Record highs forecast for Long Island; state issues wildfire alert

One day after setting a record-high temperature, Long Island could see another record-setting day Tuesday, the National Weather Service said.

The lack of rain in recent weeks has also caused authorities to be on alert for wildfires.

Tuesday's forecast calls for a high of 78 and could push toward 80 in some areas.

This continues a roller-coaster trend for Nassau and Suffolk, which two months ago saw record rains that caused flash flooding in some areas, followed by record-low precipitation since then. October has had not only a record-high temperature but two overnight lows in the 30s.

The record high for Oct. 22 at Islip was 77 degrees, recorded in 1979, a mark that could be in jeopardy Tuesday.

On Monday, the weather service said Islip recorded a high of 77 degrees, breaking the mark of 76 degrees recorded for the date in 2017.

Last week, Islip recorded overnight lows of 39 degrees, on Oct. 16 and 17. The all-time lows for those dates were 33 degrees in 1978 and 34 degrees in 1965.

So far, October is shaping up to be the driest one on record at Islip, with just 0.10 inches of precipitation recorded so far. The record low precipitation for the month is 0.18 inches in 2000.

The weather service said there's a 20% chance of showers overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, which evaluates drought conditions throughout the United States, has rated Long Island as "DO," or abnormally dry for more than a week now.

Officials at the drought center at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln note that this is the lowest level on their drought-indicator charts and just above normal.

On the heels of the flash-flooding barrage in August that saw more than 9 inches of rain deluge some Suffolk north shore communities, Long Island saw well below-average rainfall in September, recording just 0.24 inches of precipitation compared to the norm of 3.6 inches.

The weather service notes that since the start of September, Nassau and Suffolk have seen just a handful of days with any kind of precipitation and no rainfall in Islip since Oct. 7.

The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation said the lack of rainfall since the start of September has inched Long Island and the New York metro area toward an elevated risk of wildfires.

Though that risk is now considered high it remains well below the highest risk, which would be a "Red Flag" warning. Still, the DEC noted on its website the current level means: "All fine dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended brush and campfires are likely to escape.

"Fires spread rapidly ... High-intensity burning may develop on slopes or in concentrations of fine fuels. Fire may become serious and their control difficult unless they are attacked successfully while small."

Temperatures are expected to drop later in the week and, forecasters said, frost is possible for interior locations in Nassau and Suffolk beginning Thursday.

By John Valenti

john.valenti@newsday.com

John Valenti, a reporter at Newsday since 1981, has been honored nationally by the Associated Press and Society of the Silurians for investigative, enterprise and breaking news reporting, as well as column writing, and is the author of “Swee'pea,” a book about former New York playground basketball star Lloyd Daniels. Valenti is featured in the Emmy Award-winning ESPN 30-for-30 film “Big Shot.”