Why Joe Biden likely will stay the nominee after rocky presidential debate

WASHINGTON — After President Joe Biden’s stumbling performance in Thursday’s debate with Donald Trump, many panicking Democrats called for him to be replaced as their party’s nominee.

New York State Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs on Friday said that won’t be easy unless Biden steps aside. And on Friday, Biden made clear during a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, that he will not withdraw from the race.

“I don’t debate as well as I used to,” Biden said, but added, “I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. And I know like millions of Americans know — when you get knocked down, you get back up.”

There is no easy path to removing Biden from the ballot, said Jacobs, who's also the chairman of the Nassau County Democratic Party.

“I want everybody to understand is that people who are saying, 'Well, the party should change the nominee' and all the rest of it: That is not in the capacity of Democratic leaders,” Jacobs told Newsday.

“We cannot do that unless Joe Biden decides to release his delegates,” he said. “All of his delegates are obligated by the rules of the [Democratic National Committee] to vote for him on the first ballot, and that will end the case.”

Biden has resisted pressure to drop out of the race, including calls from some major news media editorial boards across the country.

Will delegates rebel?

Democratic delegates will vote online for their nominee before Aug. 7 — nearly two weeks before the Democratic convention begins on Aug. 19 — because Ohio ruled that to be on its ballot, candidates must be formally nominated at least 90 days before Election Day.

Democratic leaders have not yet set a date for that vote. 

DNC rules do offer wiggle room for delegates seeking to replace Biden: “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

But a movement to ditch their commitment to vote for Biden faces hurdles.

Biden has 3,894 delegates pledged to his nomination — with only 43 uncommitted or pledged to other candidates, according to The Associated Press’ delegate tracker. But he needs only 1,976 votes to win the nomination. So at least 1,919 delegates would have to switch votes.

“Now, theoretically, and it is purely theoretically, the delegates could rebel and just refuse to vote for the nominee or vote for somebody else,” said Larry Sabato, a political scientist and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

“But then there would be floor fights about whether any other ballot should be counted. It would be a gigantic mess, and people who split from the nominee or the consensus would obviously suffer heavily,” he said.

Potential replacements

If Biden were to choose not to run again at the urging of party leaders or first lady Jill Biden, or if delegates actually did vote him off the ballot, Democrats likely would choose a much younger politician who has some national stature.

At the top of the list is Vice President Kamala Harris, who is 59 and a former U.S. senator from California, even though some Democrats quietly express doubts about her viability at the top of the ticket. 

Many of the most often mentioned names are Democratic governors: Gavin Newsom, 56, of California; Josh Shapiro, 51, of Pennsylvania; J.B. Pritzker, 59, of Illinois; Gretchen Whitmer, 52, of Michigan; and Wes Moore, 45, of Maryland.

Biden recovery

As he argued Biden would bounce back, Jacobs pointed to two previous presidents who blew their first debates as they ran for a second term but then went on to recover in the next debate: President Ronald Reagan versus Walter Mondale in 1984 and President Barack Obama against Mitt Romney in 2012.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn) have kept quiet about Biden's debate performance. Schumer tweeted a positive post-debate note Thursday night, and Jeffries said "no" when reporters asked if Biden should be replaced.    

How Biden campaigns in the next few days will be crucial to reassuring the party he is up to running and calming the concerns of outspoken critics, Democratic insiders said.