How Long Island voted: Trump flips Democratic strongholds in garnering 53% of vote

Donald Trump flipped numerous Democratic strongholds on Long Island on his way to taking a decisive majority of local voters for the first time in his three presidential campaigns, according to a Newsday analysis of unofficial results.

From the City of Glen Cove to the Town of Babylon and down to hamlets spanning from Middle Island to Manhasset, the Republican president-elect repainted the region red in a way that political leaders and analysts said was surprisingly emphatic, if not surprising in the end result.

More than 53% of voters in Nassau and Suffolk cast their ballots for Trump. His raw vote total in the two counties — both of which he carried comfortably — has increased each time he has run: from 642,595 in 2016 to 707,969 in 2020 and now more than 762,000 this year, records show.

He won Suffolk for the third consecutive election and captured Nassau for the first time, becoming the first Republican to win there since 1988.

To reach those heights, Trump nearly swept the Island’s 11 towns and cities west of Southold and the Hamptons in unofficial results.

"The results on Long Island are part of a larger pattern across greater New York and New Jersey, where over a couple of elections we’ve seen a pronounced pro-Republican shift in formerly strong Democratic areas," said David Hopkins, a Boston College political science professor who studies races in the Northeast.

"This geographic trend reflects the growing strength of the Republican Party among white and Hispanic voters without college degrees," Hopkins said.

How Long Island voted for president

Scan the map or use the search tool to look up the unofficial results of the 2024 presidential race for each of the Island's election districts.

Some districts are colored gray because there was a tie or zero votes were reported for those precincts. The latter is likely due to the votes being assigned to other precincts, which is not an uncommon practice for smaller precincts.

Where the vote turned

In Nassau, Trump narrowly beat Vice President Kamala Harris in the towns of Hempstead and North Hempstead and the City of Glen Cove. He routed her in Oyster Bay, long controlled by the GOP, running up 58% of the vote.

Harris only took the City of Long Beach.

In Suffolk, Trump turned Huntington and Babylon from towns that went for President Joe Biden in 2020. He won comfortably in Islip, Brookhaven and Smithtown, garnering between 57% and 64% of the votes in those typically Republican areas.

Harris' only Suffolk victories came in Southold on the North Fork and Southampton, East Hampton and Shelter Island towns, mirroring the national trend of Democrats making gains among the educated and affluent.

Blue-collar voters, among all demographics, made their preference clear, said local political leaders in both parties, blaming the Biden/Harris administration for an economy that saw decades-high inflation.

As was the case in the swing states Trump brought back into his column, a negative view of the economy seemed to outweigh any arguments against the controversial Republican regaining power, the officials said.

"Clearly his message resonated across all parties and constituencies in Suffolk County," said Suffolk Democratic chairman Rich Schaffer, also the Babylon Town supervisor.

Babylon, though controlled on the local level by Democrats for decades, was a prime example, with clusters of election districts in Deer Park and Babylon Village flipping Republican for the first time in recent memory.

"I was only surprised by the strength of Trump’s victory, not the victory," Schaffer said.

'Better job of listening'

Up until three years ago, Glen Cove hadn't had a Republican mayor in nearly 30 years. The city, which has one of Nassau's largest Latino populations, now also has voted for a Republican president.

Trump won Glen Cove with 51.3% of the vote, including flipping five successive election districts in the heart of the city. One went from 59% Biden to 51% Trump, records show.

Third District Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) said numerous people sent him photos of their ballots last week showing a vote for him and Trump.

"I think the Democrats have got to do a better job of listening to the people and speaking to them in common sense terms on the issues they care about," said Suozzi, known as one of his party’s more moderate members. "Instead of asking, ‘How could they vote for him?’ I think they have to ask the question ‘Why did they vote for him?’ "

Trump also turned red areas of Suffolk as different as Northport and Middle Island.

In addition, Suffolk GOP chairman Jesse Garcia said there was a "softening" in majority-Hispanic areas such as Central Islip and Brentwood that Harris still carried. Republicans, he said, appealed to those voters’ more conservative and faith-based values.

"Suffolk County is the largest county in the country to have gone for Donald Trump in three successive elections," Garcia said.

In Nassau, shifts were also apparent in communities with large Jewish populations, including in and around Great Neck. While Republicans have had success there in every election since 2021, Biden still took numerous election districts there in 2020, especially in Kensington and Great Neck Gardens.

This year, Trump took nearly all of them. In the process, he carried GOP challenger Daniel Norber to victory over Democratic Assemb. Gina Sillitti, with Norber becoming the first Republican to win the seat in 50 years, officials said.

Not exclusive to the suburbs 

"Nassau is reflective of how the country felt," said Nassau GOP chairman Joseph Cairo, citing inflation and immigration issues as overall drivers and support for Israel as a particular driver in North Hempstead.

Shawn Donahue, a University at Buffalo political science professor, said Trump’s strength on Long Island, particularly in Nassau, could be attributed to increased support from Jewish Americans, including those who have traditionally voted Democratic.

Overall, however, he noted the region was not unique.

In some preliminary analyses, Donahue said, it appears that most counties nationwide, including those with the largest cities, shifted at least somewhat toward Republicans between 2020 and 2024.

"It’s not anything that’s exclusive to the suburbs," he said.

Lawrence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, said Long Island, despite having more enrolled Democrats, has been leaning Republican since 2021, following an outcry over crime and the failing economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

More unaffiliated voters have been turning to the GOP in recent years, and this election result may have also been impacted by lower turnout from the Democratic base, Levy said.

The question now, he added, is if the local Republican gains will survive Trump once he is gone.

"Can they energize the MAGA base to the extent that they have been?" Levy said.