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Patrons dine at Gallo Columbian Restaurant in Patchogue on Jan. 22, 2022....

Patrons dine at Gallo Columbian Restaurant in Patchogue on Jan. 22, 2022. The eatery is among many on Main Street. Credit: Newsday/Steve Pfost

Several Long Island village and town officials are skeptical of recent population estimates showing declines in residents of Freeport, Patchogue and a handful of other municipalities.

They point to few vacant properties and progress in building multifamily units as a retort to the 2022 estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday.

"I think it's an underestimate," Patchogue Mayor Paul Pontieri said, of the bureau's estimates that put the village's population at 12,344 last year, 59 people fewer than its 2021 estimate. He noted the village saw a population gain between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, going from 11,798 to 12,408.

Pontieri, the village's mayor for 19 years, said nearly 700 multifamily units — condos, co-ops and town houses — had been built since the mid-2000s. The village had grown more vibrant as young families moved in, and 30 to 35 restaurants now dot Main Street, he said.

WHAT TO KNOW

  • All but three of Long Island 13 towns and a majority of the Island’s villages showed population declines, based on the 2022 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Several local leaders were skeptical of the accuracy of the estimates, and several pointed to low housing unit vacancy rates and the creation of housing developments, including multifamily units, in their municipalities.
  • The population estimates are derived, in part, by using as a base the population per housing unit from the 2020 Census, as well as group quarters counts.
  • The pandemic challenged the Census Bureau's ability to count people living in "group quarters," such as student dormitories, prisons and nursing homes, during the 2020 census, according to a Cornell University researcher.

A researcher says the culprit in the difference between what local officials perceive and the estimates may be due to challenges in the Census Bureau's ability to count certain people living in congregate settings during the pandemic.

Group living skews numbers

Jan Vink, a researcher with Cornell University's Program on Applied Demographics, told Newsday that people living in "group quarters," such as student dormitories, prisons and nursing homes, could have adversely impacted local population estimates.

Vink said, "If you see some weird patterns in the population, then group quarters are probably to blame."

At the county level, the bureau's population estimates, released in March, showed Nassau and Suffolk counties lost just over 15,000 people between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022. The population estimates released last week don't change the overall county numbers, but instead show how the county population estimates are distributed among the towns and villages.

John McNally, spokesman for the city of Long Beach, said officials were skeptical of the estimates' accuracy. According to the estimates, Long Beach's 2022 population was 34,604, a decline of 160 people from the year before.

McNally said Long Beach had upward of 500 multifamily units coming online within the next 18 months and did not have a significant vacancy rate.

Although affordability remains a concern, McNally said, "we're more concerned about managing growth" than the loss of population.

Officials don't see a decrease

Floral Park Mayor Kevin Fitzgerald didn't agree with the 2022 estimates for his village — 15,925, 139 fewer than in 2021. The village had the highest percent decrease in population, at 0.87%, of villages with populations of 10,000 or more.

Fitzgerald said a drop of 139 people was not significant, given the size of the village's population. In any event, he added, the village was on the path toward growth. He touted its short commute to Manhattan, the village's schools, and recreational facilities.

"Young people and families are still coming to Floral Park to buy homes, and live, and raise their children," he said.

Similarly, Freeport's mayor doesn't see a decrease.

"I would attest that that number is inaccurate based on the property sales" and "availability of property in Freeport," said Mayor Robert Kennedy.

Nearly 700 multifamily units — condos, co-ops and town houses...

Nearly 700 multifamily units — condos, co-ops and town houses — have been built since the mid-2000s in Patchogue, according to the village mayor. The 291-unit New Village at Patchogue development opened in June 2014. Credit: Newsday/John Paraskevas

According to the estimates, Freeport had a 0.78% decline in population in 2022, with 43,886 people, or 346 fewer than in 2021.

Kennedy said Freeport had at least 300 apartments under construction, and added that taxes were stable with few vacancies.

But there's no denying that the Island's high cost of living and its impact on population losses remain a concern.

"It's no surprise that New Yorkers are fleeing our state thanks to crushing taxes, rising crime, and threats to our suburban quality of life," Oyster Bay Town Supervisor Joseph Saladino said in a statement.

Saladino, alluding to those who say the Island needs to develop housing options beyond single-family homes, added: "While some like to point to housing, the fact remains that our housing stock grows each year, we have hundreds of new residential units on the way, and the Town Board has cut and kept town property taxes flat since 2018 to ensure our community is an affordable place to live and raise a family."

East End towns see gains

Southold was one of three East End towns that saw population gains, albeit small ones. According to the estimates, Southold gained 63 people between 2021 and 2022, for an estimated population of 23,912.

Town Supervisor Scott Russell said the population was difficult to track because of the town's sizable seasonal population. Although the estimates show a slight increase, he said, the year-round resident population has dropped, which could be seen in school enrollments.

The town has seen several people moving there from New York City during the pandemic, many of them high earners.

Tourism brings jobs, he said, though many are low-paying. And, like other places on Long Island, affordability in housing is an issue.

“It's not even just the price of rents, it's the lack of access [to rentals],” Russell said. 

Jay Schneiderman, supervisor of Southampton Town, which had a 160-person gain for an estimated total 69,490 in 2022, a 0.23% gain between 2021 and 2022, said it was “relatively minor” gain.

Still, he said two affordable apartment complexes in Speonk and Southampton Village, totaling 66 units in all, could be the reason for the bulk of the town’s population increase, “assuming two people per apartment.”

“We are creating affordable housing, though it’s not enough,” he said.

The town is a “great place” to live, Schneiderman said, providing “a tremendous amount of recreational opportunities, a relatively laid-back lifestyle.”

But for many low-wage workers in the Hamptons, “you’re unlikely to be able to buy a home."

With Arielle Martinez

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