Job market for college grads marked by  tariff uncertainty, AI concerns, experts say

It’s no party graduating from college into this job market.

But don’t tell that to Abby-Gaëlle Sylvestre.

The Stony Brook University senior, who will graduate with her class on Friday, has applied for more than 50 positions in marketing and finance. While she has yet to land a full-time job, the business management major isn't sitting still: She and her big sister Kimberly, 32, launched an event planning and decoration business in April.

The company, Jeanine’s Beauty Décor, has already provided festive decorations for several baby showers and booked an engagement celebration and two upcoming graduation parties, Sylvestre, 21, said.

“Just because there’s a lack of opportunities, doesn’t mean you can’t create new ones," she said.

As colleges and universities across Long Island celebrate their commencements this month, Sylvestre is not the only new grad looking for creative ways to cope with a tough job market. With some employers hitting the brakes on hiring due to uncertainty about the economic impact of tariffs, and with speculation rampant about the effect of artificial intelligence on entry-level jobs, career counselors and employment experts say this year’s graduating seniors have their work cut out for them.

Employers have scaled back their hiring plans since the fall, according to research by the National Association of Colleges and Employers, or NACE. The group’s latest survey, conducted in February and March, showed that hiring was expected to tick up by about 0.6% compared with last year. That’s a stark change from the fall, when employers had expected that hiring would increase by 7.3%.

Many new graduates search for jobs on a site called Handshake, which describes itself as a social network where early-career candidates can find jobs. Listings on the platform have fallen by 15% this year, while the number of job seekers is up by 30%, a report by Handshake shows.

There is "a heightened sense of pessimism" among students, especially computer science majors who are concerned about a decline in tech job postings and the "growing impact" of artificial intelligence on the job market, Randy Tarnowski, director of research at Handshake, said in an email. 

That pessimism is prompting students to apply for more jobs, with the typical graduate applying for 21% more jobs this year than graduates did last year, Tarnowski said.

“We're in an economy now that has moved from a candidates’ market to an employer market,” said Kimberly Dixon, director of employer engagement and diversity recruitment at Stony Brook. With layoffs hitting tech and other industries, she said, new graduates “may be competing with folks who have more experience even for those entry-level roles.”

As a result, she said, “We're sort of in a waiting game for some opportunities.” By fall, she predicted, “Employers will know a little bit more about where they're landing, what their hiring needs are.”

Hiring strong in some industries

It should be noted that the employment outlook varies dramatically by industry.

The latest NACE survey showed that hiring for finance, insurance and real estate jobs was expected to dip by about 1%, while computer and electronics manufacturing companies predicted hiring would decline by 26% compared with last year.

By contrast, in management consulting and wholesale trade, hiring was expected to jump by about 23% and 30%, respectively, while hiring in accounting was on track to rise by 11%, the NACE report found.

Employers’ hiring plans are “a little bit lower than what was initially projected last fall, but still strong overall,” said Janet Lenaghan, dean of the Frank G. Zarb School of Business at Hofstra University in Hempstead. Plus, she said, “If things change, let's say, for example, with the tariffs and the impact isn't quite as bad as initially feared, you'll start to see more hiring.”

Matthew Mandolese, 23, a Hofstra accounting major, has been fortunate: He will be a tax consultant with a hedge fund team at the consulting firm Deloitte, a job he landed after his summer internship with the team last year, he said.

The firm was his “No. 1 choice,” he said. The internship offered insights into “the dynamics of your team, like how they operate, how they communicate, and you're able to see if you align with that culture,” Mandolese said.

Hiring has been strong in nursing, education and state government as well as in certain business sectors, said Thomas Ward, Jr., assistant vice president for career development and strategic partnerships at Adelphi University in Garden City. With some longtime workers retiring, he said, “They're looking for new talent there, with some innovative ideas.”

A recent “career readiness boot camp” at Adelphi drew about 150 students for interview preparation, resume and social media review and a panel discussion about the effect of AI on entry-level hiring, Ward said.

The impact of AI “can cause fear” for students, he said. But the consensus seems to be that while it is likely to replace some jobs, it will lead to other, “higher-level” jobs that require critical thinking, he said.

It can also help in the job search. Elena Lawrence, 22, a marketing major at Hofstra, has been making use of the university’s job search resources, including a computer program that uses virtual reality headsets and artificial intelligence to let students do simulated job interviews.

Practicing the answers to typical interview questions — and doing it often enough that it starts to feel more natural — “really calms the nerves,” she said.

Tina Lin, 21, who is double majoring in psychology and mass communications at Stony Brook and recently did an internship with a software company, compared AI to any other new technology that eliminates some jobs and creates others.

Even though AI can crunch data quickly, she said, “Of course we need someone to manage the analytics.”

Still, with hiring down in the tech industry, some technology majors are seeking employment in other fields, such as health care, education, nonprofits and government, “doing the same type of job, but in a different industry,” said Amy Bravo, senior director of career success and experiential education at New York Institute of Technology.

A trickier problem is facing some international students who can only remain in the United States if they land jobs that allow them to work legally, Bravo said. Some employers are holding off on hiring international students, perhaps because of new federal policies on immigration, she said.

“Those students, especially if they're in some of these competitive fields, they're really having a hard time,” she said.

Sylvestre, the Stony Brook senior who started her own event planning business, said in her case, the challenges in the employment market may have an upside.

“I told my sister, like, by next year, if I do this correctly, we should be making money that we could be comfortable off of,” Sylvestre said. That could even mean, she said, not “having to worry about looking for jobs in the job market.”

By Maura McDermott

maura.mcdermott@newsday.commauramcdermott

Maura McDermott covers education. Since joining Newsday in 2012, she also has worked on the investigations team and covered real estate and the business of health care.