Why AP called the Montana Senate race for Republican Tim Sheehy

WASHINGTON — Republican Tim Sheehy shaved Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's margins in Montana's populous counties and ran up his lead in the state's more rural regions building a cushion the incumbent couldn't catch when The Associated Press called the race.

Sheehy cut into Tester's margins from six years ago in the counties where most of the state's people live. In Bozeman's Gallatin County, Sheehy was doing about 5 percentage points better than his Republican counterpart in the 2018 race. In Lewis and Clark and Yellowstone counties — home to the capital Helena and the state's most populous city, Billings — Sheehy similarly sliced into Tester's lead.

Those gains and dominance in the state's less populous, rural counties, allowed Sheehy to build a lead Tester couldn't catch, even if he won the remaining votes overwhelmingly, at the time the race was called at 6:26 a.m. ET.

CANDIDATES: Tester (D) vs. Sheehy (R) and two others.

WINNER: Sheehy

POLL CLOSING TIME: 10 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE: Tester, who had been seeking a fourth term, is a grain farmer and a member of an increasingly bygone political group — a Democrat from the Northern Plains.

Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and wealthy aerospace executive, cast Tester as a Washington insider. Tester tarred his opponent as a “fake cowboy." But perhaps the most remarkable thing about the race has been the flood of campaign spending.

With Republicans hopeful their path to a Senate majority runs squarely through Montana and Democrats desperate to retain narrow control, total spending could exceed $315 million. That amounts nearly $500 for each of the state’s 648,000 active registered voters — a record for a congressional race on a per-voter basis, party officials have said.

Democrats were on pace to outspend Republicans by almost $50 million in the race, according to Federal Election Commission filings and data from the media tracking firm AdImpact.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Even if Tester carried the outstanding vote by an overwhelming margin, above what he was getting when the race was called, he wouldn't catch Sheehy.