How the new NYS congressional redistricting map would affect Long Island

ALBANY — A new map of New York’s congressional districts would subtly shift Long Island districts to, in theory, help two Republicans and one Democrat.

The new map was outlined in a bill drafted by the Democratic-led State Legislature late Monday night and is poised to be approved by lawmakers as early as Wednesday. It would give Democrats better chances than they currently have in three districts while trading off territory with Republicans, observers said.

But, overall, changes were modest. Republicans who floated the idea of challenging the new map were noticeably silent when details were published Tuesday.

On Long Island, the 3rd Congressional District — held by Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) — would move north and east. Suozzi would lose Republican-rich Massapequa and gain parts of Suffolk County’s North Shore, including Huntington, Huntington Station, Cold Spring Harbor and Lloyd Harbor.

The Queens portion of the district essentially remains intact.

As measured by the 2020 presidential vote, the district would change from a 54% Democrat majority to 56%, according to mapping data provided by Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York, which has extensively followed redistricting.

Moving the 3rd District would trigger other changes.

The 2nd Congressional District — held by Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) — would move west along the coast, losing the Moriches but gaining Massapequa. It would go from 49.2% Democrat to 48.8%.

The 1st Congressional District — held by Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) — would lose Lloyd Harbor, Cold Spring Harbor and Huntington, but pick up Moriches. It would go from 50% Democrat to 49%.

The 4th Congressional District — held by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) — basically would be unchanged. As measured by votes in the 2020 presidential election, the district is 57% Democratic, according to CUNY data.

Overall, the new map would make just minor changes to New York's current one, according to the head of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project of Princeton University. Though Democrats in the legislature control the redistricting process, Princeton's Samuel Wang said that the proposed map is “not a partisan gerrymander,” and that his group is likely to give it an “A” grade.

In short, Democrats played it cautiously in his view — certainly more cautiously than some Democrats might have wanted, given the state's 26 contests will play a role in which party wins control of Congress this fall.

“If these are the maps, we should be happy,” a leading Republican said, asking to not be named because the maps are yet to be approved. The map sets up Democrats to gain perhaps two seats in the fall, the Republican said, but that's not as bad as the party feared.

CUNY's analysis said the population trades in districts 1, 2 and 3 match up evenly. 

• Suozzi gets 6% of LaLota's district but loses 6% to Garbarino.
• LaLota gets 6% of Garbarino's district and loses 6% to Suozzi.
• Garbarino gets 6% of Suozzi's district and loses 6% to LaLota. 

Per federal law, the districts have to remain of approximately equal size.

Just hours after the maps went public, Democrat Jim Gaughran suspended his campaign to take on LaLota, noting much of his base in Huntington would become part of Suozzi's district.

The new map also would help Democrats in swing districts in the Hudson Valley and Syracuse areas, giving them a slightly better chance to unseat Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-Poughkeepsie) and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), as Newsday previously reported.

Some Republicans feared a map drawn by the legislature would radically alter districts. Princeton's Wang said that is not the case.

“We've examined the legislature's draft plan. It is not a partisan gerrymander,” Wang told Newsday. “In my view, the legislature has behaved quite differently compared with its initial behavior. They seem to be taking the previous court ruling seriously.”

Wang was referring the a map approved by the State Legislature in 2022, which could have helped Democrats flip six seats but which was thrown out by New York's Court of Appeals as illegally gerrymandered.

A special master — from Princeton — drew the map the state used in the 2022 elections, which made many districts competitive and helped Republicans gain seats in New York.

Later, Democrats successfully sued to have the courts declare the 2022 map was a short-term fix and start the process over.

Per the state constitution, the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission took the first step of drawing and proposing a new map. The legislature voted it down Monday, clearing the way for it to propose a new version.

The state Assembly and Senate could vote on the new map as soon as Wednesday, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie (D-Bronx) said. The urgency is that the window for gathering petition signatures to qualify for congressional primaries in June opened Tuesday.

The legislature could change that process like it has done in the past in a time crunch, though would rather not. Still, Gov. Kathy Hochul signaled lawmakers want to act quickly.

“As far as timing, yes, there's a sense of urgency around this,” Hochul told reporters at an event Tuesday in Schenectady. “People are out there with their petitions already. So I'm anxious to have this chapter wrapped up as soon as possible.”

With Keshia Clukey

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy