East End towns show tiny population gains, census figures say, but declines persist in Long Island towns, cities overall

Three East End towns posted tiny population gains, while a majority of Long Island's towns and villages, as well as its two cities, persisted in the Island's overall population decline by registering small decreases, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau release of 2023 population estimates.

The findings led one planning expert — whose organization has conducted studies across the tristate region — to echo others who have said limited housing options, particularly on Long Island, and high housing costs regionwide are key factors behind the decline.

Long Island's share of affordable housing in the region is alarmingly low, experts said, which has an impact on population trends now and potentially in the future. 

“In our region, it seems to start with housing,” said Marcel Negret, senior planner with the Regional Plan Association, an independent nonprofit civic organization focused on the tristate region. The RPA has released two recent studies that look at the economic impact of housing development, or the lack of it, and its impact on population trends.

“If housing is not affordable, it's a problem for many to decide [whether] to come to the region or stay within it,” Negret said.

The decline has an impact on the region's economic prospects because it “affects the viability of employers to attract employees and may make them consider other locations in other states,” he said.

A September RPA report said “housing production in Long Island was not only significantly lower when compared to the rest of the region, but it also saw the greatest reduction in its share over time.

“Between 1997 and 2009 [on] Long Island — which at the time represented 13% of the region's population … [there were permits for] 62,000 units, or 8.4% of the region's total. From 2010-2022, production on Long Island shrank to just 27,000, representing a regional share of only 4%,” the report said.

Long Island's population decline runs counter to the population increases in larger cities in the Northeast and Midwest.

Nationwide, the bureau said in a statement, those cities had population increases “reversing earlier population declines. Cities with populations of 50,000 or more grew by an average of 0.2% in the Northeast and 0.1% in the Midwest after declining an average of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.”

The bureau added that “Cities in the South grew the fastest — by an average of 1.0%.”

New York City remained the nation's largest city, with almost 8.3 million people in July 2023, followed by Los Angeles, California, with nearly 4 million people.

On Long Island, East Hampton, Shelter Island and Southampton towns showed very small gains between July 2022 and July 2023, according to data from the Vintage 2023 Population Estimates released by the Census Bureau on Thursday.

East Hampton's population increased by 121 people, or 0.42%, for a total population in 2023 of 28,764. Shelter Island's population grew by 13 people, or 0.40%, for a total population of 3,292 people. Southampton's population increased by 163 people, or 0.23%, for a total population of 69,696, according to the estimates.

The Island's other 10 towns saw declines. Those with the largest population dips were Babylon and Islip, both posting losses of 0.46%, followed by Riverhead, with a 0.45% loss in population, and Smithtown, with a 0.40% drop.

According to the estimates, Babylon's population dropped by 1,000 people in 2023 for a total population of 217,046; Islip lost 1,564 people for a total population of 336,822; and Riverhead was down by 162 people, for a population estimate of 35,723.

Among villages and cities with populations greater than 10,000 people, the top five localities with the largest declines were the city of Glen Cove (0.52%) and the villages of Lindenhurst (0.49%), Babylon (0.48%), New Hyde Park (0.44%) and Freeport, which lost 0.43% of its population between 2022 and 2023.

The population estimates of towns, cities and villages follow the release in March of county population estimates. Nassau County lost 0.26% of its population, or 3,579 people, between July 2022 and July 2023, and Suffolk County lost 0.31%, or 4,804 people, during that period. Officials noted the declines were smaller between 2022 and 2023 than earlier years. Nassau's 2023 population estimate was 1,381,715. Suffolk's was 1,523,170.

John D. Cameron, chairman of the Long Island Regional Planning Council, said the Island needs a “diversity in housing options.” 

“For young people, we don’t have sufficient apartments here to have some competition to have affordable rental rates,” Cameron said, adding that apartments near transit hubs, in downtown areas, and transitional housing, defined as smaller owned homes on smaller plots of land, could create more affordable housing opportunities. “We also need options so seniors can downsize … put their homes in play so there’s competition.”

Negret said the RPA report released earlier this month looked at the future impact of the “housing undersupply” in the tristate area and showed, if current trends continue, “the region may face a housing gap of 920,000 units by 2035. The analysis also highlights a current shortage of 540,000 housing units in the region.”