New York Yankees starting pitcher A.J. Burnett in the dugout...

New York Yankees starting pitcher A.J. Burnett in the dugout in the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Yankee Stadium. (Aug. 9, 2011) Credit: AP

When it comes to baseball teams and starting rotations, the unknown often prevails over the scenarios we love to discuss.

The Yankees have rotation gridlock? No problem. Here's Freddy Garcia sporting a cut -- the origin of which he won't discuss -- on his right index finger.

Garcia's injury means the other five Yankees starting pitchers go on normal rest? Not so fast. Torrential rain Sunday wiped out action at Yankee Stadium, meaning that everyone will get an extra day, with Garcia still a possibility later this week in Minneapolis. A.J. Burnett, who was supposed to replace Garcia yesterday against the Rays, will pitch Monday night in Kansas City.

But there's a wide gulf between adjusting to the unknown and considering the unconfirmed, and that's where we bring Burnett back into this conversation, and ask this question:

If the Yankees are as committed as they profess to keeping him in their rotation, can they at least improve at getting him out of games more quickly?

"Those are things you can look at, but when a guy's throwing the ball well, you hate to pull him. That's the bottom line," manager Joe Girardi told Newsday. "We're prepared, if we have to make a change, to make a change. A lot of times, they're 2-1 games. By the time something happens, it's 3-2, 4-2. It's quick."

This notion is based on some statistical evidence, some anecdotal, and in mind of Brian Cashman's impassioned defense of Burnett from Friday night. It speaks, most of all, to the conventional wisdom on the veteran righthander: that he relies more on his arm than on his mind, and that he doesn't cope well with in-game adversity.

More than anything, it offers a simple plan: If the Yankees -- armed with a deep bullpen and powerful offense -- exhibited less tolerance of Burnett's implosions, he'd have a better record and ERA in exchange for fewer innings pitched, and we'd have fewer debates about his value.

Burnett's worst two innings this season are the sixth (8.15 ERA in 172/3 innings pitched) and the seventh (9.00 ERA in nine innings). For the most part, he's doing a decent job of keeping his team in the game in the early innings, which certainly has value.

Now, admittedly, we're talking about small sample sizes here. Burnett has made it into the sixth in 21 of his 24 starts, and he has allowed one or more sixth-inning runs in nine of those starts. But it does correlate somewhat to the narrative on Burnett, that once he runs into trouble, he struggles to restore order.

Burnett's strand rate (percentage of runners left on base) this season is 71.3 percent, slightly worse than his overall career rate of 71.6 percent. In comparison, CC Sabathia is stranding 75.2 percent of runners and Garcia 77.1 percent. In other words, Burnett doesn't pitch as well in jams as do his teammates.

As for Cashman's plea Friday to "smoke the objective pipe" on Burnett, let's take a look: He has a 91 ERA+, which means he's 9 percent worse than the average American League pitcher. His FIP, which incorporates a formula using walks, strikeouts and home runs, is 4.67, slightly worse than his 4.60 ERA.

Looking at his batting average on balls in play (.271) against his line-drive percentage (18 percent, according to FanGraphs.com) shows that, if anything, Burnett has benefited from good luck rather than suffering from bad luck. On the other side, Burnett's xFIP, which includes fly-ball rates relative to home runs, is a lower 3.94, which means his home run percentage (22 in 1482/3 innings) could trend downward.

Run support? According to the Elias Sports Bureau, of the 50 AL pitchers with at least 20 starts, Burnett ranks 17th with 4.71 runs per game. Sabathia (5.77) has more, Garcia (4.65) a bit less.

In all, it looks as if Burnett is just about where he should be. And he should be on the verge of being thrown out of the Yankees' rotation. For now, though, why not at least try the quick hook?

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