Emmys 2022 predictions: Who will win, should win

The 74th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards arrive Monday (8 p.m., NBC/4), after wrestling with these (please excuse the term) existential TV puzzles: Who will win? Who will lose? Is it humanly possible to figure out a "winner" (or "loser")? 

Overwhelmed by shows and categories, the overburdened Emmy voter — much like the rest of us — now relies mostly on word-of-mouth, marketing gimmicks and buzz. Show/star familiarity is also rewarded, and so are repeat winners (and nominees).

Consequently, nominations tend to be deja-vu-all-over-again, which has hurt the ratings (a record low in 2020 but a smidgen higher in '21) and fan engagement. Indeed, as a functioning body consigned to establish the best and the brightest, the Television Academy is on the verge of a breakdown, if not already irrevocably broken. 

The sheer numbers explain the crisis. There were 559 scripted series in 2021, or almost exactly double the number 10 years ago. Before settling on the final nominations this year, the Emmy voters had to sort through 171 drama submissions, 118 comedies, and 61 limited series.

Is that even humanly possible? As a fellow human, what do you think? 

So, if your favorite show (or actor) gets overlooked Monday or was already snubbed, blame the system, not the voter. Like you, they're only human after all. 

Meanwhile, here are my annual guesses about who will win and should win, plus this little caveat: Yup, I'm overwhelmed, too.

ACTOR/DRAMA

Jason Bateman ("Ozark")

Brian Cox ("Succession")

Lee Jung-jae ("Squid Game")

Bob Odenkirk ("Better Call Saul")

Adam Scott ("Severance")

Jeremy Strong ("Succession") 

WHO WILL WIN Strong

WHO SHOULD WIN Cox

Cox, Bateman and Strong last appeared together in this category in the 72nd Emmys, and the outcome Monday should be the same. Strong's submitted episode ("Too Much Birthday") was particularly memorable, which should make all the difference here — a shame, because overlooking Cox (again) seems perversely wrong. Without him, "Succession" would be a different show, or a lesser one. Meanwhile, Lee Jung-jae would be both a surprise (a good one) and history-making. Let's call him this category's dark horse.

ACTRESS/DRAMA

Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve")

Laura Linney ("Ozark")

Melanie Lynskey ("Yellowjackets")

Sandra Oh ("Killing Eve")

Reese Witherspoon ("The Morning Show")

Zendaya ("Euphoria")

WILL WIN Zendaya

SHOULD WIN Linney

 After four good seasons, wouldn't it be nice to see "Ozark'' close out its run with this major (and deserved) win? Nevertheless, the actress/drama category seems to me clearest evidence of an overwhelmed Emmy voting body. Of the hundreds of performances last season, the voters essentially copied down the names on their 2020 ballots. Lynskey is the obvious exception, and might even be the front-runner if her episode submission ("Doomcoming," in which her character Shauna kills her lover) wasn't so disappointing. Thus, so daring a couple of years ago, Zendaya now actually feels like the safe choice — and no other major category of the 74th Emmys feels quite as "safe" as this one.

ACTOR/COMEDY

Donald Glover ("Atlanta")

Bill Hader ("Barry")

Nicholas Hoult ("The Great")

Steve Martin ("Only Murders in the Building")

Martin Short ("Only Murders in the Building")

Jason Sudeikis ("Ted Lasso") 

WILL WIN Sudeikis

SHOULD WIN Short

 There are three prior winners in this group, so no need to feel sorry for the one passed over — except that Sudeikis most likely will not be. Hoult — fine, by the way, in a series that almost no one has ever seen — would be one of those "nice surprises." And while it seems perverse to choose either Martin or Short as the other nice surprise, let's go with Short anyway.

ACTRESS/COMEDY

Rachel Brosnahan ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

Quinta Brunson ("Abbott Elementary")

Kaley Cuoco ("The Flight Attendant")

Elle Fanning ("The Great")

Issa Rae ("Insecure")

Jean Smart ("Hacks")

WILL WIN Cuoco

SHOULD WIN Cuoco

If Emmy voters actually watched the nominated episode they were assigned, then it's Cuoco in a walk. (In "Drowning Women," her character, Cassie, falls hard off the wagon). And yes, Smart could repeat because her episode ("The Click '') was almost that good too. Brunson, meanwhile, is in the awkward position of being the popular favorite in a ceremony that perversely tends to spurn popularity. Moreover, her show is a traditional network sitcom competing in a genre — at least as far as the Emmys are concerned — that can no longer decide what a "comedy" even is. (But a "sitcom?" Sooo last century.)

COMEDY

"Abbott Elementary" (ABC)

"Barry" (HBO)

"Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO)

 "Hacks" (HBO Max)

"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" (Prime Video)

"Only Murders in the Building" (Hulu)

"Ted Lasso" (Apple TV+)

"What We Do in the Shadows" (FX)

WILL WIN "Ted Lasso"

SHOULD WIN "Only Murders in the Building" 

 As I seem to write (wearily) every year, never underestimate the Emmys' capacity for doing what is expected. That's why "Lasso" most likely walks away with its second consecutive win. Welcome surprises can still happen — "Abbott" or "OMITB," even "What We Do in the Shadows" — but just don't bet on them. 

LIMITED SERIES

"Dopesick" (Hulu)

"The Dropout" (Hulu)

 "Inventing Anna" (Netflix)

 "Pam & Tommy" (Hulu)

 "The White Lotus" (HBO)

WILL WIN "Dopesick"

SHOULD WIN "The Dropout." 

"Dopesick" has the big edge because it's one of those series that pointedly reminds the Academy that what it does is actually important, A smart, well-conceived (by Danny Strong) drama about the opioid crisis should be can't-miss. Add Michael Keaton (who will also win Monday) to the mix and it's won't-miss. While I'd like to see "Dropout" win, at least Amanda Seyfried (who played Elizabeth Holmes) will win for best actress in this category.

DRAMA

"Better Call Saul" (AMC)

"Euphoria" (HBO)

"Ozark" (Netflix)

"Severance" (Apple TV)

"Squid Game" (Netflix)

"Stranger Things" (Netflix)

"Succession" (HBO)

"Yellowjackets" (Showtime) 

WILL WIN "Better Call Saul"

SHOULD WIN "Better Call Saul" 

 Finally, the most intriguing category of them all, where the very soul of the TV Academy seems almost at stake. Will epic buzz carry the day (although "Euphoria" does seem a little less buzzy)? Will vast popularity, abetted by prodigious violence ("Squid Game")? The dystopic (times two) "Yellowjackets?" Surely "Severance" matches the national mood, or at least proves why working from home beats the office? How about "Ozark?" (Bateman did get a Golden Globe for his acting work but who wants one of those anymore?)  Will "Stranger Things" pull off an upset? (Stranger things have happened.) That leaves "Succession" and "Saul." The smart money has "Succession," but the rest of us have "Saul." Six seasons, 48 Emmy nods and exactly zero wins. Wouldn't it be glorious if the first win was this one?