Busy Thanksgiving holiday travel season projected with gas prices down, inflation lowering

Getting away this Thanksgiving? Join the crowds.

It’s expected to be the third-busiest Thanksgiving holiday travel season in more than two decades as more than 55 million Americans are expected to hit the roads, skies and seas, according to AAA projections.

This year’s travel volume is projected to increase 2.3% over last year, making it the highest Thanksgiving travel period following 2005 and 2019, according to the AAA, which started keeping track in 2000.

Driving remains the most popular way to get around, with more than 49 million people nationwide expected to get in a car, a 1.7 % increase compared to last year. The increased road travel comes amid lower gas prices that could continue to dip, according to AAA Northeast.

“The economy remains strong, inflation is lowering, and gas prices are moderating,” said John Rizzo, economist and Stony Brook University professor.

The national average cost of a gallon of gas was $3.35 on Tuesday, roughly 42 cents cheaper than last year, according to AAA. On Long Island, gas was $3.52 per gallon, 30 cents cheaper compared to last year.

Airports across the country also will be packed, with a total of 4.7 million people expected to fly out, a 6.6% uptick compared to last year, according to AAA projections.

The most hectic days at the airports are expected to be the Tuesday and Wednesday before the big feast and the Sunday afterward, according to the Transportation Security Administration, which anticipates screening a total of roughly 8.2 million passengers on those three days.

Leave early Wednesday, or after 6 p.m.

For motorists, delays are expected to peak the day before Thanksgiving, according to INRIX, an analytics company.

To avoid gridlock, drivers should get on the road bright and early or after 6 p.m.

Long Islanders navigating the roads this holiday will be dealing with commuters as well as tourists, as New York City remains the sixth-most popular travel destination in the country, according to Robert Sinclair Jr., a spokesman with AAA Northeast. 

“We’ll have a lot of people coming into our area as well as leaving, and that’s a formula for a lot of traffic,” Sinclair said.

Traffic from Manhattan to the Hamptons on the Long Island Expressway is expected to be the worst on Wednesday at 3:45 p.m., when congestion will be 23% higher than average, according to INRIX. Motorists returning from the Hamptons on the LIE on Friday will hit the most traffic at 6 p.m., 29% more than normal, according to INRIX.

New York drivers heading to the Jersey Shore will see some of the worst traffic on the Garden State Parkway, with a 38% increase in traffic on Thursday at 4:30 p.m., according to INRIX. Returning from the Jersey Shore on the Garden State Parkway on Sunday at 11:15 a.m. means a 64% surge in traffic compared to normal travel times.

Airlines flying larger planes

As far as what flyers should expect, Kathleen Bangs, spokesperson for FlightAware, a digital aviation company, said airlines have beefed up their staffing levels this year and are flying about the same number of passengers as 2019 but using larger aircraft, so there are fewer flights overall and slimmer chances for rescheduling flights. 

"That means bigger airplanes that take more time to turn at the gate, that means less flights and less choice overall, and it means flights are filled so less chance of rebooking a later flight if you miss a connection," Bangs said in an email. 

Bangs also added that New York City airports tend to see higher-than-average cancellation rates and delays so passengers should get to the airports early.

According to the AAA, average costs for domestic flights run $681, 5% higher than last year. Domestic hotel stays are 12% lower than 2022.

International airfares are down 5.7% from last year.

Other modes of travel are also seeing an uptick. 

Nearly 11% percent more people, or 1.55 million travelers, will be taking a cruise, bus or train this year compared to 2022.

Domestic cruise prices are down 12%, but overseas cruises are up 24% compared to last year.