the title, and Cox alone found the requisite power and glory in the smallest of moments, the flintiest of phrases. Logan was a monster but also necessary evil, and without him — or that singular performance — the whole series would have taken on a different, or diminished, meaning. Please, he deserves this one, after two straight whiffs by the voters.

WILL WIN 

Pascal. I like the idea of an upset here, if only because the TV Academy of Arts & Sciences likes to prove it can actually think for itself now and then. The last Latino actor to win was in 1999 (Jimmy Smits, “NYPD Blue.”) That's 25 years ago and the Emmys are long overdue for a repeat.

DRAMA/ACTRESS

Sharon Horgan,"Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)

Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)

Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid's Tale” (Hulu)

Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us” (HBO)

Keri Russell,” The Diplomat” (Netflix)

Sarah Snook, “Succession” (HBO)

No Imelda Staunton (“The Crown'') or Helen Mirren (“1923”)? As such, this is your strangest category in a strange year, but certainly not without its intrigues either. For example, Snook joined this group after two straight (unsuccessful) runs in the less prestigious outstanding supporting actress one.

SHOULD WIN

Snook. In fact, there's some more shady Emmy logic here, or maybe just shades of sexism. Why should SHE not have been in this category all along when her co-cast members were, like Cox and Strong? She had a remarkable final season, and deserves this win — richly.

WILL WIN

Russell. After all those seasons on “The Americans” (and three straight nominations), the Emmys will attempt to make restitution.