MTA: It could be 13 years before all LIRR riders return
It could take another 13 years for the Long Island Rail Road to get back all the riders it lost during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to MTA officials, who said the slow rebound will cost the transit agency billions of dollars that will have to be made up.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority — the LIRR’s parent organization — released its revised ridership forecast on Monday as part of the latest update to its financial plan. The MTA in 2020 hired global consulting firm McKinsey & Co. to prepare a study analyzing the pandemic’s impact on ridership. That study predicted that about 80% of the MTA’s pre-pandemic riders would be back by now, as vaccines would be widely available.
But several unexpected factors, including COVID-19's omicron variant, riders’ concerns about crime in the transit system, and changes in work schedules have resulted in only about 60% of riders returning so far.
The revised projections put together by McKinsey now predict that it could take until 2026 for the MTA to recover 80% of its pre-pandemic ridership. MTA officials said they don’t expect to be back to 100% until around 2035. The projections are averaged across all the MTA’s various transit agencies, and officials said they expect it will take longer for the LIRR’s ridership to recover than subways and buses.
The LIRR carried 91 million people in 2019 — the most in 70 years.
MTA officials estimate the ridership trends will cost the agency about $1 billion a year in revenue through 2026, and will speed up reaching a “fiscal cliff” — when the agency exhausts around $15 billion in federal COVID-19 relief aid. The MTA now predicts having an annual deficit of $2.5 billion by 2025 — a year earlier than originally projected.
MTA chief financial officer Kevin Willens suggested spreading the federal aid over a longer period, which could reduce the deficit by $1 billion each year, but that would mean the agency would face a budget shortfall as early as next year. He said using the federal money to “buy time” was “not the responsible way to go.”
“This is, in essence, just kicking the can,” said Willens, who noted new ridership forecasts show the MTA’s fortunes won’t be reversed anytime soon. “What are we waiting for? The new normal is here.”
To “attack the problem sooner, rather than later,” Willens said the MTA must find a new, sustainable revenue stream that would generate $800 million next year, and $1.6 billion annually beginning in 2024.
In a report last week, the office of State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli urged the MTA to “be creative in taking measures to boost ridership,” but also suggested that more severe measures might be necessary, including “recalibrating service” to the lower demand, and considering which of the many projects in its $55.4 billion Capital Program are most critical, and which can wait.
On Monday, the MTA announced plans to grow that Capital Program by $108 million in order to accelerate several planned projects, including accessibility upgrades at many LIRR stations. Some of those stations are in Amityville, Lindenhurst and Massapequa Park.
MTA Construction & Development president Jamie Torres-Springer said the agency is aiming to “enhance equity and address emerging trends by prioritizing projects that serve riders in areas that rely on transit the most.”
The MTA on Monday also offered an early look at some of the projects that could be included in its next major infrastructure spending package.
The agency revealed that among the projects being considered as part of its forthcoming “Twenty-year Needs Assessment” report are the reactivation of two LIRR lines that have been dormant for decades: the Lower Montauk branch, which runs from Long Island City, Queens to Jamaica, and the Rockaway Beach Branch, which runs from Rego Park to Far Rockaway. Also being considered are “Port Jefferson Branch improvement” and “rail line electrification."
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