5 things to watch as Trump and Biden debate

WASHINGTON — Joe Biden and Donald Trump will go head to head Thursday night in an unusually early first debate that could focus the attention of voters on the unprecedented rematch between the sitting Democratic president and his Republican predecessor.

The 90-minute debate begins at 9 p.m. and takes place in CNN’s Atlanta studios with no audience or opening statements — just questions to each candidate by CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash and a mute-enabled microphone.

“It’s an extremely serious election, but there’s also like a show business aspect to this: Donald Trump coming back … Biden and all the questions about whether he’s up for the job,” said retired Long Island Republican congressman Peter King from Seaford.

“It’s not your ordinary debate and even though it’s summer I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t get the largest audience of any debate ever,” King said.

Polls now show Trump either with a slight lead over Biden or neck and neck. Northwestern University presidential rhetoric scholar David Zarefsky said debates change very few votes. But he added, “Of course, in close elections, very few votes can make a difference.”

This debate, held in a smallish studio with only CNN staff, will not be the usual “public spectacle” of earlier encounters, said Hofstra University’s School of Communications Dean Mark Lukasiewicz, a former news executive involved in 10 presidential primary debates.

“I think it's going to be a very different atmosphere. And I think the result on television is also going to be very different,” he said.

“In the end, what may matter more is how those who do see the debate translate it for those who do not,” said Georgetown University politics professor Hans Noel.

Or, as Andrew J. Perrin, chair of the sociology department at Johns Hopkins University, put it: “We’re going to see the debate, and then we’ll see the debate about the debate.”

Here are five things to watch for in Thursday’s presidential debate.

Memorable quotes

Watch for the zingers or off-the-cuff remarks. For many candidates, they’ve become the essence of the debates, said Peter Pomerantsev, a senior fellow at the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University.

“They’re coming up with these one liners,” he said, “which they know will be the things that are repeated ad nauseam.”

Consider Biden’s retort to Trump in the first 2020 debate: “Will you shut up, man?” Or in the same debate when asked about right-wing groups, Trump said, “Proud Boys, stand back and stand by.”

And then there’s the Ronald Reagan classic about being 73 years old and running for reelection in 1984: “I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience.”

Senior moments

Be on the alert for slip-ups by Biden, 81, and Trump, 78. It’s a bigger risk for Biden.

“While these guys are within a few years of each other in age, the perception is that one is much older than the other,” Zarefsky said. “I think Biden's failures of age are more obvious. He talks slower, he walks slower. He has these remnants of his stuttering past. Trump seems to be more energetic.”

Former Long Island Democratic congressman Steve Israel said Biden will rise to the occasion. “Before the State of the Union earlier this year, the punditry was saying that Joe Biden had to demonstrate vigor and energy. And he did,” he said.

Abortion

Both men will likely face questions not only about the conservative Supreme Court’s decision to overturn federal abortion protections two years ago, but also about plans to protect access to in vitro fertilization treatments and birth control.

Trump has embraced the June 2022 ruling passed by the high court stacked with three of his appointees, while Biden has ramped up his line of attacks that portray Trump and Republicans as a threat to women’s access to IVF and contraceptives. “If Trump says something particularly incendiary around abortion, I'm pretty sure that Democrats will leap on that,” said Pomerantsev.

Immigration

Expect both candidates to be asked about their immigration agenda as most national polls show the increase in migrants crossing the U.S. southern border is a top concern among voters.

Biden recently issued a pair of executive orders on the subject. One aims to block migrants from applying for asylum in the United States when illegal border crossings exceed 2,500 a day. The other provides a pathway to citizenship for noncitizens who — as of June 17, 2024 — have resided in the United States for 10 or more years and are legally married to a U.S. citizen. 

Trump, on the campaign trail, continues to tout the hard-line immigration policies of his first four years in office and has recently said if reelected he will direct the U.S. military to aid with a mass deportation campaign.

Convictions

Both campaigns are likely bracing for questions about Trump’s recent conviction in the Manhattan hush money trial and the conviction of Biden’s son, Hunter, on federal gun charges in Delaware.

Trump, who was found guilty by a jury of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments made to alleged paramours during the 2016 presidential election, recently had a gag order surrounding the case partially lifted, leading to the possibility that he could attack some of the trial witnesses.

“There'll be an attempt on the Biden team's part to bring as much as they can back to Trump's character,” said Zarefsky, referring in part to the conviction. If the moderators ask questions about the 34-count conviction, Noel said, “Trump may want to get his version of the events around his conviction to a wider audience.”

Correction: Under President Joe Biden's executive action for allowing a path to citizenship for noncitizens married to citizens, the noncitizens must — as of June 17, 2024 — have resided in the United States for 10 or more years and be legally married to a U.S. citizen. A story on Thursday misstated the terms of the order.