Open seats, potential supermajorities at stake in NYS legislative elections

ALBANY — State legislative elections next month include hotly contested races for open seats after more than a dozen prominent senators and Assembly members announced their retirements this year at a level unmatched for a decade.

Although Democratic control of both chambers isn’t expected to be threatened, Democrats are trying to regain and expand supermajorities that were eroded in 2022 in a "red wave" by Republicans.

"There’s a lot of potential change," said Doug Muzzio, a retired political science professor at Baruch College who studies New York politics. "It all depends on turnout, and in a couple of races the margins are going to be very close, so you have the potential of at least a small number — if not large number — of flips ... and Long Island is a hot electoral point. So it’s going to be interesting."

The wild card in legislative elections statewide is the top of the ballot. Voter turnout will be driven by the presidential race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. Traditionally, the winner of presidential races also help their party in races further down the ballot.

"Elections are more and more nationalized," Muzzio said. "That makes the presidential race really critically important because there’s no or very little chance of ticket-splitting."

Supermajorities are party conferences with at least two-thirds of the chamber’s members. Supermajorities could override, say, Gov. Kathy Hochul’s vetoes, although that hasn’t happened in recent history when the governor and Legislature are controlled by the same party. But supermajorities also can provide leverage in negotiations over spending and policy and attract more and bigger campaign donations.

The state Senate’s Democratic majority has fallen to 41 members in the 63-seat chamber, which is one short of a supermajority. The Assembly’s Democratic majority has dropped to 100 members, which is the minimum needed for a supermajority in the 150-member chamber.

The most fiercely contested race in the state is in Syracuse, officials from both major parties agreed. The election is to fill the seat vacated by Democratic Sen. John Mannion, who is running for Congress. Democrat Chris Ryan, a union leader, faces Republican Nick Paro, the Salina town supervisor. Although Mannion held the 50th District seat for two terms, he was the first Democrat to represent the district in 50 years and Republicans still have an edge in voter enrollment.

In Brooklyn’s 17th District, the race demonstrates the expanding clout of Asian Americans in state politics. Republican Steve Chan, a Marine veteran and former New York City police officer who was born in Hong Kong; is taking on Democratic incumbent Sen. Iwen Chu, the Senate’s first Asian American woman in a district dominated by Democratic voters.

Here are some races to watch, including some on Long Island.

In the Assembly:

• The 21st District again pits Assemb. Brian Curran (R-Lynbrook) against Democrat Judy Griffin of Rockville Centre. In 2022, Curran returned to the Assembly by beating then-incumbent Griffin, who had beaten Curran in 2018. Democratic voters dominate the district, which includes parts of Valley Stream, Freeport, North Baldwin and Oceanside.
• The 16th District features Assemb. Gina Sillitti (D-Manorhaven) and Republican Daniel Norber, a business owner, in the increasingly competitive district in northwest Nassau County. On Oct. 15, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie showed broad Democratic support for Sillitti by joining her in Manhasset to note the completion of a sewer project funded in part by the state.
• Republicans are concentrating on flipping the 23rd District in south Queens in a rematch of a 2022 contest their candidate lost by 15 votes. Republican challenger Tom Sullivan, who runs a family business and who has a finance and military background, is again taking on Democratic Assemb. Stacey Pheffer-Amato, who has represented the district since 2017.
• The 1st District in eastern Suffolk County has long been in Democratic control, but this year Assemb. Fred Thiele (D-Sag Harbor) retired after 29 years. Republicans said they see the opening as a chance to take the seat, with Stephen Kiely of Mattituck against Democrat Thomas Schiavoni, a retired teacher from Southampton.

In the Senate, close voter registration in two districts is creating tight races:

• In the 1st District, Democrats are targeting Anthony Palumbo (R-New Suffolk), a two-term senator. He faces activist Sarah Anker, a Democrat who served on the Suffolk County Legislature. The district has 78,607 enrolled Democratic voters, 71,616 Republicans and 68,938 voters not enrolled in a party.
• The 7th District is another target for Democrats. There, Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) faces Democrat Kim Keiserman, a community activist. The Nassau district has 83,919 Democrats, 65,311 Republicans and 69,900 voters not committed to a party.
• Democrats are focusing on the 4th District in Suffolk County after first-term Republican Assemb. Ed Flood (R-Port Jefferson) was disbarred as an attorney this fall. He faces Democrat Rebecca Kassay in the district that was represented by Democrats before Flood’s win in 2022 and has more than a 2-1 enrollment advantage for Democrats.

Regardless of the outcome at the close of the elections on Nov. 5, the State Legislature will have new leaders in prominent posts beginning in January.

Among the departing senators is Kevin Thomas (D-Levittown), a rising leader in the majority who left his seat to run for Congress, and Sen. Neil Breslin (D-Albany), the longest-serving senator and chairman of three powerful committees who is retiring after 28 years.

Key resignations in the Assembly include Assemb. Helene Weinstein (D-Brooklyn), chairwoman of the powerful Assembly Ways and Means Committee who was first elected in 1980 and has served more years in the Assembly than any woman, and 32-year veteran Assemb. Jeffrion Aubry (D-Queens), who as the speaker pro tempore of the chamber presided over nearly all sessions.

By Michael Gormley

michael.gormley@newsday.com@GormleyAlbany

Michael Gormley has worked for Newsday since 2013, covering state government, politics and issues. He has covered Albany since 2001.