Tim Walz will appeal to moderates voters, Dems officials and analysts say

Democrats and analysts said Tuesday the selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be the party's vice presidential candidate will appeal to moderate voters and help certain down-ballot candidates in New York, though others said history shows running mates have little positive impact.

Walz, 60, a military veteran and union supporter, was chosen by Democrat Kamala Harris to be her running mate this fall against Republican Donald Trump and GOP vice presidential candidate JD Vance, an Ohio senator.

Democrats and Republicans in New York lined up where expected when the Walz choice was announced.

New York Democratic chairman Jay Jacobs said he believes Walz will help Harris with voters in the political middle in the state because his experience and record will contrast with Vance.

Ed Cox, the New York Republican chairman, said the Walz choice "doesn't do much for her," referring to Harris.

Several analysts said the choice might help Democratic congressional candidates in Nassau County, but not necessarily Suffolk County. And some said that at least Walz's selection isn’t a mistake that could cost a presidential candidate, as other recent vice presidential candidates have.

Walz was one of several Democrats Harris had considered, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.

"Harris clearly decided she wanted a horizontal choice who had broad appeal, rather than someone who had more specific appeal, like a Shapiro potentially locking up a single important state or Kelly giving her some degree of inoculation on border issues," Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University, told Newsday.

Walz could help other candidates

Levy said Walz could boost Democrats in two congressional races on Long Island: Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) seeking reelection against former Assemb. Mike LiPetri in the 3rd Congressional District, and former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen seeking to beat Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-Island Park) in the 4th Congressional District.

"It will clearly help Suozzi and Gillen because it helps to cement the Democratic base, which is larger than the Republican base. And his moderate aspect may help them with the swing voters who have been turning, locally at least, to Republicans in recent years," Levy said.

He said Walz might be of more limited help in the Suffolk-based 1st Congressional District where Democrat John Avlon is taking on Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville). Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) is considered a safe reelection bet in the 2nd Congressional District, which runs along the South Shore.

Michael Dawidziak, a veteran Republican political consultant in Bohemia, agreed to a degree, saying of Walz: "He does have progressive policies on his record that I'm going to think play a little better in Nassau than they do in Suffolk."

"So in some ways, I think this is probably good news for the two Republican candidates in Suffolk, and probably good news for the two Democratic candidates in Nassau," added Dawidziak, who has done campaign work for Garbarino.

The four Long Island seats are considered important to which party wins control of the U.S. House of Representatives. But so are several swing districts in the Hudson Valley and Syracuse areas.

Jacobs said Walz’s record will contrast with Vance’s recent remarks about supporting a national abortion ban and contending that people with children should have more say in government than those who don’t.

"Tim Walz is an accomplished governor. He is somebody who is moderate and is somebody who, I think, will connect very well with the average voter in New York and the rest of the country," Jacobs said. "Walz is a mainstream, common-sense Democrat and that can only help in the suburbs, the Hudson Valley and upstate."

'Doesn't do much for Harris'

Cox, the son-in-law of the late President Richard M. Nixon, countered that a "vice president never has much direct impact."

"In the end, it doesn’t do much for [Harris], and it reinforces her downsides" — what Cox called "ultraliberal." He said he doubts the choice of a running mate will matter in New York's key congressional districts.

"I don’t think it’s going to have much impact. It’s really incremental," Cox said. "And we’re talking about all the [swing] districts, Hudson Valley, Long Island, all the districts."

In fact, some say history shows that a vice presidential selection can hurt a presidential candidate more than help — Sarah Palin in 2008, Dan Quayle in 1988, Thomas Eagleton in 1972. So the most important thing a candidate can do is avoid a mistake.

"Honestly, there’s a lot of recent political research that says that vice presidential candidates don’t necessarily swing elections or pull out a vote based on ideology," said Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from Suffolk County who once led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

"On the other hand, mistakes matter, as we saw from [Republican] Sarah Palin [in 2008], whose provocative statements made swing voters in battleground states uncomfortable," Israel said. "So the impact for down-ballot races on Long Island and elsewhere remains to be seen."