Focus is on NY legislative races as Supreme Court pushes more power to states

At a time when the U.S. Supreme Court is pushing more issues back to the states, the battle for the New York State Legislature is reaching its homestretch.

Democrats go in holding 2-1 “supermajorities” in each house, but Republicans are talking confidently, maybe not about capturing a majority but gaining seats — especially in the State Senate.

The outcome, combined with the race for governor, will set the course for action in Albany at a crucial time in political history, candidates and analysts agree.

“The Supreme Court has made it abundantly clear the states will be deciding important issues. More than any other point in my lifetime, state legislatures will be determining the political policies that will affect people’s lives,” said Sen. Michael Gianaris (D-Astoria), who spearheads the Senate Democrats’ campaign plans.

Earlier this year, the court overturned federal abortion rights and New York's strict law on carrying concealed weapons. It's now weighing lawsuits over federal voting rights and the power over redrawing congressional district boundaries every 10 years.

Those issues and others show more is on the line now when voters select a state legislature, political consultant Bruce Gyory said.

"Clearly, the state legislatures are going to be more important. Now the interesting question is: Will voters see it that way?" Gyory said.

In New York, Democrats now hold a 42-20 (one vacancy) advantage in the Senate and 107-42 (one vacancy) in the Assembly.

The better-than-two-thirds majorities give them power to not only control legislation and the state budget but also override a governor’s veto — a lever they haven’t had to deploy with Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in office. But it could become crucial if Republican Lee Zeldin defeats her in November.

Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt, a Niagara County Republican, won’t go so far as to predict a GOP takeover. But he’s confident his side will break the Dems’ supermajority in the Senate, meaning a net GOP gain of at least two seats.

Campaign consultants contacted by Newsday estimated Democrats could wind up with anywhere from 35 to 44 Senate seats, depending on how the electorate breaks.

Key issues at stake

Gianaris noted that Democrats, since taking Senate control in 2019, have enacted a wave of progressive policies on abortion rights, guns, tenant protections and laborers’ rights.

He said it’s an agenda that’s more “reflective of New Yorkers” than a Republican one that he says is focused on cutting taxes on the wealthy.

“We want to protect jobs, provide more resources for child care, expand prekindergarten,” Gianaris said about the Democratic agenda. He said Republicans, especially if Zeldin is governor, would want to loosen gun laws and install an anti-abortion rights health commissioner.

Ortt said a Republican-led Senate would mean focus on crime and economy.

“I call it a return to public safety,” Ortt told Newsday.

His conference would want to repeal or roll back a law that means defendants charged with most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies can’t be held on bail — although odds of a repeal are slight, given Democrats’ strong hold on both houses.

The GOP also would want to change or undo recently enacted Democratic-backed laws restricting licenses for carrying concealed weapons and allowing farm laborers to get paid overtime for working more than 40 hours per week.

They also want to cut taxes, especially for small businesses, reduce “red tape” regulations for businesses and put a cap on state spending.

Ortt would like to revisit the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, a law that requires the state to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. An update on how New York is doing is slated for January, which Ortt says provides a chance to re-examine the mandates and potential costs.

Hot spots

Democrats will be playing defense, trying to protect Senate incumbents on Long Island, in Syracuse and Rochester, and in the Hudson Valley.

On the Island, both parties are spending more in Nassau County than Suffolk, so far.

A key race — which could signal the overall direction of legislative elections — features Sen. Anna Kaplan (D-North Hills) taking on Jack Martins, a former Republican state senator.

Elsewhere, the GOP has spent more than Dems so far in a race to fill a seat vacated by Democrat Todd Kaminsky in southwest Nassau. It pits Republican Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick against Democrat Kenneth Moore.

Sen. John Brooks (D-Seaford) has been elected three times, but — following redistricting — finds himself running in a largely reconfigured Nassau district that favors Republicans. The GOP is backing Steve Rhoads of Hicksville.

“We think all of those seats are pickup opportunities,” Ortt said about Nassau.

North of New York City, campaign strategists point to several key contests, including two that feature incumbents thrown together in one district during redistricting: Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D-Saugerties) vs. Sen. Sue Serino (R-Hyde Park), and Sen. Sean Ryan (D-Buffalo) vs. Sen. Edward Rath (R-Amherst).

Other Democratic incumbents with a target on their backs include Sens. John Mannion (D-Syracuse) and Elijah Reichlin-Melnick (D-Nyack).

An open seat in the Binghamton-Ithaca area, pitting Democrat Lea Webb against Republican Richard David, also is under the microscope.

While the importance of legislative elections is heightened, the contests have become almost invisible because of the focus on Congress and gubernatorial races, said Gerald Benjamin, a former political science professor and longtime observer of state politics.

“The closeness of the national election has driven legislative elections into, I wouldn’t say anonymity, but made them far less visible,” Benjamin said, adding, “even though what’s prospectively coming to the legislature in the future is very important.”

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy