Pope Francis' successor likely to be in his 70s, papal experts say

It’s one of the hardest jobs on the planet, requiring frequent international travel, overseeing a vast bureaucracy and handling everything from major real estate holdings to hot-button cultural issues.

Yet whoever is elected pope — a lifetime appointment — is typically at an age when most people are retired or close to it. Sometimes being a younger man even hurts a cardinal’s chances of getting selected to lead the 1.4 billon strong Roman Catholic Church, according to Vatican experts.

When you look at most of the leading candidates at the conclave in Rome that starts Wednesday, "you see all these guys who are in their 70s and should be lounging on the beaches of the Amalfi coast and loving life and sipping cappuccino and fine Italian wine," said the Rev. Patrick Flanagan, an assistant professor of theology and religious studies at St. John’s University.

But "then they’re called to lead the church and sit in the seat of St. Peter, and you say ... where do they get the energy? I don't know ... It’s just amazing to me."

Jorge Bergoglio was 76 when he became Pope Francis. His predecessor, Joseph Ratzinger, was 78 when he became Pope Benedict XVI. The papacy wore him out enough that he resigned at age 85 — the first pope to voluntarily step down in 600 years.

Even by the church’s own standards, many popes are past retirement age when they start their pontificates. Bishops are required to submit their letters of resignation to the pope when they turn 75.

The cardinals in the conclave tend to elect older men pope in part because of their wisdom and experience, Flanagan said.

Serve until death

But there’s another practical reason: A younger man could end up serving as pope for decades. Like U.S. Supreme Court justices, popes serve until they die unless they resign.

The last time the cardinals elected a younger pope, John Paul II, he was 58 years old. He served for 26 years.

"Nobody wants to have the prospect of a 30-year papacy again. It's just too much of the same thing for too long," said the Rev. Thomas Massaro, a Jesuit priest and professor of moral theology at Fordham University.

"It's just not good for the church to have one single leader," he said. "That's why we get men elected in their 70s, and that's really kind of the sweet spot."

"Catholics seem comfortable with the idea of an elderly universal pastor," John Thavis, author of "The Vatican Diaries," wrote on his blog.

John Paul II was elected at a younger age in part because his predecessor, John Paul I, died of a heart attack at age 65 just 33 days after becoming pope, said Daniel Rober, an associate professor of Catholic studies at Sacred Heart University.

Francis had said at the start of his papacy in 2013 that he expected it to last maybe a few years, in part because a portion of one of his lungs was removed when he was younger, though he did not resign despite mounting health problems.

That "had the effect of removing papal resignation as a default expectation among those who will elect his successor," Thavis wrote, meaning they will likely still look for an older cardinal to succeed Francis.

Selected by God

As a pope ages, it’s hard to encourage him to retire or for him to consider it, since the church believes his selection was God’s will, Massaro said.

"There's a sense in Catholic theology that your selection is really authored by the Holy Spirit, by God himself ... for the remainder of your life," he said. "It's like a sacred mission. You've been given this mission by God, and your understanding is you do it until your death."

That may become problematic. Church experts generally agree that John Paul II, while beloved by many, was incapacitated for at least the final months of his papacy and that financial problems and other issues grew in the Vatican in his absence.

There "were figures in the Vatican exercising a lot of control who probably shouldn't have," Rober said.

Despite such issues, it’s highly unlikely the church will impose a mandatory retirement age for popes, though some recent ones, including Francis, have written private letters instructing authorities what to do if they become incapacitated, Massaro said.

Some analysts think that even if an elderly pope becomes sick or disabled, all is not lost. Francis spent 38 days in the hospital toward the end of his life and was in a wheelchair, including on his final day when he addressed the faithful in St. Peter’s Square.

"Francis taught the world, it seems, that no matter whether you're standing erect or whether you're sitting in a wheelchair, you still have dignity and you still have a place in society," Flanagan said. "Even someone from a wheelchair could be effective."