GOP strategy behind Mazi Pilip's campaign fails to deliver a win

The Republican strategy for Tuesday’s special election in the 3rd Congressional District was clear:

Tout Mazi Melesa Pilip’s profile but stay out of the limelight. Highlight her personal story and Israeli military background. Don’t do multiple debates, but zero-in on a hot-button issue: immigration.

It didn’t work. The Republican-backed candidate lost to Democrat Tom Suozzi by 8 points — a surprising margin considering polls showed a much closer race.

In the aftermath, analysts said a combination of factors worked to undo what had been a three-year winning Republican winning streak on Long Island:

Suozzi, a former congressman and Nassau County executive, was well known to local voters, so GOP attempts to label him as an extreme Democrat failed, Pilip was less known and was far less visible, running a “Rose Garden” campaign of avoiding the spotlight which ultimately allowed Democrats to attack her as supporting an extreme Republican agenda, Pilip succeeded in making immigration a major issue, but it lost effectiveness when Republicans in Washington tanked a bipartisan immigration deal, It allowed Suozzi to go on the offensive, Democrats had better turnout in early voting; Republicans might have paid a price for, as one analyst said, following Donald Trump’s lead of vilifying early voting,.

All of it contributed to a Democratic win and a harsh post-mortem in a race being watched in national politics.

“The GOP strategy of focusing on immigration and going with a fresh face was hardly a bad one,” said Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University.

“But they arguably were undone by the tactical mistakes of allowing Suozzi to go on the counteroffensive over the issue of bipartisanship and the reality that (Pilip) was, perhaps, more unprepared for a brighter spotlight on national and international affairs.”

Pilip is a Nassau County legislator who works with the Republican conference even though she’s an enrolled Democrat. She’s an Ethiopian Jew who served in the Israel Defense Forces in a noncombat role and later immigrated to the United States.

Many saw it as a strong profile for the congressional district, which leaned Democratic but elected the largely unknown George Santos in 2022 as part of “red wave” on Long Island. Santos had a shot at it because Suozzi, who held the seat for six years, decided to run a long shot and unsuccessful campaign for governor.

Santos later was exposed for fabricating large parts of his biography and, more importantly, was indicted on 23 counts of campaign fraud and other charges. The U.S. House took the rare step of expelling Santos in December, creating the need for the special election.

That Pilip followed Santos and was considered unknown did not help, in hindsight, analysts said. Especially after she kept a lower profile during the race and agreed to just one debate.

Pilip largely avoided open availabilities with journalists and public events with Suozzi.

“They had a candidate who didn’t go out there,” said Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist.

“Republicans were more about putting up a message than a person,” she said. “They tried to highlight (Pilip’s) history but people want to see the candidate — especially after the George Santos debacle. Suozzi is known in the district and he was out in the district.”

“They needed to fight the battle of Mazi Pilip. They needed to fill in the blanks for people,” but didn’t, said veteran Republican strategist Michael Dawidziak.

Further, Dawidziak said turnout is always the biggest factor in special elections and contended the “big flaw” in Republican strategy Tuesday and in other contests is to generally follow Trump’s lead in “vilifying” early voting and absentee voting. Early voting Tuesday showed much better turnout for Democrats, as it often does.

“From what I can see, turnout was pretty even” on Election Day, he said, “so Suozzi probably won through early voting.”

And there were other factors.

Del Percio said Pilip and Republicans “put Suozzi on his heels on immigration,” but it turned around when House Republicans “tanked” a potential immigration deal in Washington. Pilip said she opposed the deal as well, opening a door for Suozzi.

“To oppose the bipartisan agreement, I think, was a fundamental, tactical mistake,” Levy said of Pilip. “It gave Suozzi a chance to launch a counteroffensive and say, ‘I’m a problem solver. I’m a moderate. I’ll make compromises to get things done and she won’t.’ It enabled Suozzi to reframe the issue of immigration.”

Republicans also tried to tag Suozzi as a member of the “squad,” a group of very progressive Democrats. It failed because Suozzi was well known as a much more moderate Democrat, said Sidney Davidoff, a longtime lobbyist and fixture in New York politics.

“Anyone who knows anything about that district knows Suozzi isn’t” squad material, Davidoff said. “It would have been different with an unknown (Democrat). But with Suozzi, it was a failure.”

Davidoff said Santos' surprise victory and later demise had to play a role as well.

"Somehow Santos got elected — they went to an unknown. They were burnt by it and a lot of them weren't going to take a chance on a second unknown," he said.