LI congressional races part of the battle for House control

ALBANY — Long Islanders are not just choosing four Congress members on Nov. 8, but their votes could also play an important role in the fight for control of the House of Representatives, analysts said.

“Long Island could very well be pivotal in determining party control of the House,” said Meena Bose, director of the Kalikow Center for the Study of the American President at Hofstra University. “Voter turnout, of course, will be key.”

Several factors in New York’s 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th congressional districts make predictions difficult. Those include close voter enrollment between Democrats and Republicans and three open seats along with another defended by a freshman congressman. Further, the votes of the large number of voters on Long Island who chose not to enroll in a major party — known as independents — also could be key, analysts said.

Currently, Democrats hold a narrow 220-212 majority, so a Republican pickup of six seats in Tuesday's election would change control of the House. 

“Most of the competitive congressional districts in the country are wholly or substantially suburban,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies. “And this year, because of Long Island’s unusual numbers of districts without incumbents, ‘America’s first suburb’ is positioned to have an inordinate impact on which party controls Congress.”

“By various measures, all four of Nassau and Suffolk’s seats can be considered competitive and, together, they can provide one party or another with a decisive bloc of seats this year,” Levy said.

Which party attracts independent voters also could be critical, said Susan Del Percio, a national political commentator who had worked extensively in New York for Republicans and Democrats.

“When it comes to Long Island, it’s not only about party registration,” she said.

Although FiveThirtyEight, a nonpartisan website that tracks political trends, says Long Island’s races aren’t part of the 10 nationwide that are likely to determine House control, the overall fight “runs through the suburbs and exurbs.”

Here’s the rundown on those four seats:

Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin vacated Suffolk County’s 1st Congressional District to run for governor. That seat is now contested by Republican Nick LaLota, 43, of Amityville, chief of staff to the Republican presiding officer of the Suffolk County Legislature; and Democrat Bridget Fleming, 62, of Noyac, who is a Suffolk County legislator.

Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi vacated his 3rd Congressional District seat in Nassau County and Queens to seek the Democratic nomination for governor. Democrat Robert Zimmerman, 68, of Great Neck, a longtime party activist, fundraiser and adviser, faces Republican George Santos, 34, of Whitestone, who is self-employed in capital markets.

Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice retired after four terms in the 4th Congressional District in Nassau County. Republican Anthony D'Esposito, 40, of Island Park, a Hempstead Town Board member, faces Democrat Laura Gillen, 53, of Rockville Centre, the former Hempstead Town supervisor.

In the 2nd District, first-term Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) represents an area that has reliably voted Republican for Congress since 1993. He faces Democrat Jackie Gordon, a former Babylon Town Board member.

“Before the retirements, you had two Republicans and two Democrats in a blue state,” said Michael Balboni, a political observer and former Republican state senator from Nassau County. “When you take a look at the numbers in Nassau County, Democrats outnumber Republicans, so it’s a blue county. Obviously, Suffolk is a red county, but not by a ton.”

The Long Island races may be a bellwether nationally.

“Long Island diversity in population and income levels make it a perfect place to examine the great American divides over values, race, and economics,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran political adviser in New York and Washington. 

The candidates’ clear delineation on top issues including abortion and crime may cause the results of the Nov. 8 elections to be meaningful well beyond New York State and 2022.

“The similarity of messaging on each side makes them collectively a bellwether for where the country stands on everything from potential presidential candidates to the issues that continue divide us,” Levy said.

By Michael Gormley

michael.gormley@newsday.com@GormleyAlbany

Michael Gormley has worked for Newsday since 2013, covering state government, politics and issues. He has covered Albany since 2001.