Both parties hope to gain from Trump's Long Island rally

Long Island politicians are looking at former President Donald Trump’s campaign rally at Nassau Coliseum on Wednesday as a potential win for down-ballot candidates in both parties. 

For Republicans interviewed by Newsday, Trump’s visit is the ultimate opportunity to boost base support for down-ballot candidates, including Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), who is running against Democrat Laura Gillen for New York’s 4th Congressional District, a seat long held by Democrats before he flipped it two years ago.

For Democrats that Newsday spoke with, Trump’s visit is a chance to tie D’Esposito and other Republican candidates to the former president’s controversial rhetoric, including Trump’s recent unfounded claims that migrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating pets.

In a tight election year, when swing suburban voters like those on Long Island are viewed as critical to winning control of Congress, political analysts say Trump’s rally underscores the push by both parties to galvanize partisan turnout while winning over the narrow sliver of moderate undecided voters.

"Campaigns don't just do things willy-nilly. They go to places that are intentional," said Christopher Malone, a political-science professor at Farmingdale State College. "So what's the intention here? I think the intention is shoring up base support and getting the base of the Republican Party on Long Island and in Nassau and Suffolk counties enthused."

Trump’s visit was originally scheduled to coincide with a planned sentencing hearing in Manhattan for his hush money conviction, but the hearing was moved to Nov. 26. Despite the hearing delay, the Trump campaign proceeded with the rally, and maintained those plans after an apparent assassination attempt against Trump was foiled by Secret Service agents at his Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Sunday.

With six weeks until Election Day, most presidential candidates stump in swing states. But Trump’s decision to campaign on Long Island comes as both parties have poured resources into the D’Esposito and Gillen rematch, as well as the 1st Congressional District race between freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) and Democrat John Avlon, a former CNN commentator.

The Cook Political Report — a nonpartisan outlet that tracks congressional races — has listed both the 1st and 4th District races as competitive, with the 4th District rated a "tossup" and the 1st District rated as "Likely Republican." The race for the 3rd Congressional District between Rep. Tom Suozzi (D- Glen Cove) and Republican Michael LiPetri Jr. is rated as leaning "Likely Democrat," and the race for the 2nd Congressional District between Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) and Democrat Rob Lubin is rated as "Solid Republican."

D’Esposito said in a phone interview that he welcomes the opportunity to campaign alongside Trump, saying the former president's messaging may resonate with Democrats "who feel that far too often their party seems to go a little bit too far to the left and too far progressive."

"I think that we've seen that in the last few years, the Republicans have garnered the support of the independents and the more middle-of-the-road Democrats," D’Esposito said.

Gillen, a former Hempstead Town supervisor, has taken aim at D’Esposito on social media for campaigning with Trump after the former president repeated baseless claims at last week’s presidential debate about Haitian migrants eating pets. Springfield, Ohio, officials have repeatedly said the online claims are unfounded.

"Our Haitian neighbors here in Nassau County are an integral part of our community, and should be celebrated — not ostracized and slandered," Gillen wrote. "If Anthony D'Esposito chooses to stand with Trump in Uniondale, he's standing against his constituents."

Asked about the Trump rally and its potential impact, National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Savannah Viar did not mention the former president by name in a statement, but said "voters will overwhelmingly continue to flock to the Republican Party: the party of secure borders, robust economic policies, and law and order."

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Ellie Dougherty in a statement said "By rallying with Trump, D’Esposito is all but guaranteeing his pink slip come November."

State GOP Chairman Ed Cox, who is expected to speak at the rally, told Newsday he views Trump’s visit as "a tremendous boost for getting out our vote and maintaining Long Island as a Republican bastion in the upcoming elections."

D’Esposito, a former NYPD detective and Hempstead Town councilmember, won his seat in 2022 amid a wave of Republican gains on Long Island. Democrats on Long Island have been looking to undo the Republican gains, with many pointing to February’s special election victory by Suozzi as a signal the political pendulum is swinging back to the party.

Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies, said while Republicans are hopeful Trump’s rally will turn out their base, "in a presidential election year it is just not possible to win only with your base in a moderate suburban area."

Levy said Trump lost Nassau County in both 2016 and 2020, and D'Esposito won it narrowly in 2022. With more Democrats likely to vote in a presidential election year, Levy said D'Esposito would need to connect with enough of them to overcome a significant registration advantage for his opponent.

Trump meanwhile offered a preview of his messaging in an all-caps missive on social media on Tuesday: "WHAT THE HELL DO YOU HAVE TO LOSE? VOTE FOR TRUMP!"

By Laura Figueroa Hernandez

laura.figueroa@newsday.com@Laura_Figueroa

Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.